Posts by ill-pray-4-u

Quote from gerrard174

I reckon now Twice needs promotion to get a hit.

So hopefully promotion can do them wonders.

On the other hand, aespa reached top10 without music shows comeback. And with music show promotions, the song recently just reached top3.

Aespa is doing incredible. Surprise of the year for me tbh

Quote from atropos

Almost all songs fall after 24 hours. With promotions it'll stabilize and rise. Just give it some time.

Most hits either reach the top 10 in their first 24 hours or continue to rise after their first 24 hours. Few true hits fell then rose again. It has happened, but to say "almost all" is a gross exaggeration.

Quote from perrotusa

I cant stop me fell for 2 days straight then started re rising and peaked at 12 two weeks later. It has barely been 24 hours, waay to early to call it a flop

I said, a bit too early, but it's not waaaaay too early considering everything we know. ICSM was still a flop as well, but even it peaked higher in its first 24 hours. AF will have to rise a lot, which doesn't seem likely, but not impossible either.

Quote from salem9

Korean GP is extremely reluctant to their new releases. Sometimes they do well, sometimes they flop

However, what really seems worrysome is that the fandom is pretty much broken. Album sales took a big blow after chinese fans decided to not contribute anymore

They are now at their 7th year, which means the fandom won't grow much from now on

Do you think they will survive more time? It seems like a big hiatus might come soon

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Why did their Chinese fans stop contributing?

Quote from wsoet

I've included below excerpts from @halfdavid's data set:

BP_Twice_Sales.png

As we can see, my calculations are correct given the data I had to work with.

Now for Blackpink, I already combined the two versions of The Album. It seems to me like they should have 8 releases then.

For Twice, I know Kura Kura was released recently, which isn't reflected here, and if added, would give them 28 releases, as you stated. Now what are the three extra albums that are missing?

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Disregarding agreements over the amount of Twice albums, here are the figures with updated sales:

Blackpink:
2,725,405 albums sold
Average (by 8): 340,676 albums

Twice (since your update only WIL and Feel Special sold more copies to change the numbers. Also Kura Kura included):
9,313,671 albums sold
Average (by 28): 332,631

Quote from Slayurfaves

I'm a blink I'm not even a once lol I remember you from the old forum you just hate twice

it sucks that an anti is also a Jisoo stan she deserves better fans.

Strange you made such a thread then but alright you do you lol.
Honesty and hating are very different things.

Quote from Slayurfaves

can you not ruin my thread?

Sorry. Maybe worry about the song dropping on melon once their first 24 hours ended? It's fallen like 5 spots in just two hours.

Alcohol free dropping more each hour after their 24 hours ended. A bit early, but it's looking like their 4th flop in a row. Wow consistent and dominant girl group did that lmao.

Their decline, or at best stagnation, continues in many departments I see.

Quote from wsoet

I've included below excerpts from @halfdavid's data set:

BP_Twice_Sales.png

As we can see, my calculations are correct given the data I had to work with.

Now for Blackpink, I already combined the two versions of The Album. It seems to me like they should have 8 releases then.

For Twice, I know Kura Kura was released recently, which isn't reflected here, and if added, would give them 28 releases, as you stated. Now what are the three extra albums that are missing?

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Thank you for your data.

You are correct about BP, tbh I forgot about KTL Japanese release, so I assumed you counted the re-edition of Blackpink which had no new songs. Therefor that removes the idea of including re-editions (those with no new songs) for Twice such as the Twicecoaster Christmas edition. Since that point was fair in the end, you can forget about that.

For Twice, besides Kura Kura, which you mentioned, The BDZ repackage and &Twice repackage that both include new music are notably missing. Since people outