Rookie groups are struggling, generational shift isn't happening anymore

    I feel like one of the reason why Nmixx, Baemon and SM's ngg ain't making any waves is because that shift if not totally stopped, at least slowed down by a lot.


    People aren't moving on from Twice, Blackpink and relatively younger Aespa the way people moved on from SNSD and 2ne1.


    And it's not even the direct successors that are being hurt, I'd say even Teddy group(s) haven't made a big splash yet due to BP remaining active. The massive influx of new fans with the rise of BTS and 3rd gen as a whole isn't the type to move on to younger groups like it used to happen and industry is facing a dilemma whether to adapt or not.


    So far it seems like agencies aren't reacting as they should snd continuing to debut new groups at similar rate and losing money.

    those groups you mentioned aren't "struggling"


    nugu groups struggle those groups are quite successful in their own right but they certainly ren't struggling...


    it might be fair to say they aren't making waves but then again the question is what is "waves"?


    also those top 5th generation groups certainly aren't losing money

    Nmixx is third gen and they debuted before NewJeans. They created polarizing songs early in their career and that stunted their growth.


    I think the industry was too soon to declare 5th gen has started. I think it's archaic to use contracts end time for when a new gen started. I am not too familiar with boy groups but with girl groups we can't say 5th gen started when there are like 3 groups that are still at their peaks and might even reach a new peak. It would have made sense for 5th gen to start when IVE, Aespa, NewJeans, and even LSF declined, but those groups didn't decline.


    4th gen groups still dominating is why 5th gen isn't have the same impact as 4th gen. 5th gen to me still feels like 4.5 gen which is why the shift hasn't happened. If you look at charts and sales no 5th gen group are touching 4th gen groups.

    H2H are doing more than fine :borahae:

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    Quote from StanGIDLE

    Nmixx is third gen and they debuted before NewJeans. They created polarizing songs early in their career and that stunted their growth.


    I think the industry was too soon to declare 5th gen has started. I think it's archaic to use contracts end time for when a new gen started. I am not too familiar with boy groups but with girl groups we can't say 5th gen started when there are like 3 groups that are still at their peaks and might even reach a new peak. It would have made sense for 5th gen to start when IVE, Aespa, NewJeans, and even LSF declined, but those groups didn't decline.


    4th gen groups still dominating is why 5th gen isn't have the same impact as 4th gen. 5th gen to me still feels like 4.5 gen which is why the shift hasn't happened. If you look at charts and sales no 5th gen group are touching 4th gen groups.

    Nmixx is newer then aespa and IVE. They are a 2022 debut. Definitely 4th gen.

    I think the issue is we were spoiled with other groups having stronger starts with previous gens declining. I think 5th gen groups are off to a fine start but the issue is 4th gen groups aren't going to decline anytime soon.


    Correct me if I'm wrong but 5th gen started in 2023, right? If so it wasn't expected to have 5 groups dominating in charts and sales for 2+ years. Usually when a new gen starts it takes by year 2 or 3 for the new gen to fully takeover as leaders. However, that didn't happen because some of the top 4th gen groups haven't hit their ceiling yet imo. I think the only top 4th gen groups that hit their ceilings are Idle and Itzy. Other than that I'm unsure if they hit their ceilings because even groups like Nmixx and LSF possibly didn't hit their ceiling or still have a lot of interest.


    I think the above is why people are downplaying the success of groups like H2H, Meovv, Illit, BaeMon, tripleS, etc. I feel they're all doing fine but 4th gen is still dominating the charts and sales.

    Quote from StanGIDLE

    I think the issue is we were spoiled with other groups having stronger starts with previous gens declining. I think 5th gen groups are off to a fine start but the issue is 4th gen groups aren't going to decline anytime soon.


