Aespa 2021 are not Twice 2016 - the importance of context

  • So I'm probably more critical of Twice, their position, direction, management etc than 99% of people on this site (I'm sure other Twice fans will attest to this) but anytime we come around to award season I feel like people downplay Twice. Not just their past but also their present (to an extent they've become desensitised to what they do).


    Twice swept basically every GG award in 2016 and some people seem to think Aespa should be doing the same but the fundamental difference people are missing when you compare the two is context. Twice were a massive anomaly at that time with what they were achieving and the numbers they were pulling against every girl group (and 99% of bg's) in multiple metrics, not just their own gen.


    Similarities - have taken over SK (though exposure not as big as Twice), have taken over their gen and had a huge song


    Differences - context. Even if you want to look at it with a negative stance and say weaker competition, good timing, a smaller kpop market etc, it doesn't matter. Twice's position within the GG scene relatively in 2016 is night and day to Aespa in 2021.


    Twice basically sweeped every girl group award in 2016 because:


    - They were an anomaly against every other girl group at the time in physicals. This wasn't them selling a bit less than their closest competitor or a tiny bit more, but them selling 3/4 times more against every gg. TCL1 was the 5th best selling album of the year, only behind 2 BTS/EXO albums. The last time a GG sold above 350k was SNSD back in 2011.

    - Only gg in the last 10 years to top the Melon year-end chart (note award shows are done close to calendar years). Before them it was Tara with Roly-Poly in 2011

    - Set international records - before BP/BTS it was Twice setting the Youtube records for kpop. Rookie Twice with Cheer Up beat Big Bang's record for quickest to 100m which TT itself then broke

    - Broke into Japan - self-explanatory. Laid the path to dominate for the next 5/6 years in Japan with only one group in BTS, the biggest anomaly in kpop ever, challenging and eventually surpassing them there

    - Were the most popular group in the country in 2016 and beat every other group on Gallup to showcase that


    Long story short - Aespa's achievements are massively impressive, but they won't walk away with every GG award because they don't dominate in multiple metrics against all gg's like Twice did in 2016 (or BP last year) to make it a slam dunk. The 3rd gen still achieve a lot so their competition is not just their own gen (who they do dominate in most facets already).

  • in general it doesnt make sense to compare different times, lots have changed

    Agreed but the relative position of groups can still be compared once you factor in context for purposes such as this.


    If Aespa were selling double what Twice were selling, like Twice were doing to their competition, do you think anyone could argue against Aespa sweeping all the GG awards, with the digitals they have as well? Twice were massively ahead of the competition that it was unarguable. They were doing things no other girl group at the time was near to.

  • Twice and JYPE rode off a fairly popular survival show and was in cahoots with Mnet, who created and produced that very survival show; so of course they would going to be favored for a number of those awards. Granted, their debut song was one of their better songs of their career (although that is not saying much).

  • Twice and JYPE rode off a fairly popular survival show and was in cahoots with Mnet, who created and produced that very survival show; so of course they would going to be favored for a number of those awards. Granted, their debut song was one of their better songs of their career (although that is not saying much).

    Actually Sixteen wasn't that popular and many people considered that Twice's debut was a "flop" for a Big 3 until it slowly started picking up by word of mouth organically

  • Twice and JYPE rode off a fairly popular survival show and was in cahoots with Mnet, who created and produced that very survival show; so of course they would going to be favored for a number of those awards. Granted, their debut song was one of their better songs of their career (although that is not saying much).

    Sixteen was not popular and Produce was MNET's baby in 2016 with IOI so of course they'd want to push Twice to make them as big as ever? Makes sense.

  • Actually Sixteen wasn't that popular and many people considered that Twice's debut was a "flop" for a Big 3 until it slowly started picking up by word of mouth organically

    No, it was popular enough to garner a sizeable pre-debut following and with a workable marketability-- not to the extent as those subsequent Produce groups, I admit, but never underestimate the marketing prowess of JYPE with regards to girl groups.

