Will NewJeans win SOTY or AOTY at MAMA's this year?

I think SOTY it will be either them or ive, but since it is mnet and mnetit will probably go to nj, and AOTY will be... maybe 17?

Or they will just get album of the year.

I made a thread about the impending rigging of the MAMAs a couple weeks ago. ADOR and mnet are still beefing, and given mnet's history of letting their petty squabbles with companies impact who gets what awards (see YG), I have lowered my expectations for MAMAs.

Based on the predictions, NewJeans should easily win both SOTY and AOTY, but I wouldn't be surprised if they win neither.

And if they don't, mnet and MAMA will lose any and all credibility.

For those interested in predictions:

Quote from icyruios

I mean we don't need to wait for 2023

MAMA lost credibility many years ago with other snubs they don't have any credibility to begin with to even lose it

Well they will have negative credibility then. Deep in the red without any hope of recovery. If they shaft Korea's favorite group right now, I don't think public sentiment will be on their side.

Quote from icyruios

Also, I'm not sure about the judging criteria so I'm just asking

For SOTY the gap is like 20 score difference, and ArOTY is like 8 score difference. I don't know how the judging works but if judges decide to let other groups win the score doesn't seem big enough?

Like unless there's an overwhelming what 40 points difference that judges score won't matter

That's something only someone more well-versed in crunching those numbers could answer for you.

From my naked eye, the SOTY gap seems to be massive.

AOTY is closer, but is there even a remote argument for NCT Dream over NewJeans in 2023?

This should be the year a girl group finally gets AOTY without debate, but Mnet will be petty and give it to a boy group again, I'm sure. There's juuuust enough reasonable doubt/probable cause

SOTY-New Jeans

ATOY- Seventeen, they'll release new album in October.

Album OTY-SKZ

Quote from gene0420

SOTY-New Jeans

ATOY- Seventeen, they'll release new album in October.

Album OTY-SKZ

Why skz for aloty? Svt sells more and charted better than them, right? And I don't think svt new cb will change anything. They already have 27 out of 30 for album sales. Nj will still win in digital and global point. The only way they can win if judges vote for them more.

What's stupid is that digital and album score aren't evenly distributed. Why put more weight on a metric that favors boy groups by default? It's utterly stupid. No wonder it's so hard for girl groups to get AOTY there.

I saw a newest calculation somewhere and Seven might end up at no.2 on the list. If the judges value global impact more i think Seven may have a chance for Song of the year. Its no doubt the biggest Kpop song globally this year

Quote from window2002

I saw a newest calculation somewhere and Seven might end up at no.2 on the list. If the judges value global impact more i think Seven may have a chance for Song of the year. Its no doubt the biggest Kpop song globally this year

Not nearly enough time to catch Ditto, so that's fairly improbable.

But I guess time will ultimately tell. Also, the judges don't value global impact more. You can see the percentage breakdown of scoring in my earlier post.

Global is 20%. Digital (domestic) is 40%.

Quote from YamaChwan

For those interested in predictions:

With updated numbers since Seven is now at 741M on Spotify. So Seven will now get the full 20% for Global %.

with updated korean digitals as well

the prediction is

Ditto - 52.1

I AM - 35.1

SEVEN - 32.0

Flower - 26.7

Like Crazy - 24.4

Due to the large increase in Seven's global %. It places it as #3 now (and will possibly move above I AM soon).

Quote from YamaChwan

Not nearly enough time to catch Ditto, so that's fairly improbable.

But I guess time will ultimately tell. Also, the judges don't value global impact more. You can see the percentage breakdown of scoring in my earlier post.

Global is 10%. Digital (domestic) is 20%.

Doesn't that prediction list list it is as 40% digital (ie korean digitals) and 20% global digitals for SOTY...you're looking at the Artist of the year criteria.

Quote from worldlove27

With updated numbers since Seven is now at 741M on Spotify. So Seven will now get the full 20% for Global %.

with updated korean digitals as well

the prediction is

Ditto - 52.1

I AM - 35.1

SEVEN - 32.0

Flower - 26.7

Like Crazy - 24.4

Due to the large increase in Seven's global %. It places it as #3 now (and will possibly move above I AM soon).

