Music Show Win Summary for the First Half of 2021 (Or: Is the 4th Generation Doing as Well as We Think?)

  • My 1000th post


    As some of you may know, I maintain a database of music show wins, so I've decided to take a look at how wins are measuring up so far for the first half of the year (January 1 to June 27).


    Now over the past couple months, I've been seeing a lot of posts declaring that the Fourth Generation of artists is taking over. In a way, it does "feel" like such a thing is happening, so I wanted to first break down all music show wins awarded this year by generation (using this article as a guide). Here are the results:


    Generation 1: 1 win (0.75%)

    Generation 2: 36 wins (27.07%)

    Generation 3: 70 wins (52.63%)

    Generation 4: 26 wins (19.55%)

    TOTAL: 133 wins (100.00%)


    Or in column chart format:


    2021H1_WinsByGen.png


    As we can see, Fourth Generation artists still have a long way to go before they're truly dominant. They've claimed 19.55% of the wins so far for 2021, which is only slightly higher than the 18.35% they won for all of 2020. That being said, I certainly expect this percentage to rise in the coming years.

    Edited 2 times, last by wsoet ().

  • Congrats on your 1000th post.

    May I know who from the "1st gen" won?

    I don't know wich 1st gen artists are still active, but I could imagine that it might be Kangta since he is the only still active 1st gen idol under SM Entertainment and I don't know any other 1st gen artist who is still active in 2021. But I am not 100% sure on that since I don't know who is still active besides him

    A.C.E | ATEEZ | DRIPPIN| MCND | NU'EST | ONF | SF9 | Stray Kids | TFN

  • Also aespa and stayc would have got more but stayc rose late ans aespa only had digitals and no album sales..


    I think 26 wins is still huge for 4th gen when 2nd gen, 3rd gen artists are constantly coming back without breaks

    Yeah I do think StayC and especially Aespa deserved better; in fact, Aespa actually has a chance of picking up a win this week.


    Now take a look at the chart below, which I created earlier for another thread. You're right that the 2nd and 3rd Generations had the benefit of starting when their previous generations had already fallen off, whereas the 4th Generation still has to deal with constant comebacks from their predecessors. Perhaps we were too early in declaring the start of the 4th Generation...


    GGWinsGens.png

  • Tbf, I think there are way more active 3rd gen acts compared to other gens for now. Gen 1&2 are either disbanding or on hiatus, Gen 4 only started in 2018 so 4th gen don't have that many artist yet Ig.

  • Tbf, I think there are way more active 3rd gen acts compared to other gens for now. Gen 1&2 are either disbanding or on hiatus, Gen 4 only started in 2018 so 4th gen don't have that many artist yet Ig.

    Yeah I think this relates to my post immediately above yours. The transitions between Gen 1-Gen 2 and Gen 2-Gen 3 were much "cleaner", while Gen 3-Gen 4 is much "messier". Perhaps the 4th Generation didn't really start in 2018.

  • Yeah I think this relates to my post immediately above yours. The transitions between Gen 1-Gen 2 and Gen 2-Gen 3 were much "cleaner", while Gen 3-Gen 4 is much "messier". Perhaps the 4th Generation didn't really start in 2018.

    I don't think the transition btwn Gen2-Gen3 is "cleaner" compared to Gen3-Gen4 tbh (if I understand the term correctly). At the beginning of 3rd gen, 2nd gen artists are still dominate as well iirc. Also looking at your graph, somehow it seems to indicate that 3rd gen starts from 2014? but I think ppl in general considered 2012 as the start of 3rd gen, yk I believe most ppl categorize EXO as 3rd gen group and they debuted in 2012 and their 1st win was in 2013 iirc.

  • I don't think the transition btwn Gen2-Gen3 is "cleaner" compared to Gen3-Gen4 tbh (if I understand the term correctly). Also looking at your graph, somehow it seems to indicate that 3rd gen starts from 2014? but I think ppl in general considered 2012 as the start of 3rd gen, yk I believe most ppl categorize EXO as 3rd gen group and they debuted in 2012 and their 1st win was in 2013 iirc.

    By "cleaner", I simply mean that there's a dramatic shift in the number of wins achieved per generation in a given year, which is what happened in 2015-2016.


    So for boy groups, I agree that the Third Generation started with EXO. However, for girl groups, many people say that it started in 2014 with the debut of Mamamoo/Red Velvet, which is what I went with here (since the graph is girl groups-only).

  • By "cleaner", I simply mean that there's a dramatic shift in the number of wins achieved per generation in a given year, which is what happened in 2015-2016.


    So for boy groups, I agree that the Third Generation started with EXO. However, for girl groups, many people say that it started in 2014 with the debut of Mamamoo/Red Velvet, which is what I went with here (since the graph is girl groups-only).

    Oh yeah, I missed the word "GirlGroup" over there. Tho now I feel like I can't find that much correlation between that graph and the intial post in the OP. Since the graph is only for GG, while the post is taking account all artists (including soloist).

