I'd like for Purple Kiss to get it but I don't think they will.
guys anyone who will be debuting in august/september
especially with digital single or something like that will be out of competition
I've already pointed it out recently:
for example, MAMA (Mnet Asian Music Awards) is usually on the first week of December, which means they are announcing nominated groups much earlier in late october/early november.
last edition Weeekly won before Secret Number
both groups debuted much earlier in year.
Also both aespa and STAYC weren't even nominated in last year which means they will be this year and they will have big advantage of debuting in late 2020 - much more releases, already bigger fanbase, charting, etc.
it's kind of sealed, Purple K!SS can be dark horse but I don't believe any of ygngg, hybe ngg, or lightsum could do more than "being" nominated and...
what last year show us Secret Number had big advantage in fan voting yet still they lost because Weeekly got judges votes + sales.
I don't think YGNGG or hngg will enter, it'll be like aespa and Stayc last year where they missed the cut off dates to some awards, hence why they only won few. I think both groups will debut later half of this year, as they know competition is already fierce and 2020 rookies have ruled 2021 so far. I can see this exact thing happening in 2022 with new groups super talented too
they are beating every other GG in every metric
except in the metric of music that makes sense 
It depends. On their debut song Black Mamba by Aespa charter higher than StayC and their debut So Bad. But StayC's come back ASAP charter higher than Black Mamba. Numbers aren't officially out yet for Next Level but I do think they will do better than their debut song and "think" but don't know that it will be higher than ASAP. There is still time for each of the groups to release a third song between now and October when the usual cutoff date happens for most of the major awards. Both groups have risen in the charts from their Debut and so their third will hopefully also be more loved as well.
My Guess Aespa #1, StayC close second.
My preference is StayC...
Current list of nominations, Aespa, StayC, Purple Kiss (I think they need 10K+ album sales or to chart digitally)
Of course things can change when new GG's appear. *Also note that Purple Kiss Album sales were not that far behind StayC on their debut song so it is still possible for them as well.
STAYC are selling amazingly well considering they came from an unknown company (although I suppose BEP is so well known people were no doubt keeping an eye on his group).
That said music wise I don't think any of this years rookies have produced something really killer, I thought last years crop were more impressive, Weekly, Secret Number, Woo!Ah.
Even though AESPA have the SM advantage I think they have followed up with an excellent song in Next Level and would be worthy winners unless someone else debuts to take the crown. They won't win it but I think it's worth keeping an eye on TRI.BE and Hot Issue both debuted with good tracks.
EDIT : Forgot to mention Purple Kiss who I watch as they are really superb vocalists but wasn't that much into their debut, it was ok reminded me of G-IDLE.
That said music wise I don't think any of this years rookies have produced something really killer, I thought last years crop were more impressive, Weekly, Secret Number, Woo!Ah.
Woo!ah! is having a comeback next week, show them some love. 
Woo!ah! is having a comeback next week, show them some love.
Bad Girl was a really great song, deserved success but typical of smaller companies struggling with a great product. The song, the choreo, the styling was totally on point.
I Don't Miss U is one of the best B-Sides I've ever heard, I think their company NV is really good gave them an MV for that as well. Also that kind of step choreo for this song with the members moving across in time was so cool and memorable.
Bad Girl was a really great song, deserved success but typical of smaller companies struggling with a great product. The song, the choreo, the styling was totally on point.
I Don't Miss U is one of the best B-Sides I've ever heard, I think their company NV is really good gave them an MV for that as well.
The MV for I Don't Miss U was so good. 
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