    Correct me if I'm wrong but 5th gen started in 2023, right? If so it wasn't expected to have 5 groups dominating in charts and sales for 2+ years. Usually when a new gen starts it takes by year 2 or 3 for the new gen to fully takeover as leaders. However, that didn't happen because some of the top 4th gen groups haven't hit their ceiling yet imo. I think the only top 4th gen groups that hit their ceilings are Idle and Itzy. Other than that I'm unsure if they hit their ceilings because even groups like Nmixx and LSF possibly didn't hit their ceiling or still have a lot of interest.


    I think the above is why people are downplaying the success of groups like H2H, Meovv, Illit, BaeMon, tripleS, etc. I feel they're all doing fine but 4th gen is still dominating the charts and sales.

    Doesn’t this always happen? 4th gen started 2018 with Idle and Stray kids but didn’t start competing with 3rd gen until 2021 :?:


    Isn't it always the same cycle over and over again :oops:

    Quote from foreveraespaaa

    Doesn’t this always happen? 4th gen started 2018 with Idle and Stray kids but didn’t start competing with 3rd gen until 2021 :?:


    Isn't it always the same cycle over and over again :oops:

    Didn't Itzy have a very strong start?


    Not to discredit Itzy but it was easier for them to standout early because less competition. Twice and RV were heading into a decline in Korea and Blackpink release schedule doesn't block others. 5th gen didn't really have a chance to get breathing room because IVE, Aespa, NewJeans, Idle, and LSF released music frequently. It's why it will take longer to have a group standout early.


    I think a thing many forget to mention with kpop going global, it allows groups to have a longer shelf life.For example, a group like Dreamcatcher wouldn't have lasted as long if they didn't have an international fanbase to rely on. On boy group side, the same can be said for Ateez who are now hitting new milestones on intl charts. The globalization of kpop makes generation a bit trickier to predict because companies can fall back to international markets.


    In regards to 5th gen, I think things will pick up for them. It's just that it will take longer than usual because I'm unsure when IVE, Aespa and a few other groups will start their decline.

    Quote from echo-sage

    Agreed. 3rd Gen is still so strong, and 4th Gen is still dominating. It’s really interesting how 2nd Gen was so easily phased out though.

    2nd gen groups arguably phased themselves out. Even the big ones knew they had an expected expiration date and largely just accepted their fate as industry standard, which is why it's been interesting to see so many of them resurrect unexpectedly in recent years, but they'll still never be as active as they once were.

    People had moved on to NewJeans.


    But shit happened.

    Quote from foreveraespaaa

    Doesn’t this always happen? 4th gen started 2018 with Idle and Stray kids but didn’t start competing with 3rd gen until 2021 :?:


    Isn't it always the same cycle over and over again :oops:

    Well I don’t think these groups were considered 4th gen until companies knew they couldn’t compete with BTS/BP and Twice.

    Quote from number-one

    Ironically Katseye is doing better than most kpop groups this year. They currently have 25,5M monthly listeners in Spotify and 164M monthly audience in YT

    Well Katseye isn’t kpop

    Quote from StanGIDLE

    In regards to 5th gen, I think things will pick up for them. It's just that it will take longer than usual because I'm unsure when IVE, Aespa and a few other groups will start their decline.

    4th gen gg benefited from globalization thanks to 3rd gen groups and the biggest ones were basically seniors and it was expected to declined in your 4-5 years. Now IVE, aespa etc are « seniors » but for some reasons are still young so this is why kpop is oversaturated right now when 5th gen coud have waited at least next year to debut them.

    Quote from thebadguy48

    The downfall of the K-pop industry happened due to NewJeans' hiatus.

    Feels like it. If they were to miraculously return between October and the end of the year, they may save the year.


    Without them, it proves that their size on the scene is hard to not only replicate, but to fill.

    Quote from killthisfenty

    4th gen gg benefited from globalisation thanks to 3rd gen groups and the biggest ones were seniors and it was expected to decline in your 4-5 years. Now IVE, aespa etc are « seniors » but for some reason are still young so this is why kpop is oversaturated right now when 5th gen could have waited at least next year to debut them.