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It'll obviously be up to the judges ultimately, but I think Seven released too late to be a realistic challenger. Plus the global weighting is so much lower than the digital one, and no song outperformed Ditto in that category. Closest would be I Am, and it isn't that close.

Quote from worldlove27

Doesn't that prediction list list it is as 40% digital (ie korean digitals) and 20% global digitals for SOTY...you're looking at the Artist of the year criteria.

Yes. I already edited it. The revision actually irons in my point even further. There is a huge weighting difference between the two categories.

Quote from YamaChwan

Not nearly enough time to catch Ditto, so that's fairly improbable.

But I guess time will ultimately tell. Also, the judges don't value global impact more. You can see the percentage breakdown of scoring in my earlier post.

Global is 20%. Digital (domestic) is 40%.

Also Seven is pacing to probably be at around 1B if not MORE on spotify by the time MAMA happens... which is more than double Ditto which means Ditto's global would decrease to around 10 from the 14.9 it had in the august prediction while Seven will also likely increase its Korean Digital %.

With the 40% from judges being there... it's not impossible per say for Seven to get it. It'll depend on the judges

The gap is bigger than it was for IVE last year. Seventeen might sneak up to #2 with October release but it's too late to accumulate much digitals as the tracking ends in October. The sales won't matter much as it's a market share scoring so it will only increase by less than 3 to the max of 30. I don't think they can get away with it this year, NJ should win both SOTY and ArOTY.

Quote from worldlove27

With the 40% from judges being there... it's not impossible per say for Seven to get it. It'll depend on the judges

It's not impossible but MAMA isn't the type of show to throw out super low judge scores to hit songs. I can totally see Seven getting a very high judge score for the reasons you mentioend but I can just never see Ditto getting a low one.

New Jeans is not a shoe-in for any of these categories. Ditto and I AM have literally the same peaks (580k UL for I AM vs 550k UL for Ditto) and same weeks in the top 10 (27 weeks for Ditto, 25 weeks for I AM).

Why would anyone think Ditto is a guarantee win over I AM? Dont make no sense numbers wise, just cause it came out during empty house and had 4 more months to accumulate points shouldnt give it automatic win status omg.

The score differentials for both SOTY and AOTY are not wide enough to override the judges score, at least if the tables shown here are accurate. The judges getting a 40 percent say means they can easily make up the difference in points between the top 2 for SOTY and AOTY and it wouldnt even be that controversial (except to Kpop fans who dont understand math lol). I can break it down mathematically if y'all want

if judge scores are all equal then it is Ditto.

but this is MAMA we are talking about here (also ADOR has beef with MNET), The top 3 always have a chance.

Quote from trollacc

It's not impossible but MAMA isn't the type of show to throw out super low judge scores to hit songs. I can totally see Seven getting a very high judge score for the reasons you mentioend but I can just never see Ditto getting a low one.

True. As i said, it'd take a lot, but just wanted to say how saying Seven isn't a possible competitor is wrong imo. It's only going to decrease the gap between it and Ditto right now as it is gaining in korean digitals but also due to its insane increases on Spotify, its causing all the other acts to have a decrease in their Global %.

If ADOR refuses to let NewJeans attend or participate in the 2023 MAMAs, then I can absolutely see a timeline where Mnet refuses to give any of their daesangs to NewJeans. It would be hilariously stupid, but not surprising.

Also, I'm not saying other songs weren't big hits, but Ditto broke the charts. #1 on every digital chart in Korea for 3 straight months (and the #2 and #3 song were also NJ songs for the same length of time) is literally unprecedented in the history of the Korean charts.

Just look at the tracking data for the MMAs. That gap is absurd.

I'm really curious to see how all this pans out.

Quote from worldlove27

True. As i said, it'd take a lot, but just wanted to say how saying Seven isn't a possible competitor is wrong imo. It's only going to decrease the gap between it and Ditto right now as it is gaining in korean digitals but also due to its insane increases on Spotify, its causing all the other acts to have a decrease in their Global %.