  • Twice and JYPE rode off a fairly popular survival show and was in cahoots with Mnet, who created and produced that very survival show; so of course they would going to be favored for a number of those awards. Granted, their debut song was one of their better songs of their career (although that is not saying much).


    Actually Sixteen wasn't that popular and many people considered that Twice's debut was a "flop" for a Big 3 until it slowly started picking up by word of mouth organically


    HOLY SHIT, people call the POPE because I am for ONCE on the same side as the God King Teshub.


    Sixteen got 1.75 rating if I remember right. That was 2015 so I am pretty sure it's wrong.

    Also Teshub it was Cheer up that launched them

  • No, it was popular enough to garner a sizeable pre-debut following and with a workable marketability-- not to the extent as those subsequent Produce groups, I admit, but never underestimate the marketing prowess of JYPE with regards to girl groups.

    The JYPE brand was what actually helped their initial popularity, not Sixteen. That show just solidified their pre-built following . Sixteen and Produce shows are worlds apart


    Sixteen helped in terms of creating content, such as videos and fan taken photos, especially of Nayeon, J-line and Tzuyu, which was spread around even after the show ended, and that helped them gain new fans weeks after their debut

  • The JYPE brand was what actually helped their initial popularity, not Sixteen. That show just solidified their pre-built following . Sixteen and Produce shows are worlds apart


    Sixteen helped in terms of creating content, such as videos and fan taken photos, especially of Nayeon, J-line and Tzuyu, which was spread around even after the show ended, and that helped them gain new fans weeks after their debut

    I don't think you contradicted me.

  • No, it was popular enough to garner a sizeable pre-debut following and with a workable marketability-- not to the extent as those subsequent Produce groups, I admit, but never underestimate the marketing prowess of JYPE with regards to girl groups.

    I wouldn't call their predebut fanbase sizeable tbh. Their debut album only sold 8k in their first week and 700 copies on their first day.

  • Twice and JYPE rode off a fairly popular survival show and was in cahoots with Mnet, who created and produced that very survival show; so of course they would going to be favored for a number of those awards. Granted, their debut song was one of their better songs of their career (although that is not saying much).

    As if the first half of your comment wasn't nonsense enough, you confirmed that we should disregard anything you say about Twice with your brackets at the end.

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  • I joined kpop fandoms around the same time and i remember the hype twice had. I used to get jealous because on every award show twice looked like the main character. 🤣 I used to stan some other gg.

  • I would say the difference between 2021 and 2016 are not that the huge, the difference between 2010/2011 and 2016 is much greater.

    Lol, even groups that have no hit anywhere are selling near or above 1 million nowadays, it's not even close. Spotify also has like more than 5 times the userbase compared to 2016. Kpop in general just had an exponential rise since 2016 mainly bc of bts & then bp

  • I feel like previous generation fans just need to stop making posts like this all together. It’s not a good look.


    First of all the kpop scene is different. No debut group will ever sell as much as previous top group any more. It’s never gonna happen because kpop is at the zenith of physical sales rn.


    Why compare things that are not comparable.

    Feel like this is missing the point of this post - this is mainly to explain their relative position within their respective years to show why they are not one and the same when people talk about things such as awards despite some similarities at a high level. As a lot of people want to compare debut years.


    Sales and international popularity being bigger than ever is exactly why they will not have the same statistics/records as Twice did versus other gg's and therefore their output (in this instance awards) won't be the same. The whole point of the post is to add context around the environment of Twice in 2016 and Aespa now (hence me mentioning weaker competition, timing etc), not to have a jibe at Aespa.

  • Lol, even groups that have no hit anywhere are selling near or above 1 million nowadays, it's not even close. Spotify also has like more than 5 times the userbase compared to 2016. Kpop in general just had an exponential rise since 2016 mainly bc of bts & then bp

    Funny thing is that Bigbangs Fantastic Baby was still the most viewed group MV until 2018

  • Lol, even groups that have no hit anywhere are selling near or above 1 million nowadays, it's not even close. Spotify also has like more than 5 times the userbase compared to 2016. Kpop in general just had an exponential rise since 2016 mainly bc of bts & then bp

    Yeah, well, it's a super huge difference between 2016 and 2010 when it comes to digitalisation and social media. The leap is not that big from 2016 to 2021


    Edit: Okay, the leap is maybe big if you look at the south asian "poorer" contries compared to the west.