    Unfortunately, labels have started to gain the mindset of Apple. Churn out as many groups as possible to generate revenue. However, in doing so, you oversaturate the market and set in fatigue, with future consumers turning away.


    Previously, companies used to have two or three groups in generations. Now, with the likes of Hybe, you've got them churning out groups left, right, and centre, perpetuating the stereotype that idols are just manufactured. A stereotype that started to disappear several years ago.

    The problem is not fans but general public appeal, the fans come later.


    Fandoms like onces, blinks or armys are still massive because like you said so many people joined during the 3rd gen, and they're going to continue supporting them, but the "replacements" appeared. Groups like Stray Kids, Aespa, Ive and specially NewJeans have done amazing these last years and they have dominated the Kpop scene during the hiatus of BP and BTS, with Twice being clearly less relevant than them in every aspect apart from touring (would be surprising if rookies could tour better than a group like Twice).


    Hybe messing up with NJ which was the leader of the generation of course doesn't help and left the 4th gen in a bit weird position, and then the 5th gen came and... They're just flopping. It's not a matter of fans moving, they don't release music people are interested in. Fans don't suddenly appear, they've to find and become interested in the groups someway, but companies are failing to make these groups appeal to anyone. The weird attempt of many of them to try to copy NJ's concept without even understanding NJ's concept, the focus on fans before the public and the rush to change the generation, the try to promote new groups as the new 5th gen when the 4th gen shouldn't have ended, and... weak music are probably the reason behind all this.

    Quote from uwuwu-98

    The problem is not fans but general public appeal, the fans come later.


    Fandoms like onces, blinks or armys are still massive because like you said so many people joined during the 3rd gen, and they're going to continue supporting them, but the "replacements" appeared. Groups like Stray Kids, Aespa, Ive and specially NewJeans have done amazing these last years and they have dominated the Kpop scene during the hiatus of BP and BTS, with Twice being clearly less relevant than them in every aspect apart from touring (would be surprising if rookies could tour better than a group like Twice).


    Hybe messing up with NJ which was the leader of the generation of course doesn't help and left the 4th gen in a bit weird position, and then the 5th gen came and... They're just flopping. It's not a matter of fans moving, they don't release music people are interested in. Fans don't suddenly appear, they've to find and become interested in the groups someway, but companies are failing to make these groups appeal to anyone. The weird attempt of many of them to try to copy NJ's concept without even understanding NJ's concept, the focus on fans before the public and the rush to change the generation, the try to promote new groups as the new 5th gen when the 4th gen shouldn't have ended, and... weak music are probably the reason behind all this.

    Imagine thinking these 4th gen groups are actually more relevant than Twice. Couldn't be me.

    Quote from Popper-of-Ks

    Imagine thinking these 4th gen groups are actually more relevant than Twice. Couldn't be me.

    In terms of legacy of course Twice is still above them but to act like if they've not been more relevant than Twice these last years is quite ridiculous.


    You're free to have your opinion though.

    Quote from echo-sage

    Agreed. 3rd Gen is still so strong, and 4th Gen is still dominating. It’s really interesting how 2nd Gen was so easily phased out though.

    In general I think the debut age was higher for the 2nd generation group than the later groups, maybe not try for Girls' Generation but that also the group that hold out the longest. But both 2NE1 and T-ara had some members that was well above 20 at the debut of the groups, even if both also had one young member each at age 15-16. New groups with a lower average age at debut will also have a higher chance to be active longer. Youth matters in this case.


    And also, I think social media and streaming contributes to it. When 3rd generation groups debuted social media and streaming was much more developed compared to when the 2nd genaration groups debuted so it was a bit easier for them to use the digital format as a tool from the start.

    Quote from uwuwu-98

    In terms of legacy of course Twice is still above them but to act like if they've not been more relevant than Twice these last years is quite ridiculous.


    You're free to have your opinion though.

    How many international chart entries do Aespa or Ive have? How many stadium world tours have they done? Aespa can play at the Tokyo Dome? Neat. Twice did that... with a sub-unit. The full group requires larger venues. Ive can play at foreign spin-offs of Lollapalooza? Cool. Twice can headline the real thing.


