What would be the realistic estimate for BTS' Power in 2025?

People foreget them and move on

Are you sure you aren't "Grouchy"

Maybe you should make a movie like 'Elvis' and compare Bang Si Hyuk to Colonel Tom Parker, who prevented Elvis from doing an international tour, Bang prevented further expansion of BTS.

Are you suggesting that BTS should have done a Bernadotte, ditched France for Sweden - ditch Korea for the West and be the kings there?

But too much analysis. The reality is no act ever keeps their popularity forever, BTS had a fantastic 5 years - but sooner or later - age, tastes, market dynamics will catch up. Solos will have a far better longevity.

It is also better to step down at the peak, than fade horribly.

They go at their own terms and barring an occasional nostalgia release, are better off pursuing solos and other things in life.

BTS will have a massive 2026 CB due to hype but sustaining that will be another story imo

And meanwhile, somebody is still infecting little kids, turning them into fans... what is your realistic estimate percentage in this case for 2025?

Quote from WhyKnock

That is the reality.

Most people who post here are hardcore fans who are unlikely to live. However many of the fan are casual who won't stick forever.

And it is the casual fans who brought BTS to the unbelievable heights.

I don't think BTS's heights were due to casual fans. If physical sales are the indication then they are highly fandom driven and ARMY is probably the most active, organized and assertive fandom.

If they were GP driven, then there would have been more #1s, PAKs than what they currently have.

Quote from Ves

WAIT WHAT? You think we'll all be dead by 2025?

"All of us are dead", let us go to "Hotel Del Luna"

Quote from WhyKnock

I know I would not be liked by writing this piece, but someone has to say it and if someone has to say it I will take the shot.

I personally think that BTS will retain about 40% of its power at 2020.

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Napoleon had 25 Marshals in the First Empire.

By the time he was deposed in 1814, 4 of them died by then.

One, Jean-Baptiste Bernadotte, became the King of Sweden and was firmly against Napoleon.

That left 20 Marshals, but all of them betrayed the Emperor.

When Napoleon returned in 1815, out of these 20 only Davout, Ney (with a lot of hesistations), Soult and Brune, a lesser known marshal (he defended the southern coast of France, and after Waterloo he was simply thrown to the sea by the mob.) rejoined the Emperor. (Murat, Napoleon's estranged brother-in-law, tried to organize a rebellion on his own but generally speaking he is not counted among those who rejoined the Emperor.)

A lot of them quickly excused themselves to other countries. Others changed their names and hid.

Napoleon removed those who didn't rejoin him from the list of Marshals, and added a chap named Grouchy to the rank.

At Waterloo, Davout, the best of the lot, had to be left at Paris, Ney had a mental breakdown, Soult did nothing (which eventually proved to be beneficial for his future career, although that is another story) and Grouchy messed up.

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BTS' halcyon success has very little comparison in history.

I have said, again and again, that Bang should have sent BTS to USA as soon as concerts resumed there, have a year long concert tour, ignore IU roaming around K-O-R-E-A and send them to Europe for the next stage, ignoring K-O-R-E-A and make them not think about K-O-R-E-A back them.

Bang's greed , lack of grand strategy, and short term profit motives to get K-O-R-E-A-N investment money will cost him HUGE. Bang should have forgotten Korea, leave Txt and Enhypen to their fate, and concentrate on his biggest cash cow but he was probably not advised correctly.

The halcyon days of BTS conquering the world is, I have to say, over.

I think it will still retain its aura until around late 2023. That would be when people begin to move on.

Armys will say this and that. That is a natural reaction. However after around 3 months reality begins to sink in and by end of next year a massive decline takes place.

If it had the concerts I described above, maybe they would still have retained a huge portion of their fandom. Instead the concerts were done in a haphazard way, a concert at Los Angeles, a concert at Vegas and a half-concert in Seoul (Which was eclipsed by IU in Sep 2022).

and the ill-fated concert at Pusan, which was compared, in K-O-R-E-A, with the concert IU just had a month ago.

BTS would NOT have met their overseas fans (except those in Los Angeles and Vegas) for SIX years in 2025.

Tony Orlando sang the song "Tie the Yellow Ribbon round the Ole Oak Tree", which Shinee covered.

