aespa vs Illit - a decisive fight for the 5th gen of Kpop

The upcoming aespa vs Illit battle has a lot of things in stake.

If aespa wins, it cements its position of the premier act of this era, now New Jeans won't be what it used to be.

If illit wins, the 4th Gen will be swept away, which means the 3rd gen (BTS, BP, Twice, etc ) and the last of 2nd gen (name undisclosed) will also be swept away.

However, without any prejudices, I think the chance of an Illit win is about 1/3.

That is because Illit's new song will probably emphasize Japan. Magnetic was a surprise but Beliftlab is a company which emphasizes tours, not super hits, and it is possible that Beliftlab will kind of 'manage' Illit to not have megahits to prevent a NewJeans like situation.

Only Wonhee and to some degree Moka have any loyalty to Hybe, the other three coming from other companies. Promoting them too much reveals that the hybe training system is bad, since people who had trained elsewhere are having greater successes. It is likely that no matter what Minju might do she will always be remembered as a YG trainee, and the same to the other two.

Meanwhile, this is a golden chance for SM to reclaim its superiority which it lost around 2018 when BTS decisively crushed Exo.

It is possible that SM might put a flop song to let aespa down, but given that aespa members are fairly loyal to SM, and now it has become the premier act of SM, without someone who wants only boy groups in there, I think if aespa can put a moderately successful song like Savage, not a superhit (and creamed by the last of 2nd generation), but decent enough, it will beat Illit.

From 2025 I think Illit will mostly stay in Japan, while aespa, which is starting a new arc of world tour, will prepare to fight BTS who will return near end of the year, and avenge Exo's defeat.

Quote from Tru-Multistan

babymonster

Not in this fight

Once this fight is decided it gets settled for at least 2 years

Quote from Wateris

If a 5th year group can't do much better, it is embarrassing itself.

Magnetic still out doing any release this year LMAO so 5th gen definitely taking over. Wait for Babymonster too.

ILLIT will success regardless, it's more like Karma, all the hates currently given to them for PFW 2.0 will pay back double again.

If Illit loses, it does not overturn the previous generation so instead of becoming the 5th Gen, it becomes the 4.5th gen.

It does not matter if Illit is successful, it has to beat aespa and send all of the 4th , 3rd and 2nd Gen to Valhalla.

Quote from bbgc

It will be difficult for Illit to recover from the taint of "Ripped-off Jeans",

The celebrity and public sentiment in SKorea is highly with New Jeans and the act to suffer will be Illit and not LSF.

So even if their songs do well, they will be under a cloud.

Also 5th gen started too early, that they are still facing NJ, IVE, GIDLE and Aespa.

There aren't going to be any decisive leaders from 5th gen, for another 2-4 years.

HYBE pushing multiple GGs, has diluted such dynamics.

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APink, Girl's Day, etc are considered to be 2.5th generation since they did not overturn the 2nd Gen.

(There are no 3.5th gen idols since the Covid thing shut them down so what would have been the 3.5th Gen, like Ateez, Gidle, Stray Kids and txt are considered to be 3rd gen.)

So if Illit loses this battle, not only Illit, but BM, Meovv, etc will all be relegated to become 4.5th generation.

Quote from lia09

And why are y'all comparing a 4 year old group with a group debuted a few months ago? I thought illit's competition are Meovv and BM.

Because Beliftlab decided to fight SM at this point of time?

Quote from tetetete

how are you announcing aespa vs BTS
I take offense on behalf of BP

Hybe acts distribute their albums through YG Plus

Which is why Mr YG does not let BP fight BTS