Posts by oneinamiyeon

I shudder to think what would have happened in a world where another director other than MHJ was hired by Hybe to launch a gg. LSF would still exist as it was BSH's brainchild out of wedlock whose revelation has caused much of the turmoil rightly or wrongly. But it's obvious that NewJeans likely wouldn't have been born.

But let's say someone else, call her JHM, had the exact same scouting criteria and aesthetic and musical taste. I'd argue the risk of stillbirth, if not abortion would be quite high. Would someone other than MHJ be able to stand up to the following?

- BSH suggesting a different more mature concept

- BSH arguing that Attention was weaksauce for a debut and maybe suggesting a different direction in music altogether

- BSH suggesting replacing even the designated trainees, who had been working hard for years and who joined to be part of the first Hybe gg to debut, with former idols coming off contracts as they had more name recognition

- And now that NewJeans has proven its model successful, BSH doing a 180 and allegedly stealing elements from NewJeans to create ILLIT. Let's even say BSH asked JHM for permission.

Would the acceptable answer be anything other than "Yes Bang Si Hyuk PD Nim"? to all the above? Seems to be what the more Hybe leaning side is more amenable to.

Also were it not for the fact that Hybe for its own self-interested reasons did not want to risk losing MHJ, ADOR wouldn't have been set up. JHM would likely have been told to manage LSF at Source. JHM's likely answer? "Yes, Bang Si Hyuk PD Nim.". I'm not sure NewJeans would've happened after that.

Too bad for OT5. With JHM at Source, as RM would put it, "Right place, wrong person".

Quote from Tr12345

What Hybe is doing now is because they have their own business agenda, and they're trying to play a long game. Do you think they care if they tainted Newjeans' name now if that means they can control the girls' future and all the group's profits will go mostly to them without Mhj involvement anymore?

As it stands now, Hybe already owns 80% of ADOR. If you believe it's all about money (which I don't) then of course owning 100% would be preferable provided they really believe that the additional 20% of ADOR they could finagle back is worth more than the growth that continued management under MHJ could continue to produce. Didn't they grow something like 500% w/o touring and before bg? If they thought 20% was worth it when it was an unproven venture, why is it all of a sudden too much?

So an opposite argument based purely on money could be made that they are being shortsighted and stupid if it is the case that they're mainly motivated by not wanting to pay MHJ the agreed upon price. A price based not just on revenue, but on cost efficiency that puts some of their other sublabels to shame in terms of maximizing operating profit.

Quote from Tr12345

You don't even notice how Min Heejin said she's not that stupid to try to take over Ador, or even having outside rich investors to buy their stocks to get the company and Newjeans out of Hybe. Well, because she knows it wouldn't work. Newjeans will be destroyed if she trying any if it.

I agree and view the takeover allegations as mediaplay.

This whole thing makes little business sense. Let me put myself in Hybe's shoes and get into character as a ruthless capitalist. I have a wildly successful sublabel that I own 80% of. The 20% that I gave as incentive was based on a low valuation of 13x as appropriate for the time for an unproven label. Even factoring out plans of debuting a bg or kicking off a tour, ADOR stock today, if traded publically with its blue chip status would fetch at least double or 26x. But it's private so it's worth what I say it's worth. She's asked for more transparency regarding how compensation is determined, but nah. I'll just say I'll think about it. I am a bit ticked off though that a female art school graduate like her is wise to this. I wonder who's advising her on her worth.

MHJ can try to renegotiate with me.

MHJ can try to bring investors to buy 31% of my ADOR stock so she controls 51%.

I'd simply laugh in her face and wag my finger.

She has a weakness I don't have that I can exploit - she's emotionally invested in NewJeans.

I don't even have to personally hold them hostage where I'd have to manage them myself.

She'd do it for me whether she likes me or not.

Not just Korean women's, but now with this FT coverage, the western business elite's attention as well...

In general, seems to me ifans are more skeptical of the whole Dahn world stuff (including whether it's a cult or not or how deep the connections are) and more unbothered. On the other hand, k-army seem to be taking it more seriously and organized calling for Hybe to take legal action.

Looking at how earlier many ifans had to go through a little learning curve before understanding how shamanism is a part of the culture and not something to dismiss as crazy viewing it from western eyes, having not delved into it myself, my gut is to trust the k-armys to know a little more about the background context on this one.

