KPop Speculation - who would have won the Grand Prizes if "Scarlet Heart : Moon Lovers" had beaten "Love in Moonlight" back in 2016?

There is a subset of fantasy literature called "Alternate History". I won't go long explaining what it is; "Man in High Castle", by Philip Dick, is one of such works which might be familiar. It is about how history would have progressed if it went differently.

Park Bogum, himself a decent singer, inadvertently did change KPop's course when his Love in Moonlight, basically his one-person show, sank Scarlet Heart : Moon Lovers, starring Lee Jieun and many others.

If the reverse had occurred IU would have largely retired from singing, like Suzy, and would have moved on to become a full time actress. She might release a single once in a blue moon, but would largely be recognized as an actress who was formerly a singer.

Here are who would have won the awards where she had won back in 2017, 2018 , 2021 and 2022

2017

Melon Awards -Digital - Akmu

2018

Golden Disk - Digital - Twice's knock knock. (They don't give awards to people like Akmu. )

2021

Now it becomes quite interesting.

The very reason IU won the Grand Prize on Digitals with Blueming, released on Nov 2019 , when from the same award she had been disqualified with Good Day (released Dec 2010) and You and I (released Nov 2019), was bending the rules and it was to prevent a clean sweep of all awards by BTS.

Since the intention was to disallow a sweep all awards by BTS, most likely the winner would have been Zico, who was in the military at that time, or Red Velvet, who was #10 in the melon yearly ranking on 2020 (#8 after removing Eight and Blueming) but was the highest idol group after BTS.

So Golden Disk Digital - Red Velvet's Psycho.

2021 Melon

Digital - Aespa

Album of the year - since BTS and Aespa were not available on the award day, I would say that Lim Youngwoong , who was there, might have won as a surprise choice since someone had to be present on that award ceremony.

2022 Golden Disk

Digital Grand Prize of the year - aespa's Next Level.

Aespa was given 'Artist of the year' award, not considered as a grand prize in Golden Disk, as a runner up prize so if Park Bogum had been defeated by IU back in 2016, aespa would have won a Grand Prize in 2022.

Quote from emanresu

I watched MDBC for Kim Yoo Jung, not Park Bo Gum.

She was main event for me.

There would have been people who watched it for her, or B1A4's Jinyoung, but everyone back then was talking about PBG at that time and he did reach #1 in the top tv actor poll in that year for one single drama on 2016

Quote from bbgc

And your counter history is called what "Woman High in the Digital Charts"?

If IU would have given up her Music Career based on the success of her acting projects, then definitely My Mister and Hotel Del Luna were major successes.

Yet she didn't.

She simply has no reason to give it up,

#1. Yes idols come last in the pecking order of prestige in SK, yet she has transcended that

#2. No other idol actress comes anywhere close to IU's success in music. Not Suzy, not Hyeri, Eunji, not Yoona etc. Might have to go all the way back to Jang Nara.

#3. She has age on her side, having achieved success when she was 17-18.

And given that K-acting has women playing leads all the way to their late 30s.

More than the success/failures of her acting it is the immense success of her Music and the high level of autonomy she has with her agency, that makes her stick to music.

Instead of this complicated counter history with acting, you could try with "What if Chat-shire or rather Pallette had flopped massively?"

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What happened is in late 2015 the Zeze fiasco and the defeat against F(x) drove her to the verge of irrelevancy so she accepted this deal which would have established her as an exclusive actress.

But the she was clobbered by Park Bogum.

Her 2017 comeback was a last ditch attempt, which was mauled by Laboum and Suran (ft Suga of BTS).

It is said that her 2016 concert, with no new songs, was a flop. Her career was now in big crisis.

A success in Moon Lovers would have been followed by acting offers both in Korea and China, which would have moved her further from singing, while the 3rd Gen would have been stuck.

Instead Moon Lovers ended with the fiasco of a decade, and its late popularity did not really make too much money for its creators. Which probably made her to bet everything in one single throw of dice, "Through the Night".

TtN was actually opposed by the execs in Kakao because it was a slow ballad which they saw no chance. Ironically Ailee's song "First Snow" did soften people's ears for ballads, which led to the approval of her plan to attempt to return to grace with TtN.

But then she was met by Laboum and Suran, and it is only Hyori's homestay which saved her.

Chatshire was a flop, which is a true statement. With a success in Moon Lovers, there is no Palette.

It is probable that without IU the calculus of KPop would have changed significantly; perhaps a male soloist would have dominated the ballad market, and also Kpop vocals trying their luck more . However it is too broad of a topic and I decided to keep it more focused.