Posts by Disevidence

Quote from Karl-III

The fact that the group is currently in a decline does not make them not a top group of the 4th generation. Just look at the success of Wannabe and Dalla Dalla, which is already enough to consider them a top group. Their Performance Video has 130 million views, and Dance practice 96 million views, just unrealistic figures.

By that logic Brave Girls are a top 3rd gen group, Momoland a top 3rd gen group, Everglow a top 4th gen group, and Weeekly a top 4th gen group, if you're saying there's 1-2 songs where they have very high metrics in.

Also, dance practice at 96 isn't unrealistic, (G)I-DLE have a dance practice video at 107 million.

Quote from ThePhantomThief

Add to that the fact that Natyy travels on a Thai passport, which isn't a particularly "powerful" passport.

Yeah. For (G)I-DLE, there's been a few instances of Yuqi (with a Chinese Passport) having to be delayed a bit due to Visa issues, Lucky for Idle it was returning to Korea (via Mexico I think) but certain passports are trickier.

Certainly very possible to have some forms overlooked thinking it's uniform when it may not be for certain countries.

Trolls in here trying to troll about low ticket sales are just smooth brained. Like this dude "Purnhub" saying obviously because of ticket sales, clearly just a mouth breathing troglodyte.

It's possible to actually get caught up on bureaucratic stuff by accident.

Let's say you are coming to Australia to perform a pop concert.

You think you need Visa Subclass 400 (Temporary Short Stay Entertainment Work). So you do the paperwork for it, get it.

Get to the border, they ask reason for the stay. "Performing a concert".

No - that's actually Visa Subclass 408, with slightly different requirements. Visa gets rejected and you have to re-apply for a 408. Happens fairly often. There are experts to help with this stuff, but it's still possible to get tripped up. Especially with a smaller label with not as many professional staff, nor that Canada is widely visited in the Kpop touring industry.

So whilst not knowing the details, considering how much rarer it is for kpop accts to go to Canada, it's entirely possible they got tripped up in paperwork, thought it was all in order, only to be found out they'd made some bureaucratic mistake and it caused a delay. The fact they're going there a few days later kind of also points to that fact.

Like Itzy didn't even dominate in their "heyday".

In 2019-2021 they had Iz*one and (G)I-DLE keeping them honest. Idle were a shade behind on album sales, and Izone beat them handily. Idle and Izone both had better charting songs in 2020 and 2021.

It all comes down to big 3 stans (at the time) not knowing about anything outside their big 3 bubble. Yes Wannabe was the biggest song of the "trio", but by 2020 it was still an even playing field amongst the I trilogy.

Hagiography and complete rewriting of history because they're unhappy about the decline, so they put on rose tinted glasses.

Quote from vzal

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Just came across this tweet and I knew I had to ask this cuz wdym Itzy dominated FOUR years?? In what world

Dumdi Dumdi outcharted both of Itzy's songs in 2020 in Korea.

How the hell is that itzy 'dominating'.

Reading the other replies after your ping, I see it took near the end of page 2 for people to mention China.

Ignorance of many of this board continues to astound me, day in, day out.

Quote from Yama-Chan

Disevidence

I know you're still lurking around. As the most numbers savvy GIDLE stan here, I hope you can weigh in.

Everyone's forgetting China.

Yes LSF have spotify, but i'd argue that's a bit boosted by extensive playlisting and spotify discovery, so it's hard to gauge the actual level, but nonetheless it's there. They're ahead.

However, China has a massive music market and Idle absolutely destroy there. Demolish them. To a much greater degree then even the spotify lead. Then you have Europe with a good idle fanbase.

People always use Spotify but it doesn't even have a marketshare in half the fucking countries in the world, and then go "international" like morons.

LSF are ahead in Japan to a big degree (idle are small in Japan, no 2 ways about that one), have a decent lead on the spotify countries (Mostly USA/CAN and the latin countries).

Idle are just as much ahead in China and Europe, but also have the trump card of being far more popular in the hometown of Korea

So advantage Idle (however, despite that, I will concede it's getting closer then it once was, Idle are slowing a bit in China and obv dropped a bit in Spotify last comeback).

Quote from selfmate

you are viewing the success or lack of success in hindsight

hindsight is 2020

Of course it is. But have you ever heard the phrase "those that ignore history are doomed to repeat it".

I can use the success and "pre-success" endeavours of the groups to ascertain whether KIOF, if given their PAK song, will flash in the pan or maintain the success. And yes, some of it will obviously matter about followup songs.

But given their footing, the way they are marketed and how they are growing their profile, even without that national hit song, i can easily understand the OP's designation that they will ascend upon getting that song.

I remember people saying the exact same thing about Idle in 2020. Literally the same arguments, both for - Idle need one massive song to really get into the top tier, and people like yourself going "oh we've no idea it could be anyone".

Lo and Behold Idle got their massive hit and have stayed in the top tier since.

Quote from selfmate

even Gidle in their recent comebacks have had their TT perform slightly less than before now - Mamamoo even more so (I'm not familar with Mamamoo's heyday but when was the last time they had a hit song) - all good things must come to an end the question is whether it's after numerous hits or one

Gidle are now approaching 7 years old, have had 3 PAK songs in 3 separate calendar years, and are possibly going to just get clipped for a Daesang by a massive hit by Aespa.

