Can 4th generation girl groups match Blackpink and Twice's touring performance in the future?

Quote from 0ppar

Nope, kpop is heading into a deflationary cycle

Is this a quote from 2012, 2017 or 2020?

Quote from Fansamy

Is this a quote from 2012, 2017 or 2020?

2023

It will take time for these 4th gen groups to get a big enough fandom to be able to tour stadiums

Blackpink's first stadiums (Debut Aug 2016):

Japan - Dec 2018

US - Nov 2022

Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan, Philippines, Mexico, Singapore, France, Vietnam - all in 2023

Twice's first stadiums (Debut Oct 2015):

Japan - March 2019

US - May 2022

Philippines, Australia, Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil - all 2023

Quote from Popper-of-Ks

I don't see how that would even be a factor, unless you're too broke to attend more than one concert.

Well, yeah, for some it is a factor really.

Concerts aren't cheap at all, money is tighter for many people these days and for many, going a concert also involves travel expenses and hotels.

I can guarantee that NO kpop groups will ever come to my Australian city. The cities they will go to, Sydney and Melbourne are a 14 hour straight drive for Sydney or a 20 hour drive to Melb. Or expensive plane tickets. Then hotels. That adds up fast. Plus the logistics of probably needing at least two days off work (four if driving to Melb and back).

So yes, for many people, going to multiple concerts a year isn't a realistic option.

Quote from Popper-of-Ks

I don't see how that would even be a factor, unless you're too broke to attend more than one concert.

Because Blackpink and Twice already have a headstart. If they keep touring with high attendees per concert, it would be much harder for later generations to keep up.

No

Y'all Blinks and Onces are ignorant, what if in the future some Middle Eastern countries and China no longer has strict policies, some African countries upgrade their status into developing countries, Russia and North Korea no longer at war with anyone, Antarctica and Mars becomes inhabitable, what if countries' populations exploded??? So many untapped market for kpop atm, who knows what will happen in the future

Quote from Popper-of-Ks

I don't see how that would even be a factor, unless you're too broke to attend more than one concert.

They were "local" only if you're counting every country a member hails from. Twice were doing Tokyo Dome when BP were doing arenas.

BP did their first dome concert in late 2018 while Twice didn't set foot in anything larger than an arena in Japan until 2019.

Quote from Armedryu

Y'all Blinks and Onces are ignorant, what if in the future some Middle Eastern countries and China no longer has strict policies, some African countries upgrade their status into developing countries, Russia and North Korea no longer at war with anyone, Antarctica and Mars becomes inhabitable, what if countries' populations exploded??? So many untapped market for kpop atm, who knows what will happen in the future

There’s one thing GG’s haven’t done yet : tour big in Korea. It’ll be interesting to see if any GG can break that glass ceiling and do Jamsil or like 6-7 nights in KSPO

Quote from Chocolate-cheeks

It will take time for these 4th gen groups to get a big enough fandom to be able to tour stadiums

Blackpink's first stadiums (Debut Aug 2016):

Japan - Dec 2018

US - Nov 2022

Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan, Philippines, Mexico, Singapore, France, Vietnam - all in 2023

Twice's first stadiums (Debut Oct 2015):

Japan - March 2019

US - May 2022

Philippines, Australia, Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil - all 2023

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2 to 4 years (Japan)

6 Years for the USA?

IVE is giving it a go in medium sized venues, bigger than StayC, Red Velvet, G-idle. Bun not as big as Twice or BP.

Quote from ellenote

Imo, No. I don't see any 4th gen girl group pulling off BP or Twice's touring number in the future at all. I don't even think any group has a stable enough fanbase to tour at all, and in the future, I really don't see these groups being big enough to do huge world tours and sell out stadiums.

It took BP over 5 years to tour that well with a million concert attendees, so until all 4th gen ggs are that old, I wouldn't underestimate them.

Aespa alone already sold out the Tokyo Dome as a rookie gg. That says a lot about their potential.

I think the way they are managed will determine whether they'll get to grow that big or even bigger or not.

Time will tell.

Aespa has already done Tokyo Dome in year 3. NJ and Lsf which are only ~1.5 years old, seem to be on track to do similar in their 3rd year. Then we have BM as a wildcard and there is a lot of international hype for them. So stadiums, yes. Stadiums in many countries on the same scale as BP and Twice, will depend if they can keep growing or not.

Other groups have lost momentum/trendiness/growth internationally.

Quote from 0ppar

2023

And every other year since Kpop first moved out of Korea

If Twice can tour to this much then for sure NJ can in the future.