Long ago, i posted a hypothesis that the whole Hybe/MHJ mess could be a tipping point, a sign that the dominance of 4th gen GG music that was started by Aespa in 2021 with Next Level has finally been broken.
And unless Ive or Aespa shows some real movement in the next couple weeks, my hypothesis could be proven 2/3 right at least. Ive is a long ways away from #1 on Melon, Heya only peaked at 300k UL, while Magnetic peaked at almost 385k and Jennie peaked over 420k. This would be the first time since their literal debut that Ive failed to reach #1 on Melon Weekly. Aespa is flopping even harder so far, only 180k UL peak after 134k UL start.
And both are being promoted like crazy. Ive has been everywhere, getting on huge Korean channels, scoring millions of views on YT for variety, but with zero impact to the song. Aespa just starting i guess but mathematically, going from 134k initial UL count to 350k or whatever is needed to reach #1 on Melon is very very unlikely.
Of course, the final nail in the coffin would be the fate of New Jeans. Folks seem convinced that they are riding some mega wave of GP support.
Personally however, i dont think the qoo, nate, and the rest of the Knetz scum represent the GP. I see Magnetic still holding on to a slight UL lead for #2 on Melon over Heya even ever after a month of this alleged "tidal wave" of GP support for NJ and hate for all Hybe groups esp IIIIT and Lsrfm.
There was also a supposed nationwide hate train for Jisoo after her movie caused a literal Blue House petition or some shit like that. Of course, she ended up debuting with over 400k ULs and peaked #2 behind only Ive. Flower was a trend for a while, everyone doing that chorus choreo.
So i remain unconvinced that the GP even gives a shit about the scandal. Its only Knetz and who knows how many of these are legit accounts. I would not be shocked at all to find out that both Hybe and MHJ are using media play tactics via forums to trash the other side, i would not be shocked at all to find out rival companies like SM and Kakao that hate Hybe are engaged in negative mediaplay as well.
But what all this is doing could just be turning music listeners off from GG Kpop music in general.
We'll know for sure when NJ releases. I'm expecting close to 500k UL for NJ, since everyone has convinced themselves that NJ is riding this GP tidal wave of organic support. If they end up with only Jennie/Zico peak of 420k on Melon, i would say their position remains unchanged. If they end up doing less than that, then i think my hypothesis that the 4th gen GG craze has peaked would be validated.