  • I would say the difference between 2021 and 2016 are not that the huge, the difference between 2010/2011 and 2016 is much greater.

    With respect I don't really have meuch to say about this bit since it's not in question here and I have always agreed comparing the likes of TWICE, Red Velvet and Blackpink to groups of that era like Kara, SNSD and T-Ara was also pointless.


    But a lot has changed in that time('16-'21) that people take for granted. Back then out of active groups only 2 were coming anywhere near 900 thousand to 1 million consistently and both of those were consider top groups who excelled in almost all areas at the time. Now we have like 4-5 4th generation groups hitting those numbers while, again being respectful, not being considered even close to top tier groups.

    In 2016 hitting 100m views was still considered a massive achievement taking groups like TWICE and BTS around 2-4 months to hit that target. Spotify, Apple Music, etc weren't even considered relevant almost at all while today they are considered a primary target for idols.


    Regardless of how big the gulf of 2011-2016 was, 2016 and 2021 have enormous differences in the Kpop landscape. The Kpop market is also way way bigger now, while you could argue that the Kpop market in 2016/17 was smaller than say in 2nd generation considering the China soft ban, Japan's market shrinking by about 30% and the fact that the international boom, that 4th gen acts enjoy off the bat now, wasn't in swing yet.


    The comparisons will never be accurate, thus so should never even start.

  • Twice is still owning on the year of the Lord 2021.

    Sad about it?

    Feel like crying about it?


    Go ask somebody else because I only have the feels for Twice!


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  • In 2016 hitting 100m views was still considered a massive achievement taking groups like TWICE and BTS around 2-4 months to hit that target. Spotify, Apple Music, etc weren't even considered relevant almost at all while today they are considered a primary target for idols.

    I think all depend on in what part of the world you look at. Yes, I also think it's maybe a bigger diffrence if you look at the asian contries where the amount of people owning a phone with fast internet access proably have change a lot from between 2016 to 2021. But I don't think it have changed that much in contries like USA, Sweden or South Korea.

  • Twice and JYPE rode off a fairly popular survival show and was in cahoots with Mnet, who created and produced that very survival show; so of course they would going to be favored for a number of those awards. Granted, their debut song was one of their better songs of their career (although that is not saying much).

    wait do u dislike.... like every gg song?


    what songs do u like? :melon_think::melon_think:

  • First of all the kpop scene is different. No debut group will ever sell as much as previous top group any more. It’s never gonna happen because kpop is at the zenith of physical sales rn.

    honestly, that's ridiculous.

    groups will sell more than bts and bp straight out of debut if they do well. bts might be harder but bp is doable. rookie boy groups sell 1M easily nowadays, there's nothing stopping girl groups from doing that too.

    no one thought groups would sell more than 300k. that was a huge number back in 2016, and rookie twice broke those records. sales should've actually gone down since the 1990s when everything had to be physical, but they've gone up instead.


    just say that bts and bp are too unbeatable at this stage and move on.

    this too shall pass. one day people will laugh at 6-7M and talk about their faves selling in the 10M range

    r o s e s   a n d   p e a c h e s

  • hmmmm are you idolizing me? But thanks!

  • Twice and JYPE rode off a fairly popular survival show and was in cahoots with Mnet, who created and produced that very survival show; so of course they would going to be favored for a number of those awards. Granted, their debut song was one of their better songs of their career (although that is not saying much).

    even so ? They’re still bigger than aespa in their debut year got it?

  • can you please stop dragging down Twice just to pit them against Aespa to only make yourself feel relevant?

    We have already established that absolutely nobody in the Once fandom likes you on this site.

    are they a thrice or something?

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