Music Show Win Summary for the First Half of 2021 (Or: Is the 4th Generation Doing as Well as We Think?)

My 1000th post

As some of you may know, I maintain a database of music show wins, so I've decided to take a look at how wins are measuring up so far for the first half of the year (January 1 to June 27).

Now over the past couple months, I've been seeing a lot of posts declaring that the Fourth Generation of artists is taking over. In a way, it does "feel" like such a thing is happening, so I wanted to first break down all music show wins awarded this year by generation (using this article as a guide). Here are the results:

Generation 1: 1 win (0.75%)

Generation 2: 36 wins (27.07%)

Generation 3: 70 wins (52.63%)

Generation 4: 26 wins (19.55%)

TOTAL: 133 wins (100.00%)

Or in column chart format:

2021H1_WinsByGen.png

As we can see, Fourth Generation artists still have a long way to go before they're truly dominant. They've claimed 19.55% of the wins so far for 2021, which is only slightly higher than the 18.35% they won for all of 2020. That being said, I certainly expect this percentage to rise in the coming years.

Quote from onlyfacts

Congrats on your 1000th post.

May I know who from the "1st gen" won?

Thanks! So it was Rain, with his song "Switch to Me", featuring J. Y. Park.

Quote from Kaikat

Also aespa and stayc would have got more but stayc rose late ans aespa only had digitals and no album sales..

I think 26 wins is still huge for 4th gen when 2nd gen, 3rd gen artists are constantly coming back without breaks

Yeah I do think StayC and especially Aespa deserved better; in fact, Aespa actually has a chance of picking up a win this week.

Now take a look at the chart below, which I created earlier for another thread. You're right that the 2nd and 3rd Generations had the benefit of starting when their previous generations had already fallen off, whereas the 4th Generation still has to deal with constant comebacks from their predecessors. Perhaps we were too early in declaring the start of the 4th Generation...

GGWinsGens.png

Quote from Spsnowflakes

Tbf, I think there are way more active 3rd gen acts compared to other gens for now. Gen 1&2 are either disbanding or on hiatus, Gen 4 only started in 2018 so 4th gen don't have that many artist yet Ig.

Yeah I think this relates to my post immediately above yours. The transitions between Gen 1-Gen 2 and Gen 2-Gen 3 were much "cleaner", while Gen 3-Gen 4 is much "messier". Perhaps the 4th Generation didn't really start in 2018.

As a follow-up to my initial post, I'm including below a breakdown of wins by artist for each generation:

2021H1_Wins2G.png

2021H1_Wins3G.png

2021H1_Wins4G.png

Quote from Spsnowflakes

I don't think the transition btwn Gen2-Gen3 is "cleaner" compared to Gen3-Gen4 tbh (if I understand the term correctly). Also looking at your graph, somehow it seems to indicate that 3rd gen starts from 2014? but I think ppl in general considered 2012 as the start of 3rd gen, yk I believe most ppl categorize EXO as 3rd gen group and they debuted in 2012 and their 1st win was in 2013 iirc.

By "cleaner", I simply mean that there's a dramatic shift in the number of wins achieved per generation in a given year, which is what happened in 2015-2016.

So for boy groups, I agree that the Third Generation started with EXO. However, for girl groups, many people say that it started in 2014 with the debut of Mamamoo/Red Velvet, which is what I went with here (since the graph is girl groups-only).

Quote from Spsnowflakes

Oh yeah, I missed the word "GirlGroup" over there. Tho now I feel like I can't find that much correlation between that graph and the intial post in the OP. Since the graph is only for GG, while the post is taking account all artists (including soloist).

Ah sorry about the confusion. This thread is indeed supposed to be about all artists, but I pulled in that old girl group graph because I believe it does have some relevance. Specifically, it corroborates my point that the Fourth Generation had the "misfortune" of debuting at a time when the previous generation was still going strong.

Quote from Cosmicrhythm878

Are we even really in the 4th gen?

I find myself asking the same thing. I think we'll need to revisit the question in a couple years once we see how things play out.

Quote from Anpanromane

This means nothing. The best example would be aespa who's having a hit with no wins

I agree that "Next Level" deserves some wins, but even if Aespa was able to get those wins, they're only one group, so I don't think it would be enough to change the broader outlook for the 4th Generation.

To move on from the generations discussion, here's the complete ranking of music show wins by artist for the first half of 2021 (January 1 to June 27):

BTS: 19 wins

IU: 19 wins

(G)I-dle: 10 wins

Kang Daniel: 9 wins

Brave Girls: 8 wins

NCT Dream: 8 wins

Shinee: 6 wins

Rosé: 6 wins

Twice: 5 wins

Itzy: 5 wins

NU'EST: 4 wins

TXT: 4 wins

Astro: 3 wins

Enhypen: 3 wins

Oh My Girl: 3 wins

Golden Child: 2 wins

Kim Woo Seok: 2 wins

Lim Young-woong: 2 wins

Highlight: 2 wins

KyeongSeo: 1 win

Rain: 1 win

NCT U: 1 win

Aespa: 1 win

U-Know Yunho: 1 win

ONF: 1 win

Ateez: 1 win

Cosmic Girls: 1 win

Baekhyun: 1 win

Everglow: 1 win

Ha Sung-woon: 1 win

Exo: 1 win

Seventeen: 1 win

TOTAL: 133 wins

Quote from Artemosia

I still believe people labelled anything from 2018-2019 (some even 2017) "4th gen" because it felt better to only compare the newly debuted groups' so-so results in comparison with earlier 3th gen groups with their own. Giving 2010-2011 2nd gen vibes. Every data I see confirms 4th gen debut is a last year/this year thing if we really have to call it started

You might be on to something here. I could see a scenario in which, a few years from now, we revise the start of the Fourth Generation from 2018 to the 2020 debuts of StayC/Aespa (analogous to the 2014 debuts of Mamamoo/Red Velvet).

