Hi,
The past couple of pages have been... Oooff.
They really be trying to distract from the biggest news regarding that company.
Just bringing it back a bit with a couple of thoughts...
How likely are indictments regarding BSH and the other executives?
From everything I’ve read, my familiarity in Finance, and if you look at what happens in Korea in similar cases), I’d say:
- Hitman Bang personally — about a 60-70% chance he gets indicted. There’s profit-sharing evidence, and the founder angle makes this very juicy for prosecutors..and yes the new Govt will want to make an example of this situation and also...
- Corporate Exec Team — probably 65%-75%chance they get indicted for misleading early investors. The FSS already sent it to prosecutors, which almost always leads to charges.
So, bottom line: it’s looking more likely than not that we see one or both indicted soon.
BSH can get out of this IMO if he: Backs out of the company completely and divests + full cooperation (meaning placing the blame on the rest of the corporate execs and him claiming innocence) and that company adheres to stricter governance with a new outside exec team.
The other part I was thinking of when larger heads and or corporate exec teams get indicted is the investor angle. Which could lead to...
What happens if Mirae bails?
Mirae Asset is one of their biggest investors — they’ve got a lot of equity in the company.
If heads roll and indictments come (even if it doesn't for Bang), Mirae will be under massive pressure to get out:
- Public pension clients (like NPS) can’t justify holding a chunk of an indicted company.
- Mirae has ESG (governance) rules that will basically force their hand.
- Politically, they won’t want to be seen supporting a company under this kind of scrutiny.
And once Mirae starts selling? Other Korean funds will follow. NH, KB, Samsung Asset — they’ll all start reducing. That’ll tank the stock, fast.
Real talk: if this happens, expect the stock to drop 30–50% quickly. Could be more if it gets messy.
I think Mirae could stay obviously--and "strongly recommend" a company to do a takeover and/or break up the company and sell each individual piece for equity - this makes sense since they've invested so much already. Mirae is a Financial Investor and not an operator so they wouldn't take over themselves.
It'll get very messy unless they find a way out of fhis.
-knysom