For my latest music show analytics thread, I decided to look at how music show wins have risen and fallen over time for each generation of girl groups. What inspired this analysis was seeing numerous posts like this one by salem9, all discussing how older groups are still dominating and not making way for Fourth Generation groups to rise up.
Methodology: As some of you may already know, I've created a large database of music show wins, which I update regularly. For this analysis, I first assigned a generation to each girl group win, based on the classification schema described in this AKP article (I combined ".5" generations with their main generations). With that done, it was easy to filter the data by year and generation to come up with a table of wins for each generation, broken down by year. Then, I just had to present the data in chart form, the result of which is shown below. Note that my numbers are up to date as of the end of 2020, and the chart starts in 1998 since that's when S.E.S. recorded their first win.
As we can see, there was a rather "clean" hand-off between the First Generation and the Second Generation. The transition between the Second and Third Generations wasn't quite as sharp, but still, there is a clear "changing of the guard" between 2015 and 2016.
However, the Fourth Generation is starting out at a time when older groups are still performing very strongly, which is unprecedented. I do believe that the Fourth Generation will eventually come to dominate, but it will be a slower process compared to what we have witnessed in the past.