Groups having first wins near the end of their contracts - a hard situation for the companies

Pentagon (Cube) had its first #1 5 years and change after debut.

Astro had its first #1 more than 5 years after debut.

That kind of situation is quite rare. (Technically Nuest has the record for the longest time it had from debut to the first #1 in a major station, but its history has a huge gap. For all practical purposes Nuest re-debuted in 2017 so its history prior to it is not counted.)

Astro's fortune entirely depends upon whether Chaeunwoo is willing to continue his idol life, nothing else. Myungjun of Astro knows that so he has already released a trot song with Kim Taeyeon (not SNSD; the child trot singer) to build his post-idol career.

However Pentagon would be different.

BTOB is a mature group, Gidle kind of imploded after the Soojin fiasco, Lightsum going nowhere so Cube will need Pentagon.

However, Pentagon has some members who are quite old.

It is probable that cube won't make too much money from the re-signing, with more to the members. The members would know that they are in the driver's seat,

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As there are more acts and more competition, there would be some late bloomers whose late rise is unlikely to do much good for the companies.

OhMyGirl rose on its 4th year , with already half of its contract having passed. Either 1 o 2 members have not re-signed while the end of contract is at April 1. A comeback, probably the last with the 7 members (one already left a long time ago), will happen in March.

At least WM used it to sell the company to RBW.

Astro and Pentagon present interesting cases ; what to do with late blooming groups who might not make too much money for the company in the second round of contract but are nevertheless needed to maintain the company's reputation.

In my opinion, the deadline of an act which becomes a net profit for the companies lies on around the end of the full 4th year; from then, whatever the act is going to earn would be net sink. In other worlds, the companies are not going to get too much benefit for an act which only became somewhat prominent after the magic 4th anniversary was over.

Late bloomers, whose successes might be good enough for the members to pat themselves at the back,would still not make the company too much money which means very little support from the top. In addition, because of difficulties of distributing the profits, usually on the final year of a contract there is no promotion unless a majority of members had re-signed.

It might be cruel for the acts which only found their place under the sun after 4-5 years of contract, but at that point companies won't recoup their investments on such act and any late blooming success , while making good stories, won't really change a company's fortune.

Quote from 7hr43q2o32

wouldn't late success be a plus for members?

gives them more negotiating leverage during renewal

and their lack of earlier success may prevent the firm from forming a replacement group

Something to pat their backs, but companies , when they renew, have to think about their future values and if they did not become popular in their first years their fanbase would be kinda smaller.

Quote from BlackpinkHouse

Yep, the harsh business realities of Kpop. Kpop is just a tough business all around. The idols work themselves to the bone in their first few years, then by the time they get to truly enjoy the fruits of their labor and get to relax a bit, they are already nearing the end of their contracts. OMG is a perfect example of this. Their breakthrough happened in 2020, five years after debut, but they've only had one comeback since then as members have taken hiatuses due to ailments or have done other activities.

Twice is going to be a very interesting story this year. Twice may have peaked digitally in 2018 in Korea, but their physicals are still going through the roof, and their international popularity continues to skyrocket. Their tours will sell out everywhere. They are still capable of being huge moneymakers.

But the second contract means more of that money will go to the members and less to the company. And Twice might be at a point where at least some members dont wanna do so many comebacks, or may want to branch out and do other things, or just retire from entertainment life for good. So what will JYPE do? Is it worth it for JYPE to offer a contract extension if the members get more of the profits and at the same time don't want to put out as many albums? Plus how will album sales and other revenue streams be impacted if one or members leave for good?

5 or 6 members have re-signed in OMG, meaning at least 1 member will leave (either Jiho or Mimi).

It is inevitable that after 7 years or so some of them would have other priorities and would want to pursue it when their image as an idol is still fresh.

Twice has members from 3 nationalities. I don't see Jungyeon continuing. At least one of the 3 Japanese (incl 1 Japanese American) will probably leave. Don't know about Tzuyu.

JYP does things in his own way so if they don't like it they will leave.

