Theory: Mid tier groups only have 1 year to make it or else they're destined to flop

you make a good point OP but the question is how to get out of that situation right?

every time a group debuts obviously they want to hit it big and succeed but as we all know sometimes it's just not possible not matter the song or the amount of money thrown at them...

I mean for the big 3/4 they can debut with a "less than ideal song" (aka o.o) and still sell hotcakes whereas for a mid-tier or (even worse) nugu group - unless your song or a member goes viral or something there's almost no chance of making it big

I generally agree. Midtier GGs need a lot of luck with the right timing and right song to pull off a OMG or Brave Girls.

I would leave Stayc and Ive out of the discussion though. First of all, both are Kakao groups, they aint mid tier at all lol. Kakao is bigger than all Big 4 companies combined. It's not a coincidence that all the acts under them have gotten every favorable advantage not available to other true midtier and nugu labels, except for the branding and company stans that the Big 4 labels have. The Boyz, Weeekly, Apink, Monsta X, StayC, Ive, none of these groups have lacked when it comes to getting resources and exposure through various Korean outlets.

Secondly, for Ive specifically, they were built on the backs of Wonyoung and Yujin. Aint no way the other four girls are gonna be selling a tenth of what Ive is selling or reaching anywhere near the top 5 of Melon without the Izone powerhouses.

Agreed

Quote from BlackpinkHouse

I generally agree. Midtier GGs need a lot of luck with the right timing and right song to pull off a OMG or Brave Girls.

I would leave Stayc and Ive out of the discussion though. First of all, both are Kakao groups, they aint mid tier at all lol. Kakao is bigger than all Big 4 companies combined. It's not a coincidence that all the acts under them have gotten every favorable advantage not available to other true midtier and nugu labels, except for the branding and company stans that the Big 4 labels have. The Boyz, Weeekly, Apink, Monsta X, StayC, Ive, none of these groups have lacked when it comes to getting resources and exposure through various Korean outlets.

Secondly, for Ive specifically, they were built on the backs of Wonyoung and Yujin. Aint no way the other four girls are gonna be selling a tenth of what Ive is selling or reaching anywhere near the top 5 of Melon without the Izone powerhouses.

That’s not true. Stayc were selling 10k at first they went big once ASAP become a hit.

Apink are the reasons why IST has enough money to debut groups. You can’t be that dense.

Your theory was right with this group

Somewhat true. It is also on the company. Many companies are too small and don't have enough funds to keep making comebacks. Neither they have connections or power to send their idols into variety shows, acting gigs. They don't even bother with consistent vlives or vlogs at least to engage fans.

Blackswan is the only unsuccessful group I know that is still trying with so many member changes. With CLC, Cube gave them many solo activities in different variety shows for Yeeun, Seunghee. But it didn't make much difference. For Clc, Cube was at fault changing their concept everytime.

It is better for idols to break up the group in 1-2 years if they are not achieving bigger sales or rrcognition. Atleast they will be young enough to start a new career. Like i don't know what woolim is doing with rocket punch. Afaik they don't have any individual gigs. And that is a mid tier company.

I think it's about true. Of course anything is possible and in rare cases a group can have a breakout hit years into their careers (i.e. pull a Brave Girls), but generally speaking people will excuse a rookie group flopping because "they're rookies, give them time to establish themselves", but after a group is no longer rookies, if they haven't found success, people put them into that "flop" category and don't give them a chance

I'm surprised Wooah! have fallen off so fast. They're the only super cute group these days, but when they debuted as rookies in 2020 at least they were mentioned amongst the other rookies of the time.

Some smaller groups can afford to stay afloat for longer because of a rich member funding it, or a richer company backing, for example I doubt H1key will disband anytime despite being nugu, or Loona who can at least get opportunities in places.

I think Loona can do well in Korea however popularity will be quite skewed (besides Chuu)....Heejin, Jinsoul and Yves keep getting opportunities, Kim Lip internationally, Heejin solo stans are a big problem in Korea. Similar to Vivi internationally, Yeojin has vocal Korean stans..etc. Ironically Loona is a group where their western fandom is very strong (no ot11..etc) but their other fandoms are full of solos.

Hopkinz Everglow would fit here too. They're very GP oriented but internationally GP oriented where Dun Dun and Ladida had good responses compared to Pirate.

Management is a big problem too.Like Classy are getting budget and some audience however they're being led by an ex-GG member who is not good at managing...at all. Basically some rich person's pet project.

Ariaz (disbanded), BVNDIT (wtf MNH), Cignature, Fanatics (probably disbanded except Rayeon and Doah solo), GWSN, Lightsum, Purple Kiss, Rocket Punch, Saturday (agency trouble), Secret Number, and Weeekly are all on upper/lower sides of that spectrum. Bugaboo had some hype when they came out.

RN I'm worried about the bolded groups. Cherry Bullet had some growth but not enough. Rocket Punch is next on my list of "worried..." groups. Elris had some hype, especially w Bella but they've redebuted as ALICE + everyone has new stage names now? so we'll see how that goes.