    If anything is ridiculous, it's this continuous need for you all to downplay Twice's current success and pretend they're nothing but a legacy act, which is demonstrably not the case. Instead they continue to set bars their juniors can only dream to match in the future.

    I think everyone has pretty much summed it up:


    1. 3rd Gen Groups with Ongoing Relevance

    2. Companies releasing too many groups per Gen and oversaturating the market.

    3. New Gen groups debuting before the decline of older Gen groups.

    4. Oversaturation leads to lack of originality in concepts. Which would also help explain why people latched on to ADP so fast.


    New Jeans, IVE, AESPA, and BlackPink are/were still at (or close to) their peak when ILLIT, KiiKii, H2H, Baemon, MEOVV, and IZNA debuted. ILLIT got off to a good start, but they got tangled up with the New Jeans drama. The other groups were basically supposed to be the replacements. Which makes sense if you think about it.


    Most groups run on a 7 year contract. IVE and AESPA will be up for contract renewal soon. Debuting a new group a couple of years beforehand serves as a good cushion should not everyone renew (though we all know the rumor of SM making groups sign the 7 year contract and 3 year extension at the same time to ensure their groups actually do 10 year contracts). But, the fact that IVE and AESPA are repeaking and not seeing huge declines means there isn't much space for KiiKii and H2H to really stand out.


    Another reason why ADP probably was at an advantage. They have no direct competition for general public interest.


    On the topic of BGs, they have struggled to really standout period since the huge 3rd gen wave. They definitely sell well, but they don't seem as iconic as EXO, BTS, Wanna One, and Seventeen.

    Quote from Popper-of-Ks

    How many international chart entries do Aespa or Ive have? How many stadium world tours have they done? Aespa can play at the Tokyo Dome? Neat. Twice did that... with a sub-unit. The full group requires larger venues. Ive can play at foreign spin-offs of Lollapalooza? Cool. Twice can headline the real thing.


    If anything is ridiculous, it's this continuous need for you all to downplay Twice's current success and pretend they're nothing but a legacy act, which is demonstrably not the case. Instead they continue to set bars their juniors can only dream to match in the future.

    I literally said "apart from touring" in my first post, it's impossible rookies match seniors in that.


    In international charts Twice have also peaked better because of the fandom and these last months thanks to Kpop Demon Hunters, the overall performance of the songs is worse, just check the Spotify numbers of the songs released these last years. They also have worse physical sales, and let's not even talk about Korea where Twice is doing worse than these 5th gen groups we're talking about in the thread...


    Don't get me wrong, I think Twice is still one of the most relevant girl groups, and this year thanks to Kpop Demon Hunters they're repeaking, but are you seriously telling me during 2022-2024 Twice was doing better than Ive or Aespa? Since I assume you at least agree with NJ.


    Anyway, if you think so, let's just agree to disagree, it's not the point of the thread, don't derail it more.

    Quote from patrik-k

    In general I think the debut age was higher for the 2nd generation group than the later groups, maybe not try for Girls' Generation but that also the group that hold out the longest. But both 2NE1 and T-ara had some members that was well above 20 at the debut of the groups, even if both also had one young member each at age 15-16. New groups with a lower average age at debut will also have a higher chance to be active longer. Youth matters in this case.


    And also, I think social media and streaming contributes to it. When 3rd generation groups debuted social media and streaming was much more developed compared to when the 2nd genaration groups debuted so it was a bit easier for them to use the digital format as a tool from the start.

    Youth used to matter. We're seeing more and more idols continue to stay active into their 30s. Some semi-active 2nd gen acts are in their 40s. The key difference is that the 2nd gen groups disbanded before this trend could take shape, although many of them are now attempting to take advantage of it on their second wind. The real question is whether or not this trend will continue or if it'll go back to the way things used to be before the 4th gen groups are old enough to benefit.