Yep, judges score being 40 percent is a HUGE amount. Even if a song had 40 points from Korean digitals while every other song got literally ZERO, that song still wouldnt be a shoe in because of that judges score percentage.

Another six weeks or so are left till November, which will give Seven and I AM a little more time to close the gap even more since both are still top 10. Someone posted updated numbers showing the gap had gone from 19 points to 17 points since the chart was uploaded. Imagine if the gap closed to 15 points by the time the judges "voted" with Seven overtaking I AM for second place:

Seven 40

I AM 30

Ditto 25

That would mean Seven would win. Or alternatively:

I AM 40

Seven 30

Ditto 25

That would mean I AM would win.

We just dont know

Quote from icyruios

Now I'm lowkey maybe hoping I AM doesn't win imagine the hate they will get if they do

Would be easy to defend though, just tell the haters that Ditto had a 4 month head start to accumulate points and that the judges are taking that into account

Quote from BlackpinkHouse

Would be easy to defend though, just tell the haters that Ditto had a 4 month head start to accumulate points and that the judges are taking that into account

They didn't take that into account for Hype Boy vs. Love Dive. It won't factor into Ditto vs. I Am.

Come on, BPH. You know better.

Quote from YamaChwan

They didn't take that into account for Hype Boy vs. Love Dive. It won't factor into Ditto vs. I Am.

Come on, BPH. You know better.

lol why would it factor into Hybe Boy vs Love Dive? Love Dive was #1 for three weeks and was way bigger than Hybe Boy in 2022.

Hybe Boy peaked at #3 by the time MAMA happened, and no it wasnt blocked by Attention only lol, it was also blocked by several other songs, so much so that it couldnt even reach #2 on Melon Weekly, it was behind Pink Venom, Afterlike, Nude, Antifragile, a Zico song i believe, etc.

Hybe Boy's biggest accomplishment is its insane longevity 40-50 weeks in top 10, but that wasnt known by MAMA in Dec 2022. Love Dive was setting records at the time becoming the GG with most weeks in the top 10 before Hybe Boy busted that record in 2023.

Quote from BlackpinkHouse

lol why would it factor into Hybe Boy vs Love Dive? Love Dive was #1 for three weeks and was way bigger than Hybe Boy in 2022.

I'm using your logic

Hype Boy is the biggest song of the 4th generation, and we all know Love Dive wouldn't win daesangs over Hype Boy, if there wasn't a months long period for Love Dive to accumulate numbers.

It's the same thing you're complaining about with Ditto and I Am, brother.

Hype Boy was blocked by Attention during its first surge, and then it was blocked by Ditto and OMG during its second surge. Literally NewJeans' own songs are the only reason it didn't hit #1.

Plus:

Also, don't look now, but only two songs separate I Am and Hype Boy right now on the Melon daily chart

Monster song. Monster longevity.

Long story short. You can't be in here making a fuss about Ditto getting a "head start" on I Am, but then ignore how much of a "head start" Love Dive had on Hype Boy

Doesn't Ador and Mnet have beefs? so it's unlikely that New Jeans will attend MAMA which will lower their chance.

I totally forgot about seven. Seven will win SOTY then.

Newjeans deserve aoty and soty both i prefer omg over ditto so I hope it wins.

mama devoting 40% to "critics" will always make the winner almost unpredictable unless the nominee have the whole 60%. New Jeans may follow 2ne1's footsteps and win AOTY AND SOTY or they can win neither because of the 40% judges' vote. But hey, atleast they removed fanvotes in these categories right? And all I know, even if NJ doesn't win any daesang in MAMA, MELON better give them the 3 main daesangs

Quote from YamaChwan

It'll obviously be up to the judges ultimately, but I think Seven released too late to be a realistic challenger. Plus the global weighting is so much lower than the digital one, and no song outperformed Ditto in that category. Closest would be I Am, and it isn't that close.

It’s not. Dynamite was released one month later than seven and still swept soty at all award shows. Y’all really downplay how much the judges place emphasis on global achievements