If that's still not top tier i've no idea what to tell you mate seriously.

Yes MMM have dropped off but they're now 10 years of age, and focusing on solo activity. Infact, the literal fact that 4 people from a mid-tier label can all maintain lucrative and reasonably good solo careers IS the evidence of how they've achieved lasting success.

I'm not immune to your arguments that you can't know the future, but to be frank if there's any current group that's like MMM and (G)I-DLE, it's far and away KIOF. And that bodes well for their future.

Quote from selfmate

but there's nothing to specify whether a group gets a one hit wonder vs continued success...

Of course there is.

Groups like Mamamoo and (G)I-DLE, who broke out of their mid tier or under labels, were able to sustain success due to many factors, but the least is the varied appeal of a tight knit group, and generally releasing songs that were varied but at the same time were the essence of their own "sound" or idea. It's of no co-incidence that each of them also had at least some level of creative control, and both had been building up with strong fanbase of women. But more importantly, before their big big hit songs, they'd had a string or a run of modest or growing hits.

Groups that peaked and dropped, as the OP uses, Momoland and Brave Girls, had big hit songs, but lacked a certain je ne sais quoi to continue success, but also major mis-steps in follow up songs, momoland basically releasing the same songs 3 times in a row, brave girls being given very poor followups, and general mismanagement. Also they relied on producer-created labels whose moment was passed.

The last time a group came from virtually nugu to maintain success was 10 years ago - EXID. The landscape has changed drastically since then.

KioF have followed the former's path. They've had well received songs and are growing in recognition and fandom. That means they are well primed to have a strong fan support but also staying in the public eye if they have a breakthrough, much like Mamamoo and (G)I-DLE.

So yeah, there's very much a difference.

Easy to tell the people who never listen to anything outside the big 3 (or 4 now).

They don't care about charting because success is practically guaranteed by the label. They'll get fandoms and the full 7 year run and most likely chart anyway, because simply of the label they are in. It's basically the white privilege equivalent of the kpop world, not having to be worried about charting.

If you are a fan of a non big label group, like the OP was, like I am, you know how much a good chart performance can lock in or ensure your group gets timely comebacks, CFs, shows, income, and all the trappings that come with being successful. Things that weren't guaranteed, that weren't pre-ordained because of their visuals and label alone.

You don't have to obsess or meticulously track them, but caring a little about how they go chart wise is important, because the number 1 way i can be confident my ultimate group (Idle) can continue to do what they do, free of interference, is that they continue to chart. I-dle got their first melon number 1 with Tomboy and Soyeon went from being the unofficial EP, having to have every song judged by Cube, to being the official EP with far more latitude on song selection.

So yeah, Korean charting (and success) is important. If you say it isn't, well enjoy your blissful privileged ignorance, I guess.

Right now -

Overall KIOF.

2nd a bit behind, mainly thanks to locked on youtube streaming, is Babymonster.

Illit's 3rd because whilst they have a hit song, it appears to mostly be a one-hit wonder type of song and not group popularity.

However it's inverse for the likelihood to be the most popular group long term.

Illit come from Hybe, and eventually will just keep spamming spotify discovery/playlisting their way into a winning position in a fake it till you make it scenario. I think long term they have a good shot at being the most popular

Babymonster for some extent do that too (also with the massive ad spam on YT), but they have a far less competent producing team behind them. 2nd in popularity long term

KIOF have been the most impressive personally, but they're from a nugu label, and they're going to struggle like early (G)I-DLE did, until you lock in that fandom, you're at the whims of your songs hitting the GP. They'll need a Queendom 1 like event to lock in a fandom. It's more likely they'll subside in popularity and GP as time goes on.

That said,, the start of 5th gen is rough compared to the start of 4th gen. 4th Gen had I-dle, Itzy, and Iz*one all getting multiple top songs (each having their first 3 all hit top 20) in melon and in Korea, 5th gen has struggled much more in Korea in comparison.

Quote from Owned_by_Irene

so I don’t believe all its success is simply organic.

The cycle of purity tests is reaching peak nonsense.

APT is a song pushed by labels, and some playlisting, and a big name collab. So no, not "simply organic". But at the same time, it's a catchy song that has also clearly HIT, and hit hard, and therefore it's mega successful despite getting a bit of a headstart. Both things can be true.

Worldwide, or near monoculture songs that are "simply organic" are almost impossible to get. You're talking about something like Gotye from 10 odd years ago. Maybe the closest you have in modern times is Roan Chappell. It's an incredibly rare feat for an artist to hit number 1 without some sort of push or big spend on them. This is obviously not one of them, and no-one sane on earth is pretending it's some pure organic success, and if you find (insane) people that are, i'll sell them a bridge.

A big kpop artist collabing with a big name is never going to be purely organic, but it's still a big hit because it's a catchy song people apparently seem to enjoy alot.

You people continue to remain fucking exhausting.

