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It's often been said by members of the AKP forum that touring is the best indicator of success, as well as the most profitable activity that an artist can partake in. Thus, I wanted to examine concert attendance figures for major girl groups of the Third Generation.
To do this, I first compiled published attendance numbers from Touring Data (on Twitter and Wordpress), Wikipedia, Fandom.com, and Namuwiki. However, the problem is that many concerts don't actually have attendance figures listed, so in these cases, I had to estimate based on venue capacity. For smaller venues such as theatres and auditoriums, I used an estimate of 90% of capacity. For larger venues such as arenas and stadiums, I used 80% of capacity, since these larger venues typically don't have existing stages, and thus construction of one necessarily reduces the number of people the venue can hold.
My results are shown in the chart below. Sub-unit and solo concert attendance is not included. Each circular marker represents a concert, and they sum up cumulatively over time. Official colours were used when possible, and the data are current to the end of 2022:
As we can clearly see, Blackpink and Twice are the only groups with significant touring power. What I found interesting is that their attendance figures have largely mirrored each other over the years. Twice has historically maintained an edge for the most part, but Blackpink recently took a decisive lead, which isn't too surprising given that they've been touring extensively as of late.
This then begs the question: what will 2023 bring for the two rivals? I'm expecting that the remaining 23 shows of the Born Pink tour will add on around 500K+ to Blackpink's total. But Twice likely isn't going to stand still, and I've heard people on this forum claim that they're planning on touring in 2023 as well. Will they expand their tour to finally include stops in South America and Europe? That seems like a logical move to me, as does playing more shows in Southeast Asia. Twice will have to make up a deficit of about 560K to take the lead again by the close of 2023. This is certainly within the realm of possibility, but might require that JYPE takes some bigger risks, which the company may the loath to do.
The next three groups with the highest attendance figures are Red Velvet, Mamamoo, and Dreamcatcher. I think it's safe to say that none of them will be challenging Twice or Blackpink at the top, but I also think that their positions probably won't be threatened by any of their other peers. I was pleasantly surprised by Dreamcatcher in particular, since they've actually toured in more countries than Blackpink and Twice, combined. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if they eventually surpass Mamamoo.
Are there any other interesting observations to make? And are there any other groups that should be included in this analysis?
Further Reading on This Topic:
The Chart Above, Updated with 2018 Girl Group Debuts
Table of Attendance Totals, Number of Shows, and Number of Countries
