Please take a look at this post for the addition of Iz*One/Loona/(G)I-dle, whom some regard as 3.5th Generation.
Itzy just started touring, and probably has around 50K attendance so far, though their Checkmate tour is continuing into 2023 with eight more shows. StayC hasn't done any concerts as far as I know, but Aespa did have a few "Synk" showcases.
Aespa will probably have a higher attendance than most of the groups on this through fanmeets/showcases alone I'd imagine
it is true BP had edge over TWICE now
but back at TWICE peak 2016-2018
I believe they can exceed BP by a wide margin
if they make a tour /concert collection of their song from
2015-2018
damn Dreamcatcher. Not bad.. not bad at all
How many dates did you calculate in BP and Twice's case??
Please see the table here for a summary of how many concerts I considered for each artist. BP and Twice have actually played a similar number of shows.
This is interesting. I feel like Twice’s Japan dates really gives them big jumps in the graph
For sure; each of those dome shows essentially adds on around 40K-50K of attendance. Now that I think about it, Twice could probably catch up playing nothing but domes in Japan. I recall people on this forum stating that they had something like a million ticket requests for one of their Japanese concert tours.
I suppose this doesn't include the virtual concerts numbers or does it?
It does not, as I don't think online concerts are quite equivalent to the real thing. In addition, there's no way to really estimate online concert attendance, since you don't have the constraints of venue capacity to work with.
Dreamcatcher are probably the least successful group on that list domestically in South Korea, so they were always forced to look outwards with their concept. I'm also going to guess here and say they have a pretty low standard deviation? So when it come to picking countries the opportunity cost of performing in one place over another is probably not as large as say Twice.
I'm glad you brought that up. As shown in the table below, I've calculated both the standard deviation and relative standard deviation (= σ ÷ μ, which I generally prefer using) for all the groups. Dreamcatcher's RSD is middle of the pack, and isn't as low as one would expect, likely because they played some extremely small shows (a couple hundred people) early in their career. On the other hand, Twice's RSD is easily the highest among everyone here, as you correctly intuited.
3G+2018_GG_Concert_Attendance_Summary_SD.png
JYPE notoriously plays it safe with them - they'll send all their boy groups to Europe after a year or so but always refused to send Twice as they'd rather keep them in Japan where they are guaranteed to sell out large arenas and Domes. I think one of the main reasons Twice renewed is because they want to do one big and genuine world tour before completely slowing down so will be shocked if places like Europe, Australia and South America aren't included in their next tour.
Yes, I've often seen people on this forum complain about JYPE playing it safe with Twice, but hopefully that'll change given their recent contract renewal. I just ran the numbers, and according to my estimates, a whopping 659,948 of their 971,638 total comes from Japan--that's 68%!
I'm not including fanmeets currently, though I am taking into account showcases if they're "concert-esque", i.e. not like a press showcase that groups often put on at the start of a comeback period.
I'm including standalone concerts for the purposes of this analysis. For WJSN, I'm showing:
WJSN 1st Concert "Would You Like – Happy Moment"
2017-05-19 | South Korea | Seoul | Blue Square Samsung Card Hall
2017-05-20 | South Korea | Seoul | Blue Square Samsung Card Hall
WJSN Concert "Would You Stay – Secret Box"
2019-03-02 | South Korea | Seoul | Blue Square iMarket Hall
2019-03-03 | South Korea | Seoul | Blue Square iMarket Hall
WJSN 1st Mini Live "Would You Like?" 2019 Zepp Tour in Japan
2019-08-17 | Japan | Tokyo | Zepp DiverCity
2019-08-24 | Japan | Osaka | Zepp Osaka Bayside
2019-08-25 | Japan | Nagoya | Zepp Nagoya
2022 WJSN Concert "Wonderland"
2022-06-11 | South Korea | Seoul | Olympic Hall
2022-06-12 | South Korea | Seoul | Olympic Hall
Happy for Dreamcatcher - glad their tours abroad is well received and if they come anywhere near me, I would def go.
The gap.
Twice are doing well in the US. They had over 80k fans there they haven’t announced an Asian tour which is weird anyway I hope next year they’re coming in Paris.
I'm curious, where are you getting the 80K figure from? I'm estimating US attendance for their "III" tour at roughly 140K.
I'm curious, where are you getting the 80K figure from? I'm estimating US attendance for their "III" tour at roughly 140K.