    Quote from uwuwu-98

    I literally said "apart from touring" in my first post, it's impossible rookies match seniors in that.


    In international charts Twice have also peaked better because of the fandom and these last months thanks to Kpop Demon Hunters, the overall performance of the songs is worse, just check the Spotify numbers of the songs released these last years. They also have worse physical sales, and let's not even talk about Korea where Twice is doing worse than these 5th gen groups we're talking about in the thread...


    Don't get me wrong, I think Twice is still one of the most relevant girl groups, and this year thanks to Kpop Demon Hunters they're repeaking, but are you seriously telling me during 2022-2024 Twice was doing better than Ive or Aespa?

    The proof is in the pudding, and like it or not, touring is a big part of a group's relevance. You can't arbitrarily single that metric out as something that doesn't count.


    Twice were also charting better in the relevant markets long before anyone had ever heard of KDH, so you can't simply credit that for their success compared to 4th gen.

    Quote from Popper-of-Ks

    Youth used to matter. We're seeing more and more idols continue to stay active into their 30s. Some semi-active 2nd gen acts are in their 40s. The key difference is that the 2nd gen groups disbanded before this trend could take shape, although many of them are now attempting to take advantage of it on their second wind. The real question is whether or not this trend will continue or if it'll go back to the way things used to be before the 4th gen groups are old enough to benefit.


    Just because some few groups/artist can go on past 30 don't mean anyting acctually have changed. Kpop will always be focused the younger audience and that also means the artists/idols will be relative young. The arists also don't want to be a member of a kpop group for such a long period, when you are getting closer to 30 you probaly want to have a life, start a family maybe, and you really can't do that and be a member in an active kpop group. It maybe works if you move on to be a solo artist or an actor.

    Quote from patrik-k

    Just because some few groups/artist can go on past 30 don't mean anyting acctually have changed. Kpop will always be focused the younger audience and that also means the artists/idols will be relative young. The arists also don't want to be a member of a kpop group for such a long period, when you are getting closer to 30 you probaly want to have a life, start a family maybe, and you really can't do that and be a member in an active kpop group. It maybe works if you move on to be a solo artist or an actor.

    I mean... this wasn't happening before, so it literally has changed. Maybe it's a temporary trend, maybe it's permanent. We don't know. We can't predict the future, but we can observe how things have changed over time.


    It's easy to say Kpop idols don't "have a life," but if you're in your 30s and still a Kpop idol, it's because you're successful, which means you are making some nice money for all that hard work. That's not something you easily part with voluntarily. Doing it to start a family? I guess you haven't seen Korea's birth rates...

    Groups are definitely sticking around for longer now, but also fans and the industry have been way too eager to declare new generations and it has caused the idea to collapse.


    4th gen was declared too early. It is said to have begun in 2018 - 2 years into Blackpink’s career and the year Blackpink released DDDD. As a result, you had all these “4th gen” groups who had their peak years entirely enclosed within the umbrella of Blackpink’s career; Loona, Itzy, Idle.


    It would have been the equivalent of declaring 3rd gen in 2009, when Gee and Genie were still playing over the airwaves.


    And this issue was compounded upon by declaring 5th gen in 2023. Just 5 years after 4th gen. Which was a marketing ploy for Zerobaseone, but everyone has just rolled with it.


    This arbitrary line in the sand means NewJeans fall just 6 months before the new generation, despite entirely throwing the industry on its head, and you get all these weird side effects such as their being no SM 4th gen boy group, and no YG 4th gen girl group.


    On these trends, we can expect 6th gen to be declared in 2027, 4 years after 5th gen, and at this point the word will have truly lost all meaning in kpop discourse.

    Quote from BIGnorBANG

    Now, with the likes of Hybe, you've got them churning out groups left, right, and centre, perpetuating the stereotype that idols are just manufactured.

    Why are we blaming HYBE like the other big companies don't have more groups? They have 9 groups (if we're counting NJs and discountin the virtual group) and even if they debuted two more which im pretty sure is the plan, it still wouldn't surpass JYP who has like 12, and SM with 16. Mind you, SM is about to hit 17 when their new bg debuts.


