So NJs finally announced the comeback, I personally think the friday release won't be a problem, the day of release usually affect the first days of charting and the anticipation for this NJs comeback is so big I don't think it's affected by these things. However the promotion they will do in Korea could change things in the long run. I personally would like they try this prerelease the 7th but that they will drop the album the 24th and promote the whole album a bit more in korea, we will see.
Posts by uwuwu-98
-
-
Since people are also posting Spotify updates here, let me just say that enhypen doing 1.8m streams on global with a partial tracking day surprised me a lot. They might do 2m+ tomorrow. Really hard for me to judge these 4th gen bgs. Stray kids/txt/enhypen now all doing similarly when it comes to Spotify.
But it also seems a lot of 4th gen groups can reach close to 2m now. Maybe the kpop audience on Spotify (that also uses kpop playlists) just has grown a lot. Does makes sense if you consider that Spotify's userbase has doubled since 2020
The overall kpop performance has improved a lot since autoplay started. I have no idea how it works exactly or what companies are using it more or less, but I personally think it's related somehow. The ULs of some artists grow in a pretty different way since then, rising more probably because this autoplay thing makes the songs be played to people that wouldn't play the song before.
I don't want to judge any groups since as I said, I have no idea what is happening exactly, but I'm a bit suspicious about these things.
-
Regarding New Jeans comeback, I was almost sure they were going to drop a prerelease in June but they have their first fan meeting the 1st and 2nd of July and i'm not sure if they'd be doing the precomeback schedule during that or to release a song before it but the album later. I still insist the promotion for NJs comeback shouldn't be a ''normal'' promotion so it's hard to say how it's going to be exactly, but the album is definitely going to be released in July.
As I said Queencard is likely going to catch Unforgiven and I am, I doubt it will go as high as Spicy at least for now tho, maybe when Spicy leaves the 4 weeks chart and Queencard will most likely snatch #1 there something could happen.
-
I'm expecting Queencard to rise a lot more than I am and Unforgiven to fall. Both should lose 20k~ ULs and Queencard could perfectly catch up, it's still the 2nd week and most songs are peaking in the late 2nd week or in the 3rd, we will see.
-
It looks like Spicy is going to get that #1, the gap in the realtime chart is already considerable. I expect the song to rise even more this next week since it will be at #1 in both the 4 weeks chart and the normal chart, it will be interesting to see where it peaks, I don't think it will come close to Ditto or I am but maybe 450k or so is possible which would be really good.
Queencard is also doing pretty good, I think by the next weekend it should come close or surpass I am and Unforgiven.
Seventeen is gonna leave the 4 weeks chart tomorrow, if it falls a lot it might go below Hype boy and Ditto before they leave the top 10. It's starting to look like Hype boy could go to 45 weeks or so.
-
The 18th of May was the Gwangju uprising, they often do ceremonies and that kind of stuff so not exactly like a weekend but it's not a normal day of charting, that's why yesterday most songs lost a decent amount of ULs and now they're gaining a lot, it's not uni performances lmao.
Ditto is about to be surpassed by Hype boy, insane what this song is going to achieve, if it resists above Ditto and the other song around that is going to leave the 4 weeks chart next week it's going to be at #8, we'd need 3 hits to kick it out and looking at the schedule that might be in a while, unless some new risers comes.
-
Melomance is releasing a song the 29th, non idols' performance have gotten pretty weak since the chart reform but Melomance is always worth to have an eye on.
Gidle started just like I though, slighty worse than LSFM. I think it will have it harder to rise because of the wall we have @@@ccb77503-23b8-460f-bada-0e6f344a69f5@@@ and I personally don't like the song as much as the others neither, but that's just me after all.
The fight for #1 is going to be interesting definitely, I wanted Ive to hold #1 until NJs comeback just because it would be fun to see 2 acts topping for 8-9 consecutive months but so many ggs slaying is also really good to see. Specially surprised that Aespa is joining it but the more the better.
-
I wouldn't be surprised if the NJ songs experience a "stat boost" so to speak, when they return this summer.
Of course, that boost may be completely offset by the presence of new NJ songs at the top of the chart, forcing the older songs further down.
It'll be interesting to watch unfold
Yeah I'm pretty sure it will happen. Actually it happened with Ive and LSFM because of their big comebacks now, AL and Antifragile were charting lower than Attention before the comebacks but now they're higher with a decent gap, the opposite will probably happen after NJ's, but maybe the rise will be even bigger, at least if the comeback is how I imagine, and also looking at how Hype boy rose in January.
-
It looks like Unforgiven is going to fight for #1 and Spicy for #3 now that Ive songs are falling faster. It's going to be interesting to see where Gidle goes, it would be surprising if it doesn't reach the top 5 though, which would make the top 5 to be 4 different ggs.
