Newer acts coming out in 2022 beating NCT, txt, aespa, and so forth? 33
-
No (13) 39%
-
Yes (20) 61%
I have watched Kpop for quite a while.
There is something called First Mover Advantage. Someone which moved first has a decisive advantage over others because the first mover has established fans.
The Big 3 of the 2nd Gen (SNSD, Wonder Girls, Big Bang) kept their advantage to the end., although Wonder Girls did sag because JYP had sent them to USA. Only 2NE1, from YG, came to the same level to them. 2AM , 2PM, Beast (now Highlight), Shinee, etc , debuting later, fought well but they did not reach the level of the Big 3.
3rd Gen was a bit more complex. BTS(2013) beat EXO(2012) but EXO had all these mess, and no act debuting after 2013 ever came close to them. Wanna One was close, but a bit short.
Girl Groups were more interesting. Red Velvet (2014) was overtaken by Twice(2015) and BlackPink(2016) but after BlackPink it dried up. IOI, Momoland, IZOne , etc had their days under the sun but they did not exceed the acts mentioned above. GFriend (2015) , which was lucky enough to seize the short lull created by the Tzuyu incident, did maintain its position in the top echelon because of the first mover effect - only after GF declined decisively in 2020, leading to its disabandment, OhMyGirl was able to thrive. And OMG is the one latecomer which went anywhere, not considering Brave Girl's cinderella run which is already becoming a distant memory.
Even in the soloist genre, the person I am trying to avoid mentioning in this post has outlasted every other competition.
====
aespa already has a Grand Prize in their belt and has fans in the overseas.
NCT, txt and some other acts already have established fanbases.
StayC and Ive debuted before it is too late and the bandwagon effect is still there.
I think the acts which will debut in this year will face strong resistance from the fandom of these established acts. The market is kinda saturated, and one can only take so many acts.
NCT, by definition, will change members and can last for a long time, as intended by Mr. Sooman himself. txt is reaching its higher potential and aespa has already broken out.
Will the 2022 acts be able to beat them in the end? I doubt it.