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"Whoa, tie a yellow ribbon 'round the ole oak tree

It's been three long years, do you still want me?"

Armys already waited 2 years and all they got was a 'best' compilation album with three new songs. And now 3 more years.

Napoleon, after just 1 year of absence, had lost 80% of his super-fans and only 20% returned, and the new super-fan gained proved to be worse than useless.

Some fans will still remain in 2025. How many, it is hard to say. That's why I said 40%, giving the benefit of the doubt.

I am being realistic, using historical precedences.

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BTS will lose fans during enlistment but the biggest difference between BTS and other kpop groups is their ability to turn GP/casual fans into stans. There is a reason why practically every ARMY has talked about going down the BTS rabbit hole. Once you go in wanting to know their names, you come out of it a stan. So they might lose fans but they will regain more than they lost once they start their comeback. It’s easy to turn a kpop fan into a group stan but not so much with GP. Most of ARMY were GP not kpop Fans. BTS will be fine because Military service will give them plenty of the creative inspiration that they need. Nothing beats hardships and obstacles to get your creative juices going.

I do agree with you that Bang PD (or more likely the tech bro he put in charge) shouldn’t have focused on pandering to the SK government. A tour would have been better.

Why are you saying 2020?

Shouldn’t it rather be their current popularity that you should compare with?

If BTS becomes as big as when they were in 2020, that means their popularity fell behind

Quote from WhyKnock

If Putin gets crazy, yes, we will all meet at Hotel Del Luna.

Core fans provide most of the revenues but the casual fans are the explosive which feeds the fire.

The presence of the former owner of Hotel Del Luna led most boy acts to abandon going for PAKs, although BTS still retains Spring Day in the Melon 100.

What is important is the international casual fans drive the really big acts.

Out of the 9 major acts of last year, BTS (no explanation needed), The Weeknd, Ed Sheeran, Taylor Swift, Olivia Rodrigo, Justin Bieber and Dua Lipa all had no shortage of casual fans, Megan thee Stallion was on BTS' coattails, and even the local singer (IU) had no shortage of casual fans in Korea.

With only core fans remaining, BTS might do like Rose and Lisa in last year, both around #15 in the world ranking.

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Even internationally, I venture that BTS will have more fans than casual listeners.

My theory is that the success of Kpop is simply the ability to build and nurture fandoms, using parasocial relationships and monetizing them.

Music is just an excuse.

And BTS is the best practitioner of building fandoms.

Western artists are nowhere near that kind of fandom-building. They depend far more on casual listeners.

You can't compare solo performance with the groups, because a critical component of Kpop-fandom building is the group dynamic.

That is why no solo from even the most popular group, ever matches what the group achieved.

Fans put money where their mouth is. Otherwise talk is cheap.

Quote from WhyKnock

It is easier to train a soloist than a group where there has to be at least 7 to mimic BTS

Even Yang Jieun, the winner of Miss Trot 2, had been following Lee Jieun , hoping Yang's daughter might become like IU.

The trend is turning, which is another major topic which is better left for the future.

But then it is easier for groups to find success, even if 1 or 2 of the group capture public imagination - better chances. And lesser risk, if a group member goes out, the whole brand won't.

SES Eugene also wanted her daughter to be like IU.

But I am sure there are lot of celebrity parents who would want their sons to be like BTS.

Hardly surprising.

But seriously, if HYBE plans well and staggers enlistment, then they can do solos enlist - exit do solos - and keep the group in spotlight.

It is not as though they will entirely vanish from public view to assume "Out of sight, out of mind".

However, there will be decline anyway. Already PROOF-YTC wasn't up to their previous releases. No big deal.

After all there is the other cliched dynamic "Absence will make the heart grow fonder"

Lmao, this post is so full of shit. Is insulting

Quote from OnceMidzy4ever

Lmao, this post is so full of shit. Is insulting

What's wild to me is the bald-faced Napoleon spiel that becomes this forced analogy for BTS' decline, somehow trying to equate kpop stan culture to political allegiance??? They're not the same things, dawg.