Hype boy and Ditto are also at risk of leaving the top 10, there's a song that should leave the 4 weeks chart this thursday and it's close to catch up, if it stops rising they should be safe at least this week. The luck they had with the huge empty house in the first quarter of the year letting them stay on top for so long is now the opposite with so many big comebacks in the 2nd quarter making them leave the top 10 faster than it seemed. ''Faster'' regarding these last weeks ofc because 40 weeks damn.
-
YG started it all with promoting multiple titel songs off 1 album. Big bang, 2ne1, winner, ikon, Akmu, BP all did it, not only once but multiple times.
Newjeans just made the other companies realise that in this new era, multiple title tracks/prerelease still possible -it gives them more chance to get a hit song
It was pretty common during the 2nd gen, not just for YG acts, it's true YG artists did it the most though, YG has always wanted to have a western vibe for these things. The thing is it was not common anymore in general, and even the active YG acts (apart from BP) weren't promoting like that frequently these last years when it was the rule before.
Then New Jeans did it and we have everybody giving it a try, I think it's quite obvious what is the turning point.
not necessarily related to these thread what groups are gonna be affected by this? is flo really that hard to chart?
External Content twitter.comContent embedded from external sources will not be displayed without your consent.Through the activation of external content, you agree that personal data may be transferred to third party platforms. We have provided more information on this in our privacy policy.A bit random, ig the big companies related to Flo tried to push this someway? I think it won't have barely any effect in BB though, the numbers of Flo are probably super low in proportion.
-
Quite funny we all never really thought about the 4 weeks chart until we mentioned it here randomly and we started to agree lmao. The impact now is really easy to see, not just for LSFM but all these songs entering the top 10-5 and leaving after a couple of weeks are always the songs charting pretty high in the 4W chart. Ive songs dropped a lot this week and LSFM rose because of promotions obviously but these last days it might be rising a bit more than before also because it's at #1 in the chart now.
Regarding Aespa, they're charting a bit better than I expected, but the bsides charting is obviously related with the way they decided to promote the album.
Regarding this we should talk about how NJs have changed literally all the companies thoughts regarding promotions, because it's obviously not a coincidence. After the 2nd gen all companies completely gave up on promoting more than 1 song, they just dropped the title and a bunch of filler songs (yes we all like our favs b sides but it was obvious they didn't care about them) and this had been happening for almost a decade in most cases. Really few groups and just with few comebacks tried other things and in most cases it was big acts internationally because it fits more the western way to promote (BTS and BP obviously)
But now we had NJs debut promoting 3 songs and having their first comeback with a prerelease and suddenly we have: Ive with a prerelease, Stay C using their japanese song as a prerelease, Aespa with other prerelease and the track videos being released before the album is out, Gidle has just released Allergy... In some few months almost all the top ggs have decided to promote a bit more like that.
I'm really glad for this, it's definitely working in most cases and it helps all this gg dominance I'm personally enjoying a lot lol, but apart from that it shows (or at least it makes it seem) they care more about the music they release in general.
-
I mentioned it joking a while ago but at this point it wouldn't be that surprising if I am holds the #1 position until NJs comeback, I think it should resist May and apart from G-Dragon I don't think any other strong act digitally is rumored to comeback in June. G-Dragon would obviously break the streak tho.
-
I'd be really surprised if Gidle surpasses I am. I am is going to be around 500k ULs, and after songs with ''bad'' (good but worse than their previous song and the other ggs hits) the anticipation is lower most of the times. Actually if I've had to bet before both comebacks I'd have said LSFM was going to perform better than Gidle. Even Ive didn't manage to reach 400k ULs with neither of the comebacks in 24h, they needed the promos and people to like the songs after some time, to reach that right now is not as easy as Ive is making it seem.
-
External Content twitter.comContent embedded from external sources will not be displayed without your consent.Through the activation of external content, you agree that personal data may be transferred to third party platforms. We have provided more information on this in our privacy policy.
OMG should reach it in some few weeks too, isn't this really big? I wonder how their digital success in Japan is translating into their real popularity there, I'm going to suppose both things aren't growing at the same level because only BTS has done better than them (since the streaming era started)
-
A group's popularity (reason why they might trend when they've a comeback or how much people talk about them) and the interest people have on a group's music is not the same. Aespa is probably as popular as LSFM in Korea right now or even more because they're more entablished and Next level was huge, but after their last releases people are definitely anticipating more LSFM's music. That's why I don't like to use trends in different sites to predict how a group is going to chart.
I don't think Aespa's title is going to have high numbers at first neither, the long run might be different though.
-
Unforgiven has started pretty strong, to reach the top 3 eventually is almost guaranteed and it might challenge Ive's songs in a week or 2 if the promos help and the public likes the song.
