Lesserafim, Itzy, Gidle, Ive and Aespa are doing Gfriend, Mamamoo and Dreamcatcher numbers, do we have to worry?

  • Outside gidle and itzy that will celebrate their 6th and 5th anniversary next year the top girl groups of 4th gen are below 3 years old so at least for me is a little concerning watching all those girl groups already having very bad numbers in their most recent releases. I made a table comparing their recent comebacks with mamamoo numbers after their career ended in 2020, the usual numbers a gfriend comeback was pulling before disbanding or dreamcatcher that is a fairly known group but not really successful, so you can see for yourself what I'm talking about.

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    Is shocking to be honest, most of these groups were pulling 100M to 300M of streams on both platforms and all of sudden most of them are having trouble cracking 50M.


    And there was a thread the other day talking about how we 3rd gen stans are coping and doing circles searching for touring numbers to justify our faves still being the top groups and to deal with the supposed 4th gen takeover, but is really like that? Outside some very good hits from the top girl groups of this generation I really don't see 4th dominance of kpop, none of the 4th gen girl group fandoms is even half as big as onces and blinks are today, even twice in their worst era with barely help from their company did x2 or x3 those numbers just with onces fandom power. Like I really wish to see the opinion of the "twice are flopping" "twice don't have hits after 2018" crowd about those numbers.


    So what do you think, are those recent comebacks a sign to worry for those 4th gen fandoms or this is just one little fail for those groups and they will be pulling huge numbers next year? Maybe just the ultimate proof the top girl groups from 3rd gen have no comparison because no way in hell blackpink or twice will fail like this 2 or 3 years into their career.

  • The premise of this thread sucks.


    Also Mamamoo's popularity has never been correlated to their YouTube views ever.


    Any of these groups should be happy to peak as high as Mamamoo did during their strongest years.

  • Streams are literally the last thing these groups have to care about

    Ask any of these groups if they rather have 300m streams on music platforms or sold out concerts and 1m copies sold, all of them will answer the latter in a heartbeat.

    I mean, Cupid was the most streamed kpop song of the year and look how it turned out...

    narcissistic, my god i love it

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  • Dude it’s really not the gotcha that you think it is like you just compared new releases to a 3 year old song and a one year old song

    Those are just for benchmark of what girl groups not doing big numbers looks like, you can add red velvet chill kill 15M on youtube and 12M on spotify if it makes you picture the point better.

    so you are saying that aespa, lsrf etc... are doing after 2-3 weeks the same numbers that dreamcatcher and mamamoo release can do after 1-2 years


    yeah i clearly don't see how it's supposed to prove that they are weak

    They for sure are because I took into account the current daily streams of those releases and the projection of streams on kworb for it, and only aespa and le sserafim youtube numbers will increase significantly. Anyway at least on mamamoo case those youtube numbers are very low for their own standardsso that's what I'm trying to show.

    Streams are literally the last thing these groups have to care about

    Ask any of these groups if they rather have 300m streams on music platforms or sold out concerts and 1m copies sold, all of them will answer the latter in a heartbeat.

    I mean, Cupid was the most streamed kpop song of the year and look how it turned out...

    Spot on but is actually very interesting analyze this, the numbers they are doing are more akin of semi retired groups in their 9th or 10th year, not so early in the career of some of them.

    The premise of this thread sucks.


    Also Mamamoo's popularity has never been correlated to their YouTube views ever.


    Any of these groups should be happy to peak as high as Mamamoo did during their strongest years.

    Well that's clearly not the point and mamamoo numbers are here just for benchmark.

  • Take Gidle out of that list. Their actual comeback this year, which was Queendom is sitting at above 200 million.


    Perfect Night was also not really a comeback.


    Aespa, like all SM groups, always had kinda weak Youtube views.


    Baddie is truly tragic tho.