    Is this recency bias?

    Edited 3 times, last by CaraFIMIE ().

    I agree that 5th gen was mainly used as a marketing term, so newer groups can avoid competition with 4th gen groups. 5th gen starting in 2023 doesn't make any sense because the top 4th gen groups didn't reach their peaks before 2023.


    5th gen starting in 2025 or 2026 would make much more sense than 2023 because it's been nearly 3 years and I don't think the shift has happened. The same groups that were considered the top 5 groups in 2023 are still the top groups in 2025. Even with NewJeans hiatus, and LSF and Idle on somewhat of a decline, they're still ahead of 5th gen groups.


    I am still unsure if any of the 5th gen girl groups will solidify their place in the top 5. I thought Illit had a chance, but they didn't select the right songs after magnetic. I like their discography but following up magnetic with Cherish was a mistake. Babymonster still needs a hit but there's potential there. I still think the "5th gen groups" feel more like 4.5 rather than it's own gen. I guess this is the mess we get when companies decide rather than the public.

    Quote from StanGIDLE

    The same groups that were considered the top 5 groups in 2023 are still the top groups in 2025. Even with NewJeans hiatus, and LSF and Idle on somewhat of a decline, they're still ahead of 5th gen groups.

    Yeah, I think that’s a really apt point.


    To add, I think the next generational shift will occur eventually. 3rd gen did eventually pass the baton to the next wave of groups (I would say in 2021, when Aespa rose to the top with Next Level).


    The 4th gen groups will eventually have to pass on the baton too. Even if they don’t disband, they’ll start to take on the feel of a legacy group at some point. But I think we’re so out of sync with the idea of “generations” and when these shifts actually occur it might be called 6th gen when it does finally happen.

    Quote from echo-sage

    Agreed. 3rd Gen is still so strong, and 4th Gen is still dominating. It’s really interesting how 2nd Gen was so easily phased out though.

    It's called recency bias + survivorship bias.

    9 years ago (I use 9 because 2nd gen started at 2003 - 9 years before 3rd gen), there were more active 2nd gen ggs than 3rd gen ggs currently.

    Quote from Bottles

    Groups are definitely sticking around for longer now, but also fans and the industry have been way too eager to declare new generations and it has caused the idea to collapse.

    It's not true, groups aren't sticking around for longer now:


    List of 2nd ggs surivived at least 8 years (20 total): Girls' Generation, Apink, Wonder Girls, Kara, T-ara, Davichi, Brown Eyed Girls, Girl's Day, BB GIRLS, Secret, After School, 9Muses, Sunny Hill, RaNia, Gavy NJ, 2NB, Story Seller, Sweet Revenge, Trampauline, OKDAL

    List of 3rd gen ggs surivived at least 8 years (13 total): Twice, Red Velvet, Blackpink, Mamamoo, EXID, Oh My Girl, Laboum, Sweden Laundry, Laysha, HeyGirls, Sixbomb, Bubble-X, fishingirls


    List of 2nd gen ggs passed 11 years (11 total): Apink, Kara, Davichi, Brown Eyed Girls, BB GIRLS, Sunny Hill, Gavy NJ, 2NB, Story Seller, Trampauline, OKDAL

    List of 3rd gen ggs passed 11 years (3 total): Sweden Laundry, HeyGirls, fishingirls


    I cut at 8/11 years because there are marks of 7/10 years (first and second contracts end). Groups could reach 8/11 years proved sign of longevity.

    Hmm, I’m certainly not going to die on this hill as it’s not really related to the point I was making, but I will say:

    - Lots of those groups aren’t idols and are arguably not even Kpop (eg Sweden Laundry are an indie group).

    - There’s 3rd gen groups that haven’t had the chance to make 11 years yet, so it feels a bit unfair.


    When I was agreeing with “groups are sticking around for longer”, it is more due to the top groups staying at the top for longer.

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