JYP announced 100k While touring data on Twitter the source is reported by Billboard the total numbers were 80k
JYP announced 100k While touring data on Twitter the source is reported by Billboard the total numbers were 80k
Can you provide links to the sources for these numbers? I'd like to update my spreadsheet accordingly, and I'm also wondering how my estimates could have been off by so much.
Can you provide links to the sources for these numbers? I'd like to update my spreadsheet accordingly, and I'm also wondering how my estimates could have been off by so much.
It’s only based on 6 dates though I don’t think BB reported these 2 California dates I guess they may have passed the +100k marks
It’s only based on 6 dates though I don’t think BB reported these 2 California dates I guess they may have passed the +100k marks
Ah thanks. If I look at only the first six US concerts of the III tour, my numbers line up much closer. The 140K figure I mentioned earlier was for all nine shows.
On a related note, have you seen any numbers for Itzy's recent US shows yet?
Please take a look at this post for the addition of Iz*One/Loona/(G)I-dle, whom some regard as 3.5th Generation.
Itzy just started touring, and probably has around 50K attendance so far, though their Checkmate tour is continuing into 2023 with eight more shows. StayC hasn't done any concerts as far as I know, but Aespa did have a few "Synk" showcases.
If you want to throw in JYPE's Japanese sister group that just started touring. Their number is around 380,000. Since they are supposedly doing a Korean release Early/Mid next year people might want to cross consider them a JPOP/KPOP 4th Gen group.
If you want to throw in JYPE's Japanese sister group that just started touring. Their number is around 380,000. Since they are supposedly doing a Korean release Early/Mid next year people might want to cross consider them a JPOP/KPOP 4th Gen group.
Yep that 380K figure is around what I was estimating as well: (16 × 11K) for their first leg + (4 × 50K) for their second leg = 376K.
It just goes to show that it can be quite lucrative to tour just solely in Japan.
Would love to see this updated again someday.
Display MoreIt's often been said by members of the AKP forum that touring is the best indicator of success, as well as the most profitable activity that an artist can partake in. Thus, I wanted to examine concert attendance figures for major girl groups of the Third Generation.
To do this, I first compiled published attendance numbers from Wikipedia and Fandom.com. However, the problem is that most concerts don't actually have attendance figures listed, so I had to estimate based on venue capacity. For smaller venues such as theatres and auditoriums, I used an estimate of 90% of capacity. For larger venues such as arenas and stadiums, I used 80% of capacity, since these larger venues typically don't have existing stages, and thus construction of one necessarily reduces the number of people the venue can hold.
My results are shown in the chart below. Each circular marker represents a concert, and they sum up cumulatively over time. Official colours were used when possible, and the data are current to the end of 2022:
As we can clearly see, Blackpink and Twice are the only groups with significant touring power. What I found interesting is that their attendance figures have largely mirrored each other over the years. Twice has historically maintained an edge for the most part, but Blackpink recently took a decisive lead, which isn't too surprising given that they've been touring extensively as of late.
This then begs the question: what will 2023 bring for the two rivals? I'm expecting that the remaining 23 shows of the Born Pink tour will add on around 500K+ to Blackpink's total. But Twice likely isn't going to stand still, and I've heard people on this forum claim that they're planning on touring in 2023 as well. Will they expand their tour to finally include stops in South America and Europe? That seems like a logical move to me, as does playing more shows in Southeast Asia. Twice will have to make up a deficit of about 560K to take the lead again by the close of 2023. This is certainly within the realm of possibility, but might require that JYPE takes some bigger risks, which the company may the loath to do.
The next three groups with the highest attendance figures are Red Velvet, Mamamoo, and Dreamcatcher. I think it's safe to say that none of them will be challenging Twice or Blackpink at the top, but I also think that their positions probably won't be threatened by any of their other peers. I was pleasantly surprised by Dreamcatcher in particular, since they've actually toured in more countries than Blackpink and Twice, combined. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if they eventually surpass Mamamoo.
Are there any other interesting observations to make? And are there any other groups that should be included in this analysis?
Further Reading on This Topic:
The Chart Above, Updated with 2018 Girl Group Debuts
Table of Attendance Totals, Number of Shows, and Number of Countries
2023 so far.
1. @BLACKPINK (2023) - 1.1M [31/38 shows so far]
2. TWICE (2023) - 530K [23/38 shows so far]
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