Why make the long reach to the 19th century, when you can just use the precedent of BB dropping Still Life after military/scandal time and still exploding within SK? I guess brevity really is wit.

all these essays about their supposedly declining power in 2025 while they are lowkey going viral among public crowds who are shocked at the news of their enlistment and started checking them out and slowly going down the rabbit hole WHILE knowing they are away for a while is funny to me

Quote from WhyKnock

BigBang Exploding?

How many concerts did it do?

This round is basically its swan song, a goodbye to its fans. It is extremely unlikely that they will ever re-unite within 10 years.

why are concerts the chosen strawman here? The key message is that absence does not bear the same consequences for politicians in power struggles as they would for a group and its fanbase. I'm trying to be charitable trying to see your connection but it just doesn't stick the landing. Still Life dropped and had they followed through with a tour they would have been at an elite level, same as before.

And if you want to make the assertion that BTS will barely be able to play arena shows by 2024, that's fine. Obviously I disagree, and part of my argument would point to their huge Western following, which as a concert-going demographic are much more used to longer wait times (2 years mattering very little) to see eastablished stadium-level acts.

I can't with your essays

I come for whyknock stay for the history lesson

Quote from WhyKnock

BTS was always 'the sum is greater than the components', and that was proven correct when JHope's album didn't do too great.

Also, more solo activities means the group might end up like 1Direction, with the better performing members seeking their own destiny.

Now all kinds of possibilities are open, most of them not really positive for maintaining the group's integrity till 2025.

YG chose to promote BlackPink this year because even though it had tried using solos, the impact is much smaller using the group as one.

Bang is not a master of planning. He is easily swayed by sweet talkers. By 2024, BTS would probably be only remembered by its hardcore fans. Maybe some arena tours if any (I have some more opinion on 2025 but won't say it now), but never earth shaking tours in various cities of the world.

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Not just BTS, the group dynamic is definitely important to pretty much all groups.

But needs must, sub units and solos can keep up the visibility for these months.

We will have to wait and watch

I don't expect great group activity in future, but that's irrespective of enlistment.

They will never disband, but just reduced the quantum of group activity over time as they independently do other things.

Their first comeback as a group after enlistment will be a huge hit, but beyond that the impact will progressively reduce, that is unavoidable for any group

Quote from WhyKnock

BTS was always 'the sum is greater than the components', and that was proven correct when JHope's album didn't do too great.

Also, more solo activities means the group might end up like 1Direction, with the better performing members seeking their own destiny.

Now all kinds of possibilities are open, most of them not really positive for maintaining the group's integrity till 2025.

YG chose to promote BlackPink this year because even though it had tried using solos, the impact is much smaller using the group as one.

Bang is not a master of planning. He is easily swayed by sweet talkers. By 2024, BTS would probably be only remembered by its hardcore fans. Maybe some arena tours if any (I have some more opinion on 2025 but won't say it now), but never earth shaking tours in various cities of the world.

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I hope you are here in 2025 and 2026, cause i for sure am gonna tag you for this bullshit...BTs getting downgraded to arena artists on their comeback. Yo you really have lost your marbles

Quote from WhyKnock

IT happens. It is a fact of life.

It is not a fact of life. You are using wrong analogies. Better use music for your reference. In music industry 2.5 years is barely any time. Had BTS delayed OT7 comeback till maybe 2028, it would still be understandable that they lost some fans but if they are all gonna enlist close apart and return by 2025, it is a masterstroke. They will barely be gone for long.

BTS are not your typical Kpop act, they are now a global mainstream legacy act. When they return it will be news all over the globe just like how their enlistment was. The number of locals and gp who will tune in to check them out will be massive.

Also you are underestimating Armys and thinking that they are just like any other Kpop fandom.Hybe is gonna keep churning music in solos and subunits and even lots of pre filmed OT7 content to keep Armys engaged. You are using faulty judgement thinking they have nothing planned. BTS have spent most of the past 1.5 years filming and preparing for enlistment. Also the lack of ample group music in the past more than 1.5 years has trained Armys for this drought.

Lots of erroneous assumptions in your theory cause neither do you understand BTS or have much knowledge about their activities nor do you understand Armys mindset having an outsider's perspective. You will be in for a shock.