Busters had both their popular members leave so idk how they're still surviving. Pixy, ironically Nature, are at least stable for now, but they're more nugu side.

I think Billie can do better w the right momentum. Right now ILY: or that GP999 group is the new lower midtier group, and I hope they'll be able to survive the floundering. They debuted w a Gfriend esque concept too! Momoland's new sister group may come here as well.

Quote from killthisfenty

That’s not true. Stayc were selling 10k at first they went big once ASAP become a hit.

Apink are the reasons why IST has enough money to debut groups. You can’t be that dense.

Stayc actually sold over 30k in 2020 which was the highest selling gg album debuted in 2020

Quote from SendFoodPics

I'm surprised Wooah! have fallen off so fast. They're the only super cute group these days, but when they debuted as rookies in 2020 at least they were mentioned amongst the other rookies of the time.

Shit songs after "Bad Girl". Now the company is just pushing Nana hoping she can bring in enough money on her own.

Quote from rubyjanes

I think it's about true. Of course anything is possible and in rare cases a group can have a breakout hit years into their careers (i.e. pull a Brave Girls), but generally speaking people will excuse a rookie group flopping because "they're rookies, give them time to establish themselves", but after a group is no longer rookies, if they haven't found success, people put them into that "flop" category and don't give them a chance

I think you are right about this when it comes to actual stanning.

When it comes to casual interest, I think more people still give chances to nugu/mid tier groups, which is kind of their last resort to getting a big hit, when casual fans love and support a special song.

Let's check out more comebacks from lower mid tier and nugu GGs, even if they've been around a while :)

Quote from SendFoodPics

I'm surprised Wooah! have fallen off so fast. They're the only super cute group these days, but when they debuted as rookies in 2020 at least they were mentioned amongst the other rookies of the time.

Some smaller groups can afford to stay afloat for longer because of a rich member funding it, or a richer company backing, for example I doubt H1key will disband anytime despite being nugu, or Loona who can at least get opportunities in places.

I think Loona can do well in Korea however popularity will be quite skewed (besides Chuu)....Heejin, Jinsoul and Yves keep getting opportunities, Kim Lip internationally, Heejin solo stans are a big problem in Korea. Similar to Vivi internationally, Yeojin has vocal Korean stans..etc. Ironically Loona is a group where their western fandom is very strong (no ot11..etc) but their other fandoms are full of solos.

Hopkinz Everglow would fit here too. They're very GP oriented but internationally GP oriented where Dun Dun and Ladida had good responses compared to Pirate.

Management is a big problem too.Like Classy are getting budget and some audience however they're being led by an ex-GG member who is not good at managing...at all. Basically some rich person's pet project.

Ariaz (disbanded), BVNDIT (wtf MNH), Cignature, Fanatics (probably disbanded except Rayeon and Doah solo), GWSN, Lightsum, Purple Kiss, Rocket Punch, Saturday (agency trouble), Secret Number, and Weeekly are all on upper/lower sides of that spectrum. Bugaboo had some hype when they came out.

RN I'm worried about the bolded groups. Cherry Bullet had some growth but not enough. Rocket Punch is next on my list of "worried..." groups. Elris had some hype, especially w Bella but they've redebuted as ALICE + everyone has new stage names now? so we'll see how that goes.

Busters had both their popular members leave so idk how they're still surviving. Pixy, ironically Nature, are at least stable for now, but they're more nugu side.

I think Billie can do better w the right momentum. Right now ILY: or that GP999 group is the new lower midtier group, and I hope they'll be able to survive the floundering. They debuted w a Gfriend esque concept too! Momoland's new sister group may come here as well.

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Most worried about Saturday.

I think their agency doesn't have much money anymore, but were still trying.

Saw a song a while back, but they didn't seem to have money for a proper MV

Nature is probably done.

their last comeback was a very cheap video.

Quote from Whygeee

Shit songs after "Bad Girl". Now the company is just pushing Nana hoping she can bring in enough money on her own.

Catch the Stars was popular. Also, the company has been equally promoting all the members in fesitvals, and 3 of the girls (the visuals) are on acting shows, including Nana . The popularity disparity isn't that huge.

Quote from BEG4DAWIN

Nature is probably done.

their last comeback was a very cheap video.

They actually grew a lot despite the backlash overseas.

Dreamcatcher, Gidle and Mamamoo are all groups with their own respective quirks which allow them to stand out among mid tier groups and hence their longetivity either through that one mega talented female rapper self-producing for the group like Soyeon, 4 vocal based main vocalists obviously singing more mature songs than 99% of idol group songs or idol groups that essentially making anime-esque rock-insipired songs.

Obviously you could have groups following obvious path to success no matter which companies they come from a.k.a "Constantly releasing 20 BOPs every year until they disband" and become mega successful, but people are either hard to please all the time or just naturally get bored of things pretty quickly.