They sent LSF against Idle coming off Tomboy back in 2022. Both Antifragile and Nxde had the same comeback day.

It's kind of weird they've done it twice now for their group's sophomore effort.

I dunno, just seems like that's their modus operandi.

Where to start. I can write a whole post but i'll keep it short.

Ryan Jhun sucks. He has far more misses then hits, and half his IVE work is being a facilitating producer then actually being the person making the song. It's well understood in production circles what he does (he's not alone either).

Itzy's vocals are a problem, but the main issue is their vocal direction is terrible. Watch that video from a comeback or two ago of JYP trying to direct them during recording. He sucked at it. That video, and that was the parts they chose to share, made me understand far better how abysmal the vocal direction is in JYP and explains much of their problems with all their girl groups.

Itzy haven't changed their sound much, but it's not fresh anymore, so they need to be coming up with quality songs to continue to captivate interest, particularly so as the market has generally moved on from from teen crush of 2019-2020. People point out all the new groups like NJ etc debuting, and their half right - those groups didn't necessarily crowd out Itzy per se, but they heralded the shifting market to which JYP has not adapted at all. And the quality has NOT been there to rely on their 'sound" to carry them through a shifting market.

There is no hate train on Itzy, at least no more then any other group gets. They've just not landed with the music, and it's now the 4th time when people have been trying to very pointedly say 'the music is not landing' and people put their heads in the sand and try to convince themselves it's some nebulous external force affecting itzy. It's completely the fault of JYP and no-one else. It sucks, and I know you don't want to deal with the truth, as Itzy themselves don't necessarily have the tools to dig themselves out of the hole unlike groups like SKZ and Day6 who can control their own discographies, but that's the truth.

Quote from catzi

If you bothered to take a look at the number other top ggs that debuted around the same time did initially compared to Ive you would know. Out of the top ggs they went from making the least impressive numbers to the biggest (certified by ifpi chart) in a steady growth. Also,if you want to insist on izone privilege as if that's the main reason ive are best sellers you do you. It's still a fact that said ex-izone members are much bigger and popular names after debuting in ive.

I never doubted that Ive are not bigger then they were in Izone days.

I disputed the 'rags'. They started on a very, very significant leg up. Rags are stories like Mamamoo, (G)I-DLE, where they sell almost nothing the first album and grow from there to get to the top.

Izone's debut first day sales are higher then some entire groups comeback sales (Purple Kiss, Lightsum). Those are rags.

Trying to contoct some faux underground story just makes you seem desperate.

Quote from killthisfenty

It seems like you’re having a meltdown because I said spicy overtook queencard.

No. Spicy has overtaken Queencard right now. It's literally above it in the charts. Why would that cause a meltdown?

My issue is with you. I don't care really if you think Spicy was the bigger hit or not, or any real issue. I don't really care if it's a bigger hit or not, it's not really that critical.

It's not some tribalism - it's just you outright. Other contributors contribute trying to be as objective as they can, provide real numbers, insights into different things, and all you do is blather on with staid twitter-like opinions, nothing but hot air with no analysis, no insight, absolutely no literacy to anything. You just spam your takes about how your faves are better whilst other people carry the actual data on this thread.

You're just a buffoon who constantly just blathers on crap. Either start providing numbers or go peddle your slop elsewhere.

Simple Truth is, QC and Kitsch are very close in numbers, and their a step above Spicy for an entire year.

Spicy has now overtaken them mainly due to the Halo effect of Aespa having a strong song -

Queencard in Blue, Spicy in Red, Kitch in Yellow.

The imputation that somehow Spicy matches those 2 for 'hit status' because at day 365 it had a bit of a jump up the ULS is just borderline ridiculous. It's not even about Spicy anyway. It coincides with the big Aespa push and release for Supernova.

The numbers don't lie, and the graph clearly shows.

If Klaxon pops off next week then I expect QC will get a bit of a bump too - it won't be about Queencard at all, it'll be about Idle.

This thread blows because whilst some people like MassiveKpopfan generally are strong, so many people who have no idea what they're talking about, particularly users like Killthisfenty who has lived in this thread for 2 years but still shows no signs of learning even the slightest bit about numbers and just generally providing stupid, one eyed takes detached from reality.

Quote from MassiveKpopFan

Where it's charting now does matter.

Within reason. No-ones gonna say a random LYW b-side is a bigger hit then some of the biggest Kpop songs of 2022 and 2023 because it lasted longer in Melon 100.

Quote from MassiveKpopFan

However, now that NewJeans is slightly above aespa in terms of overall sales, aespa's average changes from 3.5 to 3.75 and NJ's average changes from 1.5 to 1.25. effectively, tying aespa with LSFM and NJ gets even further ahead of GIDLE.

Watch out - they'll come at you sideways for dare suggesting Idle is above Aespa or LSF.

I also thing Spotify should not longer be used as a metric, but that's my personal take. It's too fudged with playlisting and spotify discovery these days.

I actually don't hate Youtube Music global as a ranking (the ad-free charts).

Quote from catzi

Ive is the most organic of the list. From rags to riches

How is debuting with 56k sales and having 2 very famous ex-izone members "rags".