  • Oh yeah, I missed the word "GirlGroup" over there. Tho now I feel like I can't find that much correlation between that graph and the intial post in the OP. Since the graph is only for GG, while the post is taking account all artists (including soloist).

    Ah sorry about the confusion. This thread is indeed supposed to be about all artists, but I pulled in that old girl group graph because I believe it does have some relevance. Specifically, it corroborates my point that the Fourth Generation had the "misfortune" of debuting at a time when the previous generation was still going strong.

  • To move on from the generations discussion, here's the complete ranking of music show wins by artist for the first half of 2021 (January 1 to June 27):


    BTS: 19 wins

    IU: 19 wins

    (G)I-dle: 10 wins

    Kang Daniel: 9 wins

    Brave Girls: 8 wins

    NCT Dream: 8 wins

    Shinee: 6 wins

    Rosé: 6 wins

    Twice: 5 wins

    Itzy: 5 wins

    NU'EST: 4 wins

    TXT: 4 wins

    Astro: 3 wins

    Enhypen: 3 wins

    Oh My Girl: 3 wins

    Golden Child: 2 wins

    Kim Woo Seok: 2 wins

    Lim Young-woong: 2 wins

    Highlight: 2 wins

    KyeongSeo: 1 win

    Rain: 1 win

    NCT U: 1 win

    Aespa: 1 win

    U-Know Yunho: 1 win

    ONF: 1 win

    Ateez: 1 win

    Cosmic Girls: 1 win

    Baekhyun: 1 win

    Everglow: 1 win

    Ha Sung-woon: 1 win

    Exo: 1 win

    Seventeen: 1 win

    TOTAL: 133 wins

  • I still believe people labelled anything from 2018-2019 (some even 2017) "4th gen" because it felt better to only compare the newly debuted groups' so-so results in comparison with earlier 3th gen groups with their own. Giving 2010-2011 2nd gen vibes. Every data I see confirms 4th gen debut is a last year/this year thing if we really have to call it started

    I got crucified when I made a thread about this before. People just want to force their faves to be on top even if it means creating an imaginary generation for them.

  • BTS had 50 wins last year. It will be difficult to reach that mark this year but never say never. Cuz I think they will promote as soon as fans are allowed to attend these music shows. Also they had 16 wins by this time in 2020, they have 19 already.

  • I still believe people labelled anything from 2018-2019 (some even 2017) "4th gen" because it felt better to only compare the newly debuted groups' so-so results in comparison with earlier 3th gen groups with their own. Giving 2010-2011 2nd gen vibes. Every data I see confirms 4th gen debut is a last year/this year thing if we really have to call it started

    You might be on to something here. I could see a scenario in which, a few years from now, we revise the start of the Fourth Generation from 2018 to the 2020 debuts of StayC/Aespa (analogous to the 2014 debuts of Mamamoo/Red Velvet).

  • I got crucified when I made a thread about this before. People just want to force their faves to be on top even if it means creating an imaginary generation for them.

    Now given that you're an NCT fan, I'm curious, do you consider them Third or Fourth Generation? I've heard both arguments from people before.

  • Now given that you're an NCT fan, I'm curious, do you consider them Third or Fourth Generation? I've heard both arguments from people before.

    Considering that I don't think 4th generation started to begin with, definitely not that lol.


    But either way NCT are a special case and in the long run the generation system won't apply to them.

  • BTS had 50 wins last year. It will be difficult to reach that mark this year but never say never. Cuz I think they will promote as soon as fans are allowed to attend these music shows. Also they had 16 wins by this time in 2020, they have 19 already.

    I think it really depends on how many comebacks BTS will have for the remainder of 2021. If they have one, it's extremely unlikely they'll reach 50 wins. With two, it becomes doable, and with three, pretty likely I'd say.

  • BTS had 50 wins last year. It will be difficult to reach that mark this year but never say never. Cuz I think they will promote as soon as fans are allowed to attend these music shows. Also they had 16 wins by this time in 2020, they have 19 already.

    difficult for 50 this year. they really changed the rules because of dynamite. :pepe-hehe:

  • I consider MNet as an authority on things K-Pop. On Kingdom they listed 2018 idols as 4th gen so I'm going with that.

    Yeah I think 2018 is the consensus year currently, but I do wonder if the industry will re-evaluate the 4th Generation start date in the future, once we have a better picture of how everything plays out.

  • Music shows don't really mean much as whole since you have periods where there's an empty house and anyone can win, and others where 3 acts deserve to win but only one does

    If we're talking about the performance of individual songs, then I agree. Timing can make a big difference, as we can see with Next Level. June has been a very "full house", so the song probably would've done better had it been released at the start of the year, when things were considerably "emptier".


    However, if we're aggregating music show win data across long time periods or across many different artists, then I believe the effects of a "full house" or "empty house" can basically cancel each other out, making is safer to draw certain conclusions.