Quote from bartkun

this is always kind of double-edged sword

CEO's and directors in many companies are probably caught in those situations because there are two ways of things that might happen

Group get 1st win late, but they will continue to grow, and after news of renewal they will create additional buzz in media and have even more successful comeback.

Or the other situation group got 1st win, but later struggles to maintain even that 'level' sales go down instead of up

in that case if company renewed deal then CEO is mad at himself because it's like shooting yourself in feet, and slowly bleeding out.

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OMG is the first example. GF is the second example (although HYBE did use it as an experiment to run girl groups for itself.)

Acts like Astro and Pentagon benefitted from the fact that general KPop sales increased. However, other acts who do stunts like that can't expect their successes to continue.

astro might continue, given how much Chaeunwoo wants to continue to do idol stuff and the members accepting his share would be bigger than the share of the rest combined. Pentagon will renew since Gidle has been hurt too much from the bullying scandal.

However, in general, gaining popular in the later part of contract would not be enough for the act to pay the debt incurred on training and early promotion stages, while giving the companies less incentive to honor their contributions.

Quote from 7hr43q2o32

they're already succeeding - that's the premise of this thread

firms can now expect more money in the future if the artists stay

this increases the value of the artists

artists thus have a stronger bargaining position during contract renewal

hope that clears up the thought process

To what degree is the key point

Let's say a late bloomer has sold 100,000 albums

When they re-sign, say their share is 4-6 (6 to the company) but now it is 7-3 (7 for the artist - such kind of arrangement is the standard since the training cost has been removed from the equation).

The group has to sell 200,000 albums now to make the company the same kind of money

Meanwhile, let's say it develops a new group, which sells , say, 40,000 in the initial year

The company recoups 60%, or for 24,000, from the new group's promotion while the mature older group would be harder to expand its existing fanbase so it still sells 100,000 the next promo

So the company makes 30,000 from the late bloomer

Given the potential of the new act, and how short staffed the company might be, it might be just less pain for the company to release the existing act and concentrate on the new act

Quote from icyruios

You forgot to say 'and I think many groups have very late last wins it is because the senior singer is constantly competition with them on the charts'

At least, on ONF's case, that is true.

Quote from bbgc

It is all speculative. It is not necessary that the contract renewal terms need to be more favourable to the idols.

As the maxim goes "In life, you don't get what you deserve, but what you negotiate".

Not all cases are the same, for example, Bigbang gave massive hits to YG more than 7 years apart. Will Brave Brothers give up on Brave Girls?

JYPE generally has been good, even if idols leave JYPE, the relationship is maintained and they cooperate.

More than anything it is idol burnout and then generally the constant seeking of new-younger trend in Kpop.

Very few break that narrative and reinvent themselves. Your Senior Singer for example, has mastered that.

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Senior Singer was the only singer in her dept so could negotiate her own terms

Generally, bigger companies have more leeway on this but then it is rare for bigger company acts to rise slower. Usually they all break out within 2 years.

Late bloomers tend to come from smaller companies who take longer to build a viable fanbase and then promote for a while till they hit it.

In these companies the dilemma hits. They would be torn between having to carry the late bloomer, who may not repeat its performance in 2 or 3 years (usually the renewals are for 4 years), and they don't have the resources to maintain more than 2 or 3 acts at one time.

However, it is possible they may not have an act ready to replace the existing late bloomer. If that is the case the existing members will and get a very favorable position for themselves.

And, shown even in Mamamoo where Wheein left, it is probable some members will leave , if they saw a better opportunity elsewhere, and the company has to reassess the situation to carry the other members

Quote from quarkie

They've always been semi-popular in Korea. Cha Eunwoo literally worked his ass off to promote Astro any time he was booked in a solo gig. They got bigger on the international market with the kpop boom and True Beauty.

The fact that they didn't actually promote in Korea in 2018 made a lot of people assume they had flopped, but it was a company issue not a group issue.

About Astro, Chaeunwoo's opinion , more than everything else, will determine its re-signing

Fantagio will do everything to try to make him re-sign

Whether it wants to do the same for the others is another question