  • None of the numbers are a cause for concern, in fact perfect night is quickly becoming lsrfm's best performing song on spotify. Idle's song shouldn't even be here, it's not comparable to promoted korean comebacks (see how well queencard performed). Frankly I'm just surprised cake is doing that well with how their comeback was received . Drama was literally released a month ago give it time to rack up streams

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  • Aespa, like all SM groups, always had kinda weak Youtube views.

    No, aespa has been one of the strongest sm acts on youtube reaching 200M easily at the beginning of their careers

    None of the numbers are a cause for concern, in fact perfect night is quickly becoming lsrfm's best performing song on spotify. Idle's song shouldn't even be here, it's not comparable to promoted korean comebacks (see how well queencard performed). Frankly I'm just surprised cake is doing that well with how their comeback was received . Drama was literally released a month ago give it time to rack up streams

    What's your opinion about ive 3 singles era performance?

  • YouTube is nonsense, as even a 6 year old can bot it.


    Spotify "ballpark" shows you their current global rankings, but for more accuracy divide by the number of weeks the song has been released.


    1. lsf

    2. aespa

    ...

    3. ive, gidle, itzy

  • They have underperformed internationally (I AM got 100 million streams in under 3 month and it's already been nearly 2 months for baddie), but they're as strong as ever in korea (#3, #14 and #33 on melon daily rn).


    I don't think it'll affect them in the long run (hopefully)

    Right they just need to return to the concept that suits them the most and made them popular.

  • Dude is trying to tell us that 4gen doesn’t have an impact because we told him in other thread that 5gen doesn’t have significant achievements to make them a different generation, all these numbers that you brought means that 4gen groups is successful, Le sserafim promo for perfect night wasn’t that long and it’s charting at number one on melon as full english song and it doesn’t happen often for K-pop groups to have a nun Korean song to take the number spot, all those comparisons that you brought are weak as hell ,what do you mean a group is relevant because they have 50 million streams on Spotify after 3 years, also all these 4th gen groups you mentioned have proven to not only be a huge album sellers but also they have the capacity to hold concerts at big venues with ease with all these metrics yes 4gen has popularity and you can cry about it.

  • Dude is trying to tell us that 4gen doesn’t have an impact because we told him in other thread that 5gen doesn’t have significant achievements to make them a different generation

    Are you confusing me with someone else? What tf are you talking about?? :skull:

  • I guess to Op it make sense to compare a song that was released last month to a song released three years ago to him both are on the same level of popularity

    You guys are trying so hard to not understand the thread, the gfriend, mamamoo and dreamcatcher numbers are just for a comparison, top girl groups doing 25M in anything or taking weeks to cross 50M of streams are very bad results.

  • Are you confusing me with someone else? What tf are you talking about?? :skull:

    On this thread in the 3rd page it’s you right

    Saying current ggs are pooling sad numbers

  • You guys are trying so hard to not understand the thread, the gfriend, mamamoo and dreamcatcher numbers are just for a comparison, top girl groups doing 25M in anything or taking weeks to cross 50M of streams are very bad results.

    Not really, for example 50 million streams in a month is an average of 1.6 million streams a day which is above average for most groups.

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  • Not really, for example 50 million streams in a month is an average of 1.6 million streams a day which is above average for most groups.

    Yeah in spotify those numbers are good, not so much on youtube, but the thing is outside the big youtube heavy hitters and outside big hits most videos do the majority of their streams in the first 100 days. Some of those songs already saw most of their streams and the numbers won't increase that much.

  • Not really, for example 50 million streams in a month is an average of 1.6 million streams a day which is above average for most groups.

    ^ for the higher ranked groups globally. Some there are currently lower, maybe sub 1 million/day. e.g. Baddie ~650,000/day.

  • Yeah in spotify those numbers are good, not so much on youtube, but the thing is outside the big youtube heavy hitters and outside big hits most videos do the majority of their streams in the first 100 days. Some of those songs already saw most of their streams and the numbers won't increase that much.