  • And now here's the complete ranking of songs with the most wins for the first half of 2021 (January 1 to June 27):


    ButterBTS: 12 wins

    Celebrity – IU: 11 wins

    Hwaa – (G)I-dle: 10 wins

    Lilac – IU: 8 wins

    Hot Sauce – NCT Dream: 8 wins

    Rollin' – Brave Girls: 7 wins

    Don't Call Me – Shinee: 6 wins

    On the Ground – Rosé: 6 wins

    Antidote – Kang Daniel: 5 wins

    In the Morning – Itzy: 5 wins

    Dynamite – BTS: 4 wins

    Paranoia – Kang Daniel: 4 wins

    Inside Out – NU'EST: 4 wins

    0x1=Lovesong (I Know I Love You) – TXT: 4 wins

    Alcohol-Free – Twice: 4 wins

    Life Goes On – BTS: 3 wins

    One – Astro: 3 wins

    Drunk-Dazed – Enhypen: 3 wins

    Dun Dun Dance – Oh My Girl: 3 wins

    Burn It – Golden Child: 2 wins

    Sugar – Kim Woo Seok: 2 wins

    My Starry Love – Lim Young-woong: 2 wins

    Not The End – Highlight: 2 wins

    I Can't Stop Me – Twice: 1 win

    Shiny Star (2020) – KyeongSeo: 1 win

    Switch to Me (duet with J. Y. Park) – Rain: 1 win

    90's Love – NCT U: 1 win

    Black MambaAespa: 1 win

    Thank U – U-Know Yunho: 1 win

    Beautiful Beautiful – ONF: 1 win

    Fireworks (I'm The One) – Ateez: 1 win

    Unnatural – Cosmic Girls: 1 win

    Bambi – Baekhyun: 1 win

    First – Everglow: 1 win

    Sneakers – Ha Sung-woon: 1 win

    Don't Fight the Feeling – EXO: 1 win

    Chi Mat Ba Ram – Brave Girls: 1 win

    Ready to LoveSeventeen: 1 win

    TOTAL: 133 wins

  • I have a gut feeling that next year will be the defining year for 4th Gen much like 2016 was for 3rd Gen when Twice, BP, Mamamoo, RV & Gfriend were topping the charts.


    Seeing the rise of Aespa and StayC’s dominance on the charts this year and ITZY charting at a similar level to Twice more or less confirms that transition is coming sooner than we think. Once YGNGG and BHNGG debuts it’ll be in full swing. It’ll be interesting to see your data at the end of 2022

  • I have a gut feeling that next year will be the defining year for 4th Gen much like 2016 was for 3rd Gen when Twice, BP, Mamamoo, RV & Gfriend were topping the charts.


    Seeing the rise of Aespa and StayC’s dominance on the charts this year and ITZY charting at a similar level to Twice more or less confirms that transition is coming sooner than we think. Once YGNGG and BHNGG debuts it’ll be in full swing. It’ll be interesting to see your data at the end of 2022

    Yes, this is basically what I'm thinking as well. Now assuming that 2022 is the 4th Generation equivalent of 2016 (i.e. a distinct generational shift), do this mean that the 4th Generation started in 2020 instead of 2018?

  • If we're talking about the performance of individual songs, then I agree. Timing can make a big difference, as we can see with Next Level. June has been a very "full house", so the song probably would've done better had it been released at the start of the year, when things were considerably "emptier".


    However, if we're aggregating music show win data across long time periods or across many different artists, then I believe the effects of a "full house" or "empty house" can basically cancel each other out, making is safer to draw certain conclusions.

    But would it be fair to count music shows like The Show where only the acts attending can be nominated? Many acts have taken advantage of that to get multiple wins

  • But would it be fair to count music shows like The Show where only the acts attending can be nominated? Many acts have taken advantage of that to get multiple wins

    Only The Show works this way. Other music shows have different sets of rules in order to be nominated, but none require to perform on the music show. And because The Show is only once a week (obviously) and cancelled more often than the others (because of covid, holidays or whatever), it doesn't weigh that much in the overall picture.

  • Before wondering if 4th gen starts indeed in 2018 or later, maybe you should agree on what defines a k-pop generation. Pretty sure your definition is not the same as others used elsewhere so the whole argument feels kinda pointless.

    I'm using this AKP article as my guide. I believe it matches the general consensus on generational breakdowns. Is that not the case?

  • But would it be fair to count music shows like The Show where only the acts attending can be nominated? Many acts have taken advantage of that to get multiple wins

    I re-ran my numbers with The Show excluded, and it turns out that doing so doesn't affect the results very much at all:


    Generation 1: 1 win (0.87%)

    Generation 2: 33 wins (28.70%)

    Generation 3: 60 wins (52.17%)

    Generation 4: 21 wins (18.26%)

    TOTAL: 115 wins (100.00%)

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