Adjusting Girl Group Music Show Wins to Account for Win Inflation Over the Years

  • A while back, on my old forum thread comparing music show wins for top girl groups, dizzcity posted the following: I wonder if there could be some sort of "inflation-adjusted" chart to take into account how the number of music shows (and thus the rate of music show wins) have been increasing over the years?


    That gave me the idea to examine the number of music show wins awarded per year, and create the aforementioned "inflation-adjusted" graph of girl group wins.


    The first thing I did was to simply go through my win database and determine how many wins were given for each year. The results are shown below:



    As we can see, the number of music show wins increased dramatically in the 1990s, peaking around the same time as the top First Generation groups before declining noticeably in the early 2000s "soloist era".


    However, the annual win count started rising again around 2007 and has steadily increased before leveling off in recent years.


    In my initial post linked above, I was only concerned with Second Generation and later girl groups, so for the purposes of this analysis, I'll only be looking at years 2007 and beyond.


    In the table below, I show the both the raw number of music show wins awarded per year, along with an inflation scaling factor. This factor is determined by dividing the number of wins per year by the number of wins awarded in the base year of 2007.


    Year Wins Awarded
    Inflation Scaling Factor
    2007 136 ÷ 136 = 1.00
    2008 131 ÷ 136 = 0.96
    2009 143 ÷ 136 = 1.05
    2010 148 ÷ 136 = 1.09
    2011 156 ÷ 136 = 1.15
    2012 177 ÷ 136 = 1.30
    2013 227 ÷ 136 = 1.67
    2014 228 ÷ 136 = 1.68
    2015 270 ÷ 136 = 1.99
    2016 227 ÷ 136 = 1.67
    2017 245 ÷ 136 = 1.80
    2018 264 ÷ 136 = 1.94
    2019 272 ÷ 136 = 2.00
    2020 267 ÷ 136 = 1.96



    For example, in 2019 we had a total of 272 wins awarded, compared to exactly half that number (136) in 2007. Thus, 272 ÷ 136 = 2.00, which means that a win in 2019 will be divided by 2 to account for inflation. In effect, a win in 2019 is only worth the equivalent of half a win from 2007. Or, since there were double the amount of wins awarded in 2019 compared to 2007, an artist would have to will twice as much in order to capture the same percentage of wins. Hopefully this makes sense to everyone.


    To be continued in the next post...

  • Ok, now that I had all the yearly inflation scaling factors, I simply applied those factors to each girl group's yearly win count. My calculations are shown below. Note that my numbers are up to date as of the end of 2020.



    The upper table shows the nominal (or raw) wins achieved by each group over each year of interest, along with running totals in adjacent columns (the "Σ"). The lower table is similar, except that I've applied the scaling inflation factors to each yearly win count.


    I can now present inflation-adjusted win totals for each group, which are shown below along with nominal wins.


    Ranking by Nominal Wins
    Ranking by Inflation-Adjusted Wins
    Change in Rank
    #1. Twice - 112 wins
    #1. Girls' Generation - 79.21 wins +1
    #2. Girls' Generation - 100 wins
    #2. Twice - 60.83 wins -1
    #3. Red Velvet - 73 wins
    #3. Wonder Girls - 42.13 wins +3
    #4. GFriend - 71 wins
    #4. GFriend - 39.08 wins --
    #5. Apink - 51 wins
    #5. Red Velvet - 38.78 wins -2
    #6. Wonder Girls - 45 wins
    #6. 2NE1 - 35.84 wins +1
    #7T. 2NE1 - 43 wins
    #7. Apink - 28.49 wins -2
    #7T. Sistar - 43 wins #8. Sistar - 27.20 wins -1
    #7T. Blackpink - 43 wins #9. f(x) - 23.53 wins +3
    #10. Mamamoo - 42 wins
    #10. T-ara - 23.32 wins +3
    #11. Itzy - 34 wins
    #11. Blackpink - 22.53 wins -4
    #12. f(x) - 33 wins
    #12. Mamamoo - 22.45 wins -2
    #13. T-ara - 28 wins
    #13. Kara - 21.67 wins +1
    #14T. Kara - 26 wins
    #14. Itzy - 17.12 wins -3
    #14T. Iz*One - 26 wins
    #15. 4Minute - 14.91 wins +1
    #16. 4Minute - 23 wins
    #16. Iz*One - 13.20 wins -2
    #17. EXID - 22 wins
    #17. EXID - 11.68 wins --


    So what does this all mean? Well it means that, taking into account inflation, newer girl groups may not be doing as well as their raw win numbers would suggest. Notice how older groups generally see their rankings improve once inflation adjustments are applied.