Come to think of it, maybe Hybe wasn't targeting knetz with the shaman mediaplay, which didn't have the intended effect in Korea, but rather ifans...

Quote from Ves

Can you remove the font color on your post? Thanks!

I don't see any problem on my end, but what steps do I take to fix?

One of the more poignant scenes in In IU's Love Wins All occurs when V wrests the weapon from IU's hands and battles the box in her stead. IU, remained close and was there to embrace him when he was beaten back and to cover up his good eye to shield him from directly witnessing their demise - even though all efforts would be futile, she never gave up on protecting V to the bitter end.

Hybe would like you to see it as IU. Their priority is protecting their artists they say. K-armys aren't buying it.

Let's sketch out a different scenario for the MV - what if Hybe not only hid behind V, but was the one that pushed him forward to fight the box? And rather than remaining close, Hybe kept a safe distance? And finally in the end, what if they even showed V being used as a human shield this time after using him as an offensive weapon in the first instance. And in an unprovoked first strike attack (where the boxes were just chillin') that didn't have to involve him no less?

In time, I-fans might come around. But even though their eyes are good, they can't see that maybe the problem isn't this box or that box, but that they might have been led to be on the wrong side of the fight.

Quote from aclassyteaparty

hybe still filed a criminal complaint against mhj. what comes of that is yet to be seen. and neither side has actually shared the full story. hybe shared select info from their perspective and mhj/adore shared selective info from their side as well. the thought was that if hybe went as far as to report her to the police they must have something. but people have trusted articles from speculators saying "hybe doesnt have enough proof" when the full extent of their proof still isn't know. hybe backed down the moment mhj started dragging lsrf and now this bts cult stuff comes out of left field so. there is definitely more to this

There could be some meat there. But it could also be posturing:

"공모만으론 처벌 어렵다"는데... 하이브는 왜 민희진을 고발했나 | 한국일보

지분구조 등 경영권 찬탈 현실성도 희박

m.hankookilbo.com

Some suggest that HYBE's legal action stems not from management issues but from an intention to undermine the internal workings of ADOR by targeting CEO Min's leadership. There are suspicions that HYBE chose to file the complaint at a local level rather than the Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency, which investigates major economic crimes, for this reason. Labor law specialist Lawyer Park Hoon analyzed, "HYBE seemed to want to regain or tighten control over CEO Min's minority shareholder rights, while CEO Min seemed to be trying to increase those rights, which seemed like an attempt to seize control."

Quote from K-PL

All the attacks on Hybe, BTS and other Hybe groups are part of the plan to damage and put pressure on Hybe.

Unfortunate that BTS had to be dragged into all this. They are being used as a key chess piece and, judging by impact, a very impactful piece on the chessboard for both sides and even for unrelated fandoms and other companies. But remember, it was initiated by Hybe, presumably to mobilize army to their side with their first leaks, like pawns to advance the game. Ironically, Hybe plays victim and now says their priority is protecting their artists. Even Ador has again asked Hybe to shut it, so there's that.

Quote from K-PL

It wont stop unless MHJ goes to jail.

If Hybe let her leave with or without NJs, do you think the attacks will stop. No way. She will do whatever it takes to make sure her girl group and boy group are #1.

Some armys here were calling for jail if I remember earlier in this thread, but its looking less likely as the other side is giving more context and more detail has come to light.

A lot of info has dropped, more enough to build narratives that could go in all sorts of directions. So what's left are accusations of emotional manipulation based on attempts at psychoanalysis and attacks on character I'm afraid. Like Seoulite, in his latest vid, ironically demonstrating this whilst making accusations of the same:

MHJ's "drunken soju talk" might not be masterful acting, but actually her personality when cornered. And an alternative explanation of what MHJ wore to the presscon was that she was in promotional mode for the comeback - you can see Minji had the same styling in concept photos. Tbf, he's not expected to know all that if he doesn't stan. He's army and has had it out for MHJ since NJ debut. Funny guy though and some of his societal insights and BTS content is solid. Strangely had me tempted to try to buy limited edition BTS stamps even though I'm not a stan:

Quote from Rarami

my man zico

"The financial power itself is different. (Small and medium-sized companies) have less environment and opportunities." “I started from a place that was not even small or medium-sized, almost from scratch,” he said, drawing attention. It was a statement acknowledging HYBE's financial power and established systems."

