Theory: Mid tier groups only have 1 year to make it or else they're destined to flop

Hmm idk cause there is also OMG

They were mid-tier for a long time till they exploded

They could be the exception to the rule

But yeah I hate the whole mentality of if I didnt stan them since day 1, I wont pay them even dust if I like their music now

Quote from Hopkinz

Had they gotten a first win with their debut, they'd probably be at least WJSN's level of popularity toda

Dreamcatcher still don't have win but can sell decently.

non big 3 or hype groups literally have no chance

many will struggle once current rising 4th gen groups get bigger

Ive, StayC and (G)-Idle are the only ones that can have at least moderate success. Basically if stars are aligned for them Ive could be one of the top groups.

for bgs TBZ and ATZ could have moderate success.

With the rise of physical sales it doesn’t really matter yeah it’s cool to have digitals but if you have a solid fanbase you will have a great longevity. Weeekly, Loona, Dreamcatcher don’t have a hit but they have a solid fanbase.

Billlie are growing but I don’t think they will have at least a moderate hit, they got lucky because Tsuki went viral, but at least their next cb can sell +100k.

Quote from Lulu_Key

Hmm idk cause there is also OMG

They were mid-tier for a long time till they exploded

They could be the exception to the rule

But yeah I hate the whole mentality of if I didnt stan them since day 1, I wont pay them even dust if I like their music now

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Unfortunately the groups who blew up late in their career like OMG and BG only can get like short span of attention, (their songs are underperforming lately) people eventually flock to newer groups, in the end still has to fight for their lives

Maybe the music doesn't connect? Also the group lacking it factor? Now u would say with ioi members how? 1/2 members don't make difference, the whole group needs to offer something. That's why they can't even get loona or dreamcatcher level fandom

The kpop industry is ridiculously over saturated, it's practically impossible for a huge majority of groups to be satisfactorily successful. At the same time, the kpop community, especially internationally, is infested with success stans. They latch on rookie groups from big to mid companies or ones with previously popular members with the hope they'll hit big upon debut, or at most during the first year. If they don't, they'll move on to the next promising rookie.

It's possible but very hard. BTS were nobodys almost 3 years into their career.

Teens and young adults aren't PRIMARILY interested in vocals, dancing abilities or talent for that matter. VISUALS is the #1 criteria for most (i did say for most). They want to be associated with acts that look good on a badge or a billboard. As long as it goes boom boom boom (no pun intended), its all that matters, really. If that group happens to have a decent hit along the way, they explode in popularity based on the aforementioned base requirement. Does anyone here honestly think that Big Agencies are looking for VOCALS? Nahhh, they're looking for models that can be properly auto-tuned and "visually enhanced" (you know what i mean), to a certain degree.

I'm not speaking out of frustration, i'm merely exposing a Fact that one realizes when they reach their mid-twenties. I Love Kpop! But I'm not blind either!

It certainly feels that way

Those groups need a lot of luck and timming too, like big companies groups can lack that bc they have infinite resources but smaller ones dont have that advangte

Its a once in a lifetime chance that may never cmb

I agree that yes - if you don't hit big within 2 years of debut - its likely never going to happen. The best the group can hope for is solid mid tier.

But I also think what the groups OP mentioned all have in common is - They are not big 3 company groups

these mid tier companies - don't stay the course on their investment and hold steady which contributes to the failure of these groups to secure a decent fanbase. They throw in the towel early and stop giving consistent comebacks or panic and have major concept changes that alienate fans - Weekly and CLC are 2 good examples of this.

Whereas a company like SM has the resources to see their vision through and continue to spend money till it works.

Hmmm, I feel like it's 50-50. I also have to say that while K-Pop is oversaturated, it has grown a lot and you don't need to be top tier or even mid tier to survive. If you have a big enough fandom, you can do well. I'd say mid-tier and low-tier nowadays are in a much better position than 5/10 years ago because of the rise of album sales and overall K-Pop fandom and possibility to tour on more countries... A lot of big names from 2nd or even 3rd gen ended up getting disbanded by their companies early because they weren't making the money many people thought they were.

Nowadays, groups like Purple Kiss or Lightsum which you mentioned sell more than what CLC ever did even though they seem to be on a lower tier when it comes to popularity...

What's true is that the gap between the big and mid-tier companies seem to be bigger, and becoming a top group from a nugu or even mid-tier company is almost unthinkable, but that's because the industry is also more established.