What Year Do You Think Will Be The Defining Year For 4th Gen Groups?

idk but according to txt’s fortune tellers 2022 and 2025-27 are big years for them so all i gotta do is wait for the puzzle to piece together

2022

i'll say give it a few more years, but like tbh i don't see 3rd gen slowing down at all yet, the most of the 3rd gen groups u mentioned are still improving and doing better than ever, but we'll see, the kpop scene is evolving really fast

2022 seems like an interesting number LMAO

Either this year or next year. Some of the most anticipated groups haven't debuted yet.

at least for ggs (since i dont care that much about bgs) 2022-2023. all the big ggs would be renewing or not renewing their contracts. (groups like twice, oh my girl, blackpink any other 2015-2016 gg). by that time, ygngg, bhngg, and cubes ngg will be debuted and a year or two in. groups like aespa, stayc, weeekly etc would probably have their smash hit and are building a strong fanbase)

im not saying 3rd gen ggs will automatically disband or go on hiatus but around 2016, snsd and miss a was on hiatus im pretty sure, 2ne1, kara and 4minute were disbanded or basically diabanded, i dont even know where wg was. at the time all the 3rd gen ggs were having a hit all the 2nd gen ggs were slowing down or dead, so it would probably happen for 3rd gen ggs too.

I think this is a good opportunity to bring back this graphic I generated back in March:

GGWinsGens.png

As stated in the initial post, it's plainly evident that there was a changing of the guard in 2016, when Second Generation wins fell dramatically. My guess is that we'll see a similar shift around 2022, but the changeover won't be nearly as dramatic.

I'm not sure if new gen will get hits left and right but I think there will be an interest/hype shift for new groups in the next years (2022-2024), every group from big companies will have already debuted by then and oldest new groups will already have a strong fandom. 3rd gen groups will slow down as group as they get older and general hype/interest doesn't last forever either. I don't think exo or bts are going nowhere anytime soon unless the members decide so but the hype will go down even for them at some point (unless they pull off an IU )

I think for the first time, the non-big 3/Hybe rookie girl groups that came out 2020/2021 look really professional and exciting. They don't look like rookies at all and they don't look like small agency groups. Their training, polish and talent can challenge any big 4 group and the quality and production values of their songs/MVs look so expensive and high class.