With that background, I hope he knows his own worth and didn't sell himself short as far as his own compensation, especially now finding out how elites roll. MHJ started her career at SM and dealt with acts like SNSD instead experiencing the nugu struggle. I doubt she'd be awestruck at Hybe's financial power and established systems, let alone be intimidated by Bang when she had dealt with LSM.

Quote from Ves

I really think the Hybe model was a bad one for her from the get go and BSH himself was very naive if he really thought this could work.

Naivete indeed. There's something ironic and frustratingly so about how things ended up this way. Many seem to be convinced that it's all about the money with these two. I'd argue that there wouldn't have been a problem if that was the case, since:

- Hybe owns 80% of ADOR, so the better MHJ does, Hybe does even better. Bang should've seen dollar signs and been happy with NJ's Billboard news. His response was telling.

- Game recognizes game. BSH knew the value MHJ could bring and felt it was worth incentivizing her with an 18% equity stake. His eye for talent was proven right as she delivered beyond expectations. And she's just getting started as the bg for starters hasn't even launched. What money saved now by clawing back her shares (marked at a low valuation no less) but losing MHJ < the money she could bring to Hybe by continuing to grow ADOR into the future. For this to make business sense, Hybe has to really believe that it can run ADOR better than MHJ.

- For her part, I think it was naive of MHJ to think Hybe would ever agree to sell its shares even if it were a sweetheart deal (ignoring mediaplay, a "friendly" takeover involving Hybe agreeing to selling some of its 80% of ADOR shares would be the only way she would gain control of ADOR were that really the plan) as imo it's ultimately not about the money to BSH either. Also, if she was less idealistic and more capitalistic, she'd have thought twice about continually poking the bear that is Hybe with her complaints, principled or not. Money > artistic integrity right? Now not only can she forget about bringing in a friendly to buy some of Hybe's shares, even her equity stake is at risk.

They both strike me as having a childlike naivete. Idealistic and stubborn. Brutally honest. Sometimes egotistical. Ok, most times. Basically creatives for whom business logic can be relegated to secondary status.

The ironic part is they are likely of the same type and probably understand each other more than you'd think. But alas, opposites attract and likes repel.

Quote from Flowercrew

I kinda brought that up earlier.

The answer given me was bec:

A) NJs was number 1 gg.

B) Ador earned heaps despite having only 1 act and being so young.

Regardless, within Hybe's family, Ador's 8% contribution in sales was still the least. It's business afterall where numbers rule.

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Yeah, to have an act like you said being so young and already profitable, let alone contributing 8% WITHOUT even starting to tour is pretty unprecedented. What happens when they do? And what happens when she launches her bg? I wonder if it would still be 8%. By law of numbers, it's easier for a smaller company that's any good to grow than a big established player that's equally good. In fact, big numbers can hinder performance. Just ask Warren Buffett who had to settle for lower % gains as his capital grew.

Also in finance as a rule, higher rates of growth also command higher multiples (of sales, earnings etc.).

Over the last four quarters, Tesla generated total revenue and earnings of $96 billion and $15 billion, respectively. Toyota’s revenue and earnings are roughly three times larger at $299 billion and $44 billion. Yet Tesla has a much higher valuation than Toyota. Toyota has a 12x earnings multiple. And Tesla, 77x. Point being, growth potential matters sometimes even more than absolute numbers.

That's why to me at least, an argument could be made that it was reasonable to renegotiate to raise the valuation of ADOR that was initially based on 13x operating profit since some time has past and she now has a track record of growth that everybody can see.

Another thing is that we've seen Bang very much personally involved in rival girl groups for some odd reason - first LSF, then ILLIT. Could just be he's a helpful guy that way...

But if he's working so earnestly the balance of power angle between the sublabels in order to maintain ultimate control in the gg space, what lengths would he go to if the slightest signs of a... let's call it an irritant... to his core interest most tied to his identity is starting to show up on the radar? Just a little blip.

Let me preface the following with something we can all agree with - the obvious incontrovertible fact and certainty that BTS will forever maintain it's position and n'er see it's % contribution fall in relation to any other group current or future. With that out of the way, I know to us it may sound preposterous, and not saying that it would ever cross his mind either, but what if Bang sees the trend and is a little (just a little) threatened by the possibility of a MHJ bg now that he's had a taste of that moment yet to come dealing with MHJ's first gg?

