If the BTS exemption gets granted, will it do well against the torrent of 4th Gen acts?

Napoleon Bonaparte's best known battle in the English speaking world is the Battle of Waterloo, which was a defeat.

It happened in the so called The Hundred Days, when he had attempted a comeback.

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I do think that this time the govt is actually doing something so the exemption will be granted. The younger male population don' t have the votes so they won't matter.

However,

what has happened since June 15 is the proliferation of 4th Gen acts.

3rd Gen, BlackPink and Twice, are already showing signs of moving on to the international stages, and aespa, NewJeans and now IVE have firmly established themselves in the higher echelon of KPop.

BTS will garner a strong support from the Armys who thought they would be gone for a while, but the fans of various 4th Gen acts will have some different opinion.

The 4th Gen acts will probably want to move on to something else, and their fans will not stay still.

When someone relinquishes power, it is not easy to get it back because new dynamics and new powers are created.

The 4th Gen will probably ask IU to lead them, which she is likely to do so. She is the last singer on earth who did not acknowledge the superiority of BTS, and she will want to maintain her control over the future gens of KPop. Drama, movie or whatever, she will drop everything and will throw a digital single on the day BTS will do its release, and if her song beats BTS's release in Melon, the 4th Gen wins. IU becomes like Ferdinand Foch, who became the Chief Commander of the entire Entente force in the last days of World War I when the Germans threatened Paris. The US commander John Pershing very reluctantly agreed to give the command of the US Army to the French Marshal; I think it is the only time a US force was commanded by a leader from another country. For his troubles, Foch was buried next to Napoleon in the Invalides. Since IU is seen as the only person who has a credible shot of beating BTS, all the companies will give up their prides and will ask the former owner of Edam Entertainment to lead them.

What will happen if IU and the 4th Gen beats BTS? I will leave that question to the readers.

Quote from 134340Moonchild

The 4th gen should worry about the 5th gen. BTS will be fine whether they enlist or not.

5Gen won't be ready till around 2027-28 so the 4Gen has a long time to not think about it

Quote from bbgc

Serious things first,

If the exemption is granted and BTS actually returns to doing new music as a group, they will still hands down beat everyone everywhere. Except for IU/Bigbang releasing in close proximity with them, then those 2 will keep the Korean Digitals ALONE, but otherwise BTS will wipe the floor with the rest.

The return from faux-hiatus will not change that.

However their solos or other activities, I don't think will have such an assurance. Yes J-Hope is not the most popular of the 7, still he did not out chart LYW or Be'O on the charts and JiTB songs don't seem have anything exceptional going on for them on K-charts. JiTB is definitely a success, but in the relative scale of BTS' own success or that of LYW/Be'O it is lesser in comparison. I think Jungkook/V may do better, but still the pattern will remain, and they won't be as dominant as BTS the group.

As to your history,

the faux-hiatus of BTS was voluntary, they weren't defeated like Napoleon was at Leipzig, to have this as comparable situation.

But if you insist on casting BTS as Napoleon, then IU is Switzerland - unconquered, but not opponents either, so Napoleon did the mediation and the Swiss continued as a republic undisturbed by the upheavals around them and making a lot of money- clocks and chocolates.

As long as nobody messes with the chocolates.. she is good.

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Armys would still remember when IU released autumn morning without warning to defeat BTS' DNA in the Melon chart back in Sep 2017. It is BTS' last defeat. A similar event would be the recent victory of New Jeans over BlackPink at Melon; although BP overshadowed NJ in everywhere else, NJ was declared the winner at least in Korea.

The whole shadow of the military service being gone will probably lead to a joint effort, now they have learned that the sum is much bigger than the parts. JHope even went to pay his respects to IU because Hybe would not spend the effort to help him. I think Hobi also went to see Zico.

IU did fight SNSD and EXO before for supremacy, and although she will probably be preoccupied with a drama or so when BTS returns, she will have to fight her own decay so I expect her to throw something in a fly just to spite it like she spited aespa for no apparent reason when she dropped Strawberry Moon last year.

Quote from bbgc

BTS weren't that big a deal in 2017, rising fast but not yet the dominant act.

Besides Bighit should have anticipated that IU would release something on her debut anniversary.

Only a conspiracy theorist would read that as intentional attack on BTS. And same with Strawberry moon and Aespa.

Are you a war veteran suffering from PTSD, to always think every release is some HIMARS attack or bombardment against the enemy?

K-pop industry hardly works that way, look at Aug 2022 - everyone knew that many heavy hitters are releasing that month, that did not stop others from doing their own comebacks.. Billlie just release today.

So stop playing war games.

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It was a completely surprise attack by IU, long story short, the Kim Kwangsuk dispute robbed IU her putative title,so she released Autumn Morning in a hurry on the day DNA was to be released. AM shut DNA from getting BTS' first #1 in Melon. Big Hit had anticipated that IU would wait till Friday , Sep 18, and did not anticipate a pre-release on Monday, Sep 14.

I see KPop as a war, more like the more traditional types of war played by kings in the old days.

Billie's comeback appears to be a desire to coattail to the successes of the bigger acts. Which did lead to increased sales compared to the last album.

Quote from bbgc

If at all, you could argue that it was BTS trying challenge IU, when they chose to release knowing that Sep 18th was IU's anniversary.

Flower Bookmark 2 had been announced to be released on Sep 22

So BTS released its song on Sep 18

But Lee Jieun pre-empted BTS on the morning of that day

Quote from nevermindmejin

You forget that for true ARMYs, the most important thing for us is to get as many people aware of BTS and their music. That was our driving force. The record breaking and what nots just comes naturally. Now that BTS has cemented their legacy and i can safely say we have reached our original objective, the rest is secondary. I know some ARMYs are still crazy about getting number 1 in every single thing but I hope they will see the bigger picture soon. Micheal Jackson, Adele, Queens, the Beatles etc they all never have to be number 1 in everything for people to still say they are legends. Why is it so different for BTS?

If 4th gen reach great heights then congrats. It’s easier to fly higher when glass ceilings have been broken by others.

Because the domination of Beatles, MJ and Adele (I don't know about Queen) lasted quite a while. Beatles dominated for 1964-1970, MJ for at least 1987-1992 or so, and Adele for around 2011-2016.

While BTS' domination only lasted from around 2020 to June 2022, which leaves a lot to be desired, and it is not because of their own will but the fickleness of the K-O-R-E-A-N-S , specifically younger K-O-R-E-A-N men who want them to be dragged to the military.

Quote from nevermindmejin

Hmm BTS reign started earlier in Korea, I’d say 2017, because Queen Spring Day is still alive and kicking to this very day on Melon. Even in 2017 they won Musician of the year at the KMA (an award show where idols rarely get any acknowledgements). In 2018 Korea already honoured them the Order of Cultural Merit (based on their global achievements and reach) making them the youngest recipients ever.

If you’re talking globally, back in 2019 BTS already doing sold out stadium tour (addition of their earlier tour) - Wembley, Rose Bowl, Met Life, Allianz Parque, Sao Paulo, Stade de France, two stadiums in Japan, King Fahd International Stadium SA.

BTS has started their global domination way before 2020.

OK, I will concede and say BTS dominated the world from 2019. Still 3 years is a short reign.

Beatles had to deal with Rolling Stones and David Bowie, MJ had to deal with Madonna and Prince, and Adele had to deal with, I believe, Ed Sheeran.

BTS dealt every single challenge thrown to them, which is legendary.