Quote from chounim

I got crucified when I made a thread about this before. People just want to force their faves to be on top even if it means creating an imaginary generation for them.

Now given that you're an NCT fan, I'm curious, do you consider them Third or Fourth Generation? I've heard both arguments from people before.

Quote from onlyfacts

BTS had 50 wins last year. It will be difficult to reach that mark this year but never say never. Cuz I think they will promote as soon as fans are allowed to attend these music shows. Also they had 16 wins by this time in 2020, they have 19 already.

I think it really depends on how many comebacks BTS will have for the remainder of 2021. If they have one, it's extremely unlikely they'll reach 50 wins. With two, it becomes doable, and with three, pretty likely I'd say.

Quote from hokiedood

I consider MNet as an authority on things K-Pop. On Kingdom they listed 2018 idols as 4th gen so I'm going with that.

Yeah I think 2018 is the consensus year currently, but I do wonder if the industry will re-evaluate the 4th Generation start date in the future, once we have a better picture of how everything plays out.

Quote from 4d-maknae

Music shows don't really mean much as whole since you have periods where there's an empty house and anyone can win, and others where 3 acts deserve to win but only one does

If we're talking about the performance of individual songs, then I agree. Timing can make a big difference, as we can see with Next Level. June has been a very "full house", so the song probably would've done better had it been released at the start of the year, when things were considerably "emptier".

However, if we're aggregating music show win data across long time periods or across many different artists, then I believe the effects of a "full house" or "empty house" can basically cancel each other out, making is safer to draw certain conclusions.

And now here's the complete ranking of songs with the most wins for the first half of 2021 (January 1 to June 27):

Butter – BTS: 12 wins

Celebrity – IU: 11 wins

Hwaa – (G)I-dle: 10 wins

Lilac – IU: 8 wins

Hot Sauce – NCT Dream: 8 wins

Rollin' – Brave Girls: 7 wins

Don't Call Me – Shinee: 6 wins

On the Ground – Rosé: 6 wins

Antidote – Kang Daniel: 5 wins

In the Morning – Itzy: 5 wins

Dynamite – BTS: 4 wins

Paranoia – Kang Daniel: 4 wins

Inside Out – NU'EST: 4 wins

0x1=Lovesong (I Know I Love You) – TXT: 4 wins

Alcohol-Free – Twice: 4 wins

Life Goes On – BTS: 3 wins

One – Astro: 3 wins

Drunk-Dazed – Enhypen: 3 wins

Dun Dun Dance – Oh My Girl: 3 wins

Burn It – Golden Child: 2 wins

Sugar – Kim Woo Seok: 2 wins

My Starry Love – Lim Young-woong: 2 wins

Not The End – Highlight: 2 wins

I Can't Stop Me – Twice: 1 win

Shiny Star (2020) – KyeongSeo: 1 win

Switch to Me (duet with J. Y. Park) – Rain: 1 win

90's Love – NCT U: 1 win

Black Mamba – Aespa: 1 win

Thank U – U-Know Yunho: 1 win

Beautiful Beautiful – ONF: 1 win

Fireworks (I'm The One) – Ateez: 1 win

Unnatural – Cosmic Girls: 1 win

Bambi – Baekhyun: 1 win

First – Everglow: 1 win

Sneakers – Ha Sung-woon: 1 win

Don't Fight the Feeling – EXO: 1 win

Chi Mat Ba Ram – Brave Girls: 1 win

Ready to Love – Seventeen: 1 win

TOTAL: 133 wins

Quote from kaisica

I have a gut feeling that next year will be the defining year for 4th Gen much like 2016 was for 3rd Gen when Twice, BP, Mamamoo, RV & Gfriend were topping the charts.

Seeing the rise of Aespa and StayC’s dominance on the charts this year and ITZY charting at a similar level to Twice more or less confirms that transition is coming sooner than we think. Once YGNGG and BHNGG debuts it’ll be in full swing. It’ll be interesting to see your data at the end of 2022

Yes, this is basically what I'm thinking as well. Now assuming that 2022 is the 4th Generation equivalent of 2016 (i.e. a distinct generational shift), do this mean that the 4th Generation started in 2020 instead of 2018?

Quote from Alex_Murphy

Before wondering if 4th gen starts indeed in 2018 or later, maybe you should agree on what defines a k-pop generation. Pretty sure your definition is not the same as others used elsewhere so the whole argument feels kinda pointless.

I'm using this AKP article as my guide. I believe it matches the general consensus on generational breakdowns. Is that not the case?

Quote from 4d-maknae

But would it be fair to count music shows like The Show where only the acts attending can be nominated? Many acts have taken advantage of that to get multiple wins

I re-ran my numbers with The Show excluded, and it turns out that doing so doesn't affect the results very much at all:

Generation 1: 1 win (0.87%)

Generation 2: 33 wins (28.70%)

Generation 3: 60 wins (52.17%)

Generation 4: 21 wins (18.26%)

TOTAL: 115 wins (100.00%)