Quote from Jasmine_Waters

Wait, she got a free company, HYBE's money, and now the shares was personally lent by Bang PD's money?

She does not own Ador in anyway financially but still wanted Ador's valuation 30x more than what it's worth and bringing in?

And yet it was not about the money

Quote from Yinye

30x more is soooooo much money AFTER the initial investment of setting up ADOR, NJs and lending money to her personally for the first 20% even

Not really. It's not saying she wants 30x what the company is worth, but wants a valuation of 30x operating profit of the company (a way of valuing the company). Like other multiples used in corporate valutions - price to earnings (multiple of earnings), price to sales if a company isn't profitable, etc. Music labels are commonly valued on operating profit (technically EBITDA - earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization).

Lets look at a "comp". Tencent valued Universal Music Group at 32x EBITDA when it planned to purchase the first round of 10% for $3.3 billion, according to its parent company Vivendi. Some considered this high, others low. Valuation is an art, and even investment bankers don't all agree:

Vivendi raised eyebrows during its 2017 shareholder meeting by saying UMG’s value was $22 billion. The same year, Goldman Sachs put the figure at $23.5 billion. Earlier this year, JP Morgan estimated a $50 billion value. Deutsche Bank hit the nail head with $33 billion in January.

My own take is that an argument could be made for 30x - if a mature label like UMG could fetch 32x, a new label with a trajectory of rapid growth would be selling itself short if it were to comp itself to mature players who have pretty much grown into their shoes. It's like a tech startup only starting to show what it can do in terms of generating profit (you should see some of the multiples for those). NewJeans was poised for continued growth (not to mention the bg that probably won't happen atp).

And like a tech startup that recruits an industry executive with a proven track record to lead to company, rather than "lend" money that has to be paid back, they straight up give the executive equity (shares) to incentivize them. So I don't get the reason to get worked up on that front.

Anyways, good on MHJ for at least not falling for the lowball offer (though she probably had advisors this time judging by some of her prior bad business decisions). Though both could be operative, not wanting to sell yourself short doesn't necessarily imply being greedy.

More info if interested:

What’s a Music Company Worth? Comparing Tencent’s UMG Deal to Other Label Investments

Music companies are hot investments again -- but the bargains are becoming hard to find. Record labels and music publishers are reaping the benefits of a music…

www.billboard.com

Quote from ItsActuallyMe

Bang Pd just needs to step over his own ego to allow MHJ to be the winner in the public's eye. Withold from holding Ador's shareholder meeting in court, take back the police complaints, and renegotiate MHJ's contract on her terms but just add an extra clause that could prevent or penalize any management takeovers if Hybe's still scared about that. Allowing this to drag on isn't in anyones interest. Shareholders will start to complain that Hybe isn't acting in their best interest either at some point anymore, shareholders that include BTS. MHJ clearly cares about NewJeans so seeing them unable to interact with their fans as long as this continues, and suffer through this situation isn't what she wants either.

If it's needed just hold a press conference together where both sides can apologize for their past mistakes. Both sides kinda need each other to cooperate to completely clean up their images as well. It will give the public one more press conference they can enjoy as well lol.

I agree. The drama of who's to blame (and I think both aren't without blame) is entertaining but is besides the point when no one will win and more damage will be done the more this drags out.

Stuck in the middle, sensitive artists like V have a message for them:

Rainy days

I'm thinkin' 'bout you, what to say

Wish I knew how to find the way Right back to you, on rainy days like

Remember how I used to make you laugh the most

Naega ireon mal hal jagyeok eopseodo

Let me make up for all the time we lost

We can start again, open all the doors [ADOR]

Don't tell me it's over, we can start it over

Neoneun naui ne ip clover

Yeah, I can feel your touch, I remember your kiss

Geu mareun apatji and I miss you

Time to kiss and make up

Quote from Dreamer95

Yama-Chan was right, Koreans are mostly on MHJ side, for now at least. https://theqoo.net/hot/3201106575?filter_mode=normal&page=2

Yeah, according to a Korean observer, she's being billed as the "queen of Korean hip-hop" - from what she wore, to her free flowing delivery from the heart defying authority with reckless abandon. He characterized her wordplay replete with expletives as not suitable for public airwaves, but packing an emotional punch and finding resonance within the hearts of Koreans who can relate with repression, the frustrations of being in an underdog/unwinnable position, and the desire to say fuck it and let it all out.