External Content twitter.comContent embedded from external sources will not be displayed without your consent.Through the activation of external content, you agree that personal data may be transferred to third party platforms. We have provided more information on this in our privacy policy.In January I said they could reach 100 weeks this year, well they're definitely going to reach that easily after the next comeback. Even 150 cumulative weeks is possible at this point, if the new releases don't push out fast the songs in the top 10 right now they could be at 80~ weeks when they have their next comeback if it's before June ends, we're talking about numbers completely out of context here, they're on a whole other level.
-
Display More
Saw these predictions for MMA, and while we're only half-way the tracking period, it still can give us an impression of where things might be going.
For Artist of the Year Ive will catch up to NewJeans, until they release their album. NCT Dream, LYW and possibly SVT when they catch up, will compete for the voting points. Seems inevitable tho that this will be Ive vs NewJeans.
Ive will probably win the digital race for Album of the Year, unless NewJeans' album pulls crazy numbers. Voting will be intense between the boygroups, so if they split the votes it could help Ive/NewJeans
Basically guaranteed that Ditto will stay 1 with the Uls score for Song of the Year. One of the Ive songs will probably end up being its main competitor, but for this one a big hit that's released in the coming 2/3 months might also have a shot.
Right now I would predict a GG sweep for the Daesangs, just a question which ones will go to Ive and which ones to NewJeans
I'd say NJs is basically guaranteed to win ArOTY and SOTY, mainly because of the timing of the comebacks. a December-January and a June-July comeback is just the perfect timing to accumulate a high score, it looks Ive's comeback is just as succesful as NJs but they probably won't be able to catch up because of that, unless they have way better longevity.
Also I'm not sure why they don't count it here, but unless they made a new rule recently MMA nominates all kind of projects for Album of the year (BB got a nomination for one of their singles of MADE in 2015 for example), so OMG would be leading that too with the same score New Jeans have in the artist of the year rank. I still think New Jeans next comeback with the proper promotion might be the strongest contestant for that though.
I'd really like MMA to give the Record of the year properly to an artist that can't win a daesang that year but they probably deserve it like they did with Aespa (Gidle last year, it might be Ive this year if NJs sweep which wouldn't be weird), not to a Seventeen or a trot singer.
-
Yeah Taeyang is just performing as I expected, as I said I was pretty surprised by Vibe's charting so I'm gonna blame Jimin for that.
For G-Dragon we should expect a slay though, the difference between G-Dragon and the other members is huge.
Does anyone know how the global chart of Circle works exactly? Yes it's something like global streaming but what charts are they counting? I was a bit worried Ive would get blocked for both songs of the month and I was surprised to check that I am is currently at #1. In general the chart differs so much to what we can see in the Spotify global chart for example, the fact that Cupid is not #1 right now is really surprising if they're really counting Spotify just with that they should be clear.
-
Seventeen's fandom streaming is insane but apart from that the public has always had more interest on them than in other bgs with strong fandoms (NCT, SK...). Now after Fighting the public might have given them a chance, the charting in Genie for example looks pretty organic so far.
Taeyang tomorrow will be an interesting one, Vibe did better than I expected but I'm not sure if it was because of armys fandom streaming or because the public really cared about it.
-
Display More
Was looking more into the 4 weeks chart, and while I already assumed it had an influence on charting, I didn't know it had this much of an impact on songs going up/down. Below are some examples I looked at out of my own interest, but I imagine there are a lot more examples of the same thing happening
Example 1: On The Street left the 4 week chart on April 1st. The day before it actually reached its peak on Melon, but after it turned 4 weeks old it kinda started to freefall. At the time I wondered what the reason was for it, but looking at it now the 4 week chart might have been a major factor.
Example 2: Sugar Rush Ride left the 4 week chart on February 25th. Same thing as with On The Street charted around its peak position the day before, but after that it kept dropping down.
Example 3: These are the stats for Teddy Bear's uls on Melon's daily chart. March 14th was the last day it was charting on the 4 weeks chart, and as you can see also here, the day before it reached its uls peaks. Then, after the removal its upward momentum was lost and the uls started to drop down.
On guyso you can take a look yourself at the 1 week and 4 weeks chart:
1 week: https://xn--o39an51b2re.com/me…art/newest/w1/20230420/174 weeks: https://xn--o39an51b2re.com/me…art/newest/w4/20230420/17
Good research.
I mentioned a while ago how SK is probably the country most influenced by charts, so many check new music based on their chart ranking or they just go and play the melon top 100 list, that's why chart manipulations bothers me that much.
Regarding this, even if it's not the most common chart korean people use, if a 10-20% of people decided to use this instead of the well known top 100 chart to check new music instead of listening to the same music always, it would be enough to make a pretty big impact on the chart positions looking at how little the difference is in so many cases. I guess it's a decent way to help new songs a bit after they got rid of the realtime chart. I still miss the graph tho.
