May GG Showdown, place your bets: Aespa vs Le Sserafim (Digitals + Physicals)

Aespa is gonna win the physical war since they still have the larger fan base and has been around longer. The digital war is gonna be the interesting one really. Imo the quality of the song will be the deciding factor. Who will win in Korea? Who will win in Global? Who will be boo'd and jeered at until my throat is dry from all the boo'ing and jeering??

Stay tune on May 2 and find out!

Gidle :)

Aespa has been around longer and bigger fanbase but I think LSRFM will be good competition.

It depends on the music quality and if fans will be collecting different versions of the releases and how many there are too.

How many does Aespa have (since I don't follow them)?

LSRFM has like 10 versions of the Unforgiven (3 photo book version, 5 compact version, 2 Weverse albums).

Also I wonder if we are only measuring the first week, month, or later on - total sales for the year? Lots of factors can play into a potential sales bump or decline etc.

Physicals aespa

Digitals depends . Domestic market both , International market probably lsf

Aespa for Physical since they have huge Chinese fanbase

Lesserfirm for digitals since I will be streaming hard

Based on track record, initially

Aespa for physicals

LSF for digital

Aespa have a 1.5 year head start establishing their fandom, so unless LSF's songs on the album are on the epic level, LSF are unlikely to have more physical sales even in the longer term.

If Aespa's song is Korean public friendly, they could beat LSF in the Korean charts. Note that Aespa's best song digitally last year was #8 vs #2 in 2001 for Next Level.

In these match-ups, there is less downside for the newer group. For example when gidle beat LSF while they were promoting last year, no one blinked. However gidle needs to be careful, if they are demolished by either LSF or Aespa, ala NJ did to Ive, they drop in standing a lot.

G-IDLE is kind of in the same race here, at least for digital.

The digital is so hard to call, it really depends on the song. If I had to put money on 1 of the 3 I would put it on LSFM for digital charting.

Out of these 3 they are the only group coming off a big hit previous release with longevity. You can argue NXDE got PAKs but I would argue this was mainly due to hype after Tomboy, it fell off real fast unlike Antifragile. Groups that had a smash hit previous release tend to do absurd numbers on charts the next comeback, eg. Tomboy -> NXDE and Love Dive -> After Like.

It really could go to any of the 3 though. Crazy competitive period between these 3 releasing within a few week period. I AM is also currently heading towards 600k UL and might just sit there at #1 no matter what comes out. That will also be interesting, seeing if a new release can dethrone I AM or not.

For physical you would have to expect aespa based on previous sales but it's quite clear LSFM had a lot of growth and that quick 1M preorder is quite something. I wouldn't be surprised if LSFM ends up having the highest physical sales too.

Digitals: G-Idle

Physical: Aespa

Aespa will win in physicals but digitals are a little up in the air. Lesserafim and Aespa are pretty evenly matched but the lesserafim have the benefit of recency bias. I guess it just depends on which release the public likes more.

Digitals can be for anyone. Nothing is set in stone.

I guess physicals will be aespa but idk if LSFM grew overnight 🫡 that happens a lot these days as well 🫡🫡

Aespa for physicals

Aespa in physicals and le Sserafim in digitals

H2H on music shows will be interesting

Quote from SooYoung

Physical will be Aespa

and digital i don't know,

tbh Girls peaked in the top 10 of Melon so it didn't flop even if it didn't do the same performance than Savage or Next level

and in the other hand LSRF only true hit is Antifragile, it's not like they had another comeback after this to cement themselves as some kind of digital monster

so digital is pretty even for both groups, it will depend on which song the public like the most

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Fearless has 500M digital points. So yeah they have two hits.

Physical aespa for sure, their chinese fandom is growing 3x with every CB. Digital Le Sserafim looks more advantageous because both Fearless and Antifragile were hits. In digital, it depends on the song. If Aespa returns with a public friendly song, they can surpass everyone in digital. I can't predict Le Sserafim physical sales either. We should not underestimate Gidle too. I would like one of the 3 to be successful. I like the music of Aespa, Le Sserafim and Gidle more than Ive or Newjeans.