He qualifies that his assessment sets aside the issue of whether people think it was a smart move or whether it would help her case, but that her press conference performance has garnered interest even from people who aren't into Kpop and is already shaping up to be one of the few that reach "legendary" status in the history Korean press conference. It was that novel.

Finally, he notes that opinion is more mixed among kpop fans as, on the one hand, she has pissed off a lot of fandoms with her namedropping. On the other, like a concubine who finds herself abandoned by the king, people find it understandable that her priority is not the kingdom anymore, but her children. And her love for NewJeans was found very believable.

Quote from RunOutOfIdeas

My theory is that their beef has been going on for quite some time. I think they somehow knew what she wanted to do with getting more shares or maybe at some point she used NJ as a leverage to getting more or even staying.

So, Hybe then made Illit to show her that they can have a similar group with similar concept and that they don't actually need her.They deliberately chose that style to prove their point.

Now that Illit has gotten so popular, she involved them so she can turn knetzs against them and hate them.

I saw a similar theory on reddit, but interpreted in favor of the other side:

It's utterly obvious that it's an attack on MHJ to make her resign and completely seal the products of her work at HYBE.

I'm sure the deal was for MHJ to buy out her company and own 100% shares from the beginning, that was no secret for HYBE. ILLIT's conceptual copy release has shown billboard level fruits, which is why Bang chose to strike now and chose to do it so publicly. They will investigate themselves and find her guilty, fabricating evidence if need be.

Bite the hand that feeds you? MHJ got greedy? It's the other fucking way around and they know it. HYBE can't risk losing NJ and the new boy group, they're the ones greedy for money here. If this was in any way real, it wouldn't be made public and would be dealt with behind the closed doors.

They've already taken over parts of SM and secured monopoly deals, you've seen it happen, you know what they're capable of. ADOR is a small company which they can snap in half at a moment's notice, which they did.

HYBE couldn't care less about you or me, things we've liked about NJ (which BTW all come from MHJ's vision and, more importantly, her connections and people who work exclusively with her). They want to own NJ and are ready to kill their creative vision for profit. This is where we're at. This is how beauty dies. Don't be dumb blindly siding with HYBE when it's obvious that what they just did was a public image murder.

If they get away with this, all future groups will face the same treatment, and profits will reign over integrity and creativity. Same music, same ideas, gacha-style albums every comeback. This is what you sign up for if you support HYBE in this.

This is giving me flashbacks of Fifty Fifty indeed. Originally an internal matter whose leak was initiated by the more powerful party forcing the other to be on defensive. Notable differences include Hybe being a million times more powerful than Attrakt and MHJ being a lot more brash and vocal than Siahn. At the very least, she's not going down without a fight.

We have controversy involving the biggest kpop company, an ace producer and arguably the hottest girl group in the industry. The spin and mediaplay is about to go crazy.

Personally I'm reserving judgement until more reliable evidence emerges. I'm curious about one thing though... do we know for sure if NewJeans signed a standard 7 year contract? Knowing how MHJ didn't settle with standard clauses and instead fought for some legally defined terms of independence in Ador's corporate bylaws, I wouldn't be surprised if she had NewJeans sign, say, a 2-year contract.

In which case, that's some additional leverage she might have secured.

Quote from BlackpinkHouse

Idle still retains relevancy. Biggest slept on group by I Fans, everyone forgets them when comparing Ive, LSRFM, NJ and Aespa. But Idle is third behind only Ive and NJ in Korea.

Im happiest for Miyeon. Girl probably cried herself to sleep every night watching Blackpink blow up huge in 2019-2020, while Idle seemingly treaded water. But boy oh boy good things come to those who wait. No one deserves it more.

What a baller gifts fellow ballers:

While I think this should be an exception and not the norm (even in the case for members whose potential is being held back by say, division 2, as there're no guarantees in terms of risk/return), I think it's clear that the girls under Soyeon's leadership are really putting their money where their mouth is and really have an uncompromising vision for the kind of production they're going after.

Regardless of the eventual commercial results, I do think this experience with financial investment and budgeting will be an invaluable learning experience that might be helpful in the evolution of the quality of (G)I-DLE's "self-production".

These may be the baby monsters you;re looking for

AKP bop/flop opinions again served to be a potent indicator of the opposite