    What you said about youtube is true, a song that came to mind is Jin's the astronaut. Today it crossed milestones on both youtube and spotify: 300 million streams on spotify while only 100 million on youtube. Do people just not watch MVs anymore? Videos that used to average 400-500k daily streams last year now do 200-300k (This refers to certain MVs that I used to check periodically and that have been out for years and so have had time to stabilize). It seems youtube streaming is down across the board for all kpop MVs except Gangnam Style.

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  • What you said about youtube is true, a song that came to mind is Jin's the astronaut. Today it crossed milestones on both youtube and spotify: 300 million streams on spotify while only 100 million on youtube. Do people just not watch MVs anymore? Videos that used to average 400-500k daily streams last year now do 200-300k (This refers to certain MVs that I used to check periodically and that have been out for years and so have had time to stabilize). It seems youtube streaming is down across the board for all kpop MVs except Gangnam Style.

    I don’t know what happened with yt but nowadays streams are higher than views.

  • The OP numbers are confusing. What is being compared here, what the groups had in views and stream count after the first month of a song release, or the views and streams of songs that are years old vs a few weeks old?


    Because if it's that last one, then it makes no sense.

    Views and streams aren't like album sales: they'll keep increasing after the first month, because people will listen more than once to a song if they like it, and they'll do that after the first month.

    'No more shall man have wings to bear him to paradise. Henceforth, he shall walk.'


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  • as usual


    numbers don't lie but it's how one interprets those numbers that matter


    OP you keep saying it's for comparison purposes but you can't since those aren't comparable


    you know when people say things like apples to apples oranges to oranges? you're trying to compare apples to oranges...


    if you are able to find the numbers compare


    3year old songs to another 3 year old song

    or 1-2 month old songs to 1-2month old songs


    those are comparable

  • You guys are trying so hard to not understand the thread, the gfriend, mamamoo and dreamcatcher numbers are just for a comparison, top girl groups doing 25M in anything or taking weeks to cross 50M of streams are very bad results.

    Youtube views have been slow unless ads are used. IVE didnt use ads this round


    And to achieve 50m streams within a month, that is BTS or BP level which average 1.7mil per day (put you on global top 200 for straight 300 days). I dont think realistic to expect that

  • Yeah in spotify those numbers are good, not so much on youtube, but the thing is outside the big youtube heavy hitters and outside big hits most videos do the majority of their streams in the first 100 days. Some of those songs already saw most of their streams and the numbers won't increase that much.

    I wonder do you even understand what you just said.


    Songs like perfect night, drama, baddie are just out less than 2 months. They will continue to rack up views since they are still within 100 days like you have assumed to have "majority of streams".


    Hence,this would put them at even better position to outdo those 3-year MVs you have used for comparison. So what's your point?

  • I know but let's also include them because a top girl group like them shouldn't been doing this badly at their peak


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    I'm an avid fan and even I couldn't stand that album. I'm going to be honest, it was not good. I couldn't even loop the song sound on or I might go crazy. Gidle's main selling point is their music, not visuals etc. It's hard to hold your place with a bad song. Hopefully the next album we see more of gidle's work. No more 88rising. They botched this comeback with subpar music.

    x o x o

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  • Yeah in spotify those numbers are good, not so much on youtube, but the thing is outside the big youtube heavy hitters and outside big hits most videos do the majority of their streams in the first 100 days. Some of those songs already saw most of their streams and the numbers won't increase that much.


    Wut? Do you know maths? :pepewhat:


    Perfect Night has FORTY FOUR more months to accumulate streams if you're comparing it to Scream lmao. Scream has been out for 46 months already and has 50M streams. Perfect Night has been out 1.5 months and has 69M streams already and is still averaging 1.5M per day.


    Even if avg streams fell to a catastrophic low of 320k per day over the next 44.5 months, Perfect Night would have over 500 MILLION streams after 46 months lmao.

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