    In effect, newer girl groups may tend to have more wins since there are simply a lot more wins being awarded each year currently, compared to what we saw in the Second Generation era.


    To be continued in the next post...

  • Interesting thread. Thx for your work.

    In effect, newer girl groups may tend to have more wins since there are simply a lot more wins being awarded each year currently, compared to what we saw in the Second Generation era.

    We already know that. That's just confirm that fact.

    But I think such reasoning is incorrect. We now have more awards, but we also have more society and group. The groups are also now competing on the national and international market, which was not the case before.

  • Wouldn’t this work against a group like BLACKPINK though? They only attend 2 shows and most of their wins do not come from shows that didn’t exist when older groups existed. inflation wouldn’t really affect them like it would other groups in this manner.

  • Wouldn’t this work against a group like BLACKPINK though? They only attend 2 shows and most of their wins do not come from shows that didn’t exist when older groups existed. inflation wouldn’t really affect them like it would other groups in this manner.

    This might work against groups that don't take "advantage" of the many music shows. Also this formula doesn't take into account the new triple crown rule that was implemented in many music shows. This would also be cool to see the win% of each girls, meaning the % the group was winning when they participated. For the last 5 years i anticipate BP to be first with fewer releases and fewer attendance. Twice most likely plummeted their win% in the last 2 years with multiple clashes with big groups.

  • Interesting thread. Thx for your work.

    We already know that. That's just confirm that fact.

    But I think such reasoning is incorrect. We now have more awards, but we also have more society and group. The groups are also now competing on the national and international market, which was not the case before.

    well said

  • This might work against groups that don't take "advantage" of the many music shows. Also this formula doesn't take into account the new triple crown rule that was implemented in many music shows. This would also be cool to see the win% of each girls, meaning the % the group was winning when they participated. For the last 5 years i anticipate BP to be first with fewer releases and fewer attendance. Twice most likely plummeted their win% in the last 2 years with multiple clashes with big groups.

    interesting perspective so you're essentially saying divide the number of total wins by the total number of music shows each group has attended?

    i can agree with that

  • interesting perspective so you're essentially saying divide the number of total wins by the total number of music shows each group has attended?

    i can agree with that

    No this wouldn't make sense as there is too little sample size and it would absolutely destroyed comebacks that overlapped between big groups. Just adding win% as an additional stat to get further context is better. Dividing isn't the solution.

  • No this wouldn't make sense as there is too little sample size and it would absolutely destroyed comebacks that overlapped between big groups. Just adding win% as an additional stat to get further context is better. Dividing isn't the solution.

    sorry i'm a bit confused now by what you mean by win%

    it seemed like in your original post that you meant % the group was winning when they psrticipated so as in wins over participation...can you maybe claify it for me

  • sorry i'm a bit confused now by what you mean by win%

    it seemed like in your original post that you meant % the group was winning when they psrticipated so as in wins over participation...can you maybe claify it for me

    I just think that a chart about the win% of groups of each generation would be cool and add more context to these graphs. Not combining them.

  • Thank you, great work! Interesting to see how so many of the 2nd-gen groups rose in rank after the adjustments. (I was especially surprised at how much the Wonder Girls rose... they were a lot more celebrated than I thought). I had a sneaking suspicion that SNSD and TWICE would switch places at the top given the inflation adjustments, and I see your results bear that idea out. Still, looking at the graphs, TWICE's trajectory is actually rising faster than SNSD's was at a similar stage in their career, so I'm not too worried about their future - all they need to do is accumulate longevity and a steady win rate to eventually overtake SNSD. Pretty impressed with Gfriend staying extremely solid and maintaining their position, even after inflation adjustment.

  • Very interesting way of analysing music show wins in a fairer manner.


    There are still however factors that need to be taken into account, such as music shows awarding points for appearances (which as someone said puts groups like BLACKPINK at a disadvantage), and boycotts.


    For example, during the beginning of SNSD's peak SM artists were boycotting Mnet (M Countdown). This meant that songs like Gee, Genie, Oh, Run Devil Run, Hoot could only possibly get wins from 2 music shows

    The breakdown of SNSD's wins brings more light to how unfortunate the timing was https://katherinedoeskpop.word…sic-show-wins-and-awards/

  • So in the overall scheme of things what does this mean? That wins are losing relevance because they are easier to get? Or is it a gg is more favored by the GP thing

    I wouldn't say it means wins are easier, you still need successful comebacks. I would say successful comebacks earn more wins.


    For example: SNSD Lion Heart (2015) won 15 times but if it was released in 2009 it would have won 7-10 times. Conversely, Gee (2009) won 14 times but if it was released in 2015 it would have won 20+ times easily.


    This is obviously ignoring music trends, just analysis comeback success.

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