Theory: Mid tier groups only have 1 year to make it or else they're destined to flop

    I've been thinking, we've unfortunately created culture where we're only interested in the new. After a couple years, if that group hasn't had a "hit" we move on and never give them a chance even if their music is good. This trend started noticeably in the 3rd gen, but it was even happening in the 2nd gen. Lots of middle tier girl groups have really strong starts, a comeback which is also moderately successful, then they fall off the face of the earth in terms of relevancy and there's nothing they can do to release a hit.


    Gugudan

    Weki Meki

    Cherry Bullet

    Rocket Punch


    These are all groups who have experienced this phenomenon. Had they gotten a first win with their debut, they'd probably be at least WJSN's level of popularity today. So close to reaching success, but because they barely missed it, now nobody cares. Perhaps thats why so many people are discussing "this group is the new nation's leader" when they just debuted because this is their crucial time to make it or the only time they really care because "look new group, I stanned since day 1" It makes me think about how people say Pristin would be a top tier group if they didn't disband. Tbh I think they would have suffered a similar fate because it would have been too late to make it and people would have moved on.


    I also think about, what if (G)i-dle didn't debut when they did. They literally had perfect timing for their debut to get a first win fast. Had there been lots of competition, they might have be at CLC's level of popularity today. IVE is another one who had really lucky timing and a really good song. Now they're destined to be a top tier group, but if their debut wasn't so strong, they'd struggle.


    I also think about how Purple Kiss and Weeekly are kinda experiencing this right now. Billlie is in an okay position right now, this next comeback will be crucial. Lightsum and Tri.be better comeback soon because it's gonna be too late. Secret Number has also fallen fast in terms of popularity.


    Sure there are a few exceptions, but not many. Fromis9 was able to grow gradually but they were lucky they got acquired by Pledis/Hybe and that took them to the next level; they got that push they needed. A group could go viral after promoting for years like Brave Girls or Momoland, but that popularity usually doesn't last. Dream Catcher has been able to steadily grow I guess but they've been popular internationally since debut so they essentially "made it" overseas even if they didn't in Korea. Same with Loona.


    Just random thoughts. This was kinda longer than I was expecting. I just wish if an older group released a genuinely good song, we gave it a chance. That never happens which is too bad.

    Hmm idk cause there is also OMG

    They were mid-tier for a long time till they exploded


    They could be the exception to the rule


    But yeah I hate the whole mentality of if I didnt stan them since day 1, I wont pay them even dust if I like their music now

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    non big 3 or hype groups literally have no chance

    many will struggle once current rising 4th gen groups get bigger

    Ive, StayC and (G)-Idle are the only ones that can have at least moderate success. Basically if stars are aligned for them Ive could be one of the top groups.

    for bgs TBZ and ATZ could have moderate success.

    Unfortunately the groups who blew up late in their career like OMG and BG only can get like short span of attention, (their songs are underperforming lately) people eventually flock to newer groups, in the end still has to fight for their lives

    I knew I was forgetting somebody. Yeah Oh My Girl are the only real exception to this mindset. They were able to grow gradually and got their big hit late into their career.

    Quote from jinaland

    non big 3 or hype groups literally have no chance

    many will struggle once current rising 4th gen groups get bigger

    Ive, StayC and (G)-Idle are the only ones that can have at least moderate success. Basically if stars are aligned for them Ive could be one of the top groups.

    for bgs TBZ and ATZ could have moderate success.

    Yes, I knew I was forgetting about another successful girl group. Yeah StayC again was lucky and had their viral hit with their first comeback. Let's say they released a song other than Asap, Stayc would probably be in the same boat as like Purple Kiss right now.

    Maybe the music doesn't connect? Also the group lacking it factor? Now u would say with ioi members how? 1/2 members don't make difference, the whole group needs to offer something. That's why they can't even get loona or dreamcatcher level fandom

    ➶➶➶➶➶ YIREN ➷➷➷➷➷

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    The kpop industry is ridiculously over saturated, it's practically impossible for a huge majority of groups to be satisfactorily successful. At the same time, the kpop community, especially internationally, is infested with success stans. They latch on rookie groups from big to mid companies or ones with previously popular members with the hope they'll hit big upon debut, or at most during the first year. If they don't, they'll move on to the next promising rookie.

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    Edited once, last by chounim ().

  • AllKill VIP
    Quote from Hopkinz

    This trend started noticeably in the 3rd gen, but it was even happening in the 2nd gen.

    Like Sistar which was from Starship who is a nugu group debut in 2010, but had a breakout hit with So Cool (first win with How Dare You)


    Or AOA which is FNC's first GG debut in 2012, and breakout 1 year + later with Miniskirt


    Or even Apink I don't even know what company they are from, who debut in the first half of 2011 and got their hit "My My" at year end


    In fact those groups I mentioned were not even mid tier after their first real hit they became top tier (Sistar) or upper mid (AOA/Apink)


    This is excluding viral moments like EXID/Momoland/Brave Girls which is a 1/100 chance of happening.

    Teens and young adults aren't PRIMARILY interested in vocals, dancing abilities or talent for that matter. VISUALS is the #1 criteria for most (i did say for most). They want to be associated with acts that look good on a badge or a billboard. As long as it goes boom boom boom (no pun intended), its all that matters, really. If that group happens to have a decent hit along the way, they explode in popularity based on the aforementioned base requirement. Does anyone here honestly think that Big Agencies are looking for VOCALS? Nahhh, they're looking for models that can be properly auto-tuned and "visually enhanced" (you know what i mean), to a certain degree.


    I'm not speaking out of frustration, i'm merely exposing a Fact that one realizes when they reach their mid-twenties. I Love Kpop! But I'm not blind either!

    And like Dal*Shabet is an example of a group who had a strong start, but they just barely missed, there was some controversy, then when that settled down and their music quality improved, it was too late.

    Those groups need a lot of luck and timming too, like big companies groups can lack that bc they have infinite resources but smaller ones dont have that advangte


    Its a once in a lifetime chance that may never cmb

  • AllKill VIP
    Quote from Hopkinz

    And like Dal*Shabet is an example of a group who had a strong start, but they just barely missed, there was some controversy, then when that settled down and their music quality improved, it was too late.

    Also, T-ara


    I think "Lies" wasn't huge and MBK was ..... MBK


    And then "Bo Beep" happened, everything changed from then and they took advantage of the momentum and had comebacks after comebacks.


    T-ara's trajectory was halted due to that bitch Hwayoung but even that, they are overall a top tier group if we take into account all their success in the early days like THOSE YEARS WERE GODLY

    I agree that yes - if you don't hit big within 2 years of debut - its likely never going to happen. The best the group can hope for is solid mid tier.

    But I also think what the groups OP mentioned all have in common is - They are not big 3 company groups

    these mid tier companies - don't stay the course on their investment and hold steady which contributes to the failure of these groups to secure a decent fanbase. They throw in the towel early and stop giving consistent comebacks or panic and have major concept changes that alienate fans - Weekly and CLC are 2 good examples of this.


    Whereas a company like SM has the resources to see their vision through and continue to spend money till it works.

    Hmmm, I feel like it's 50-50. I also have to say that while K-Pop is oversaturated, it has grown a lot and you don't need to be top tier or even mid tier to survive. If you have a big enough fandom, you can do well. I'd say mid-tier and low-tier nowadays are in a much better position than 5/10 years ago because of the rise of album sales and overall K-Pop fandom and possibility to tour on more countries... A lot of big names from 2nd or even 3rd gen ended up getting disbanded by their companies early because they weren't making the money many people thought they were.

    Nowadays, groups like Purple Kiss or Lightsum which you mentioned sell more than what CLC ever did even though they seem to be on a lower tier when it comes to popularity...

    What's true is that the gap between the big and mid-tier companies seem to be bigger, and becoming a top group from a nugu or even mid-tier company is almost unthinkable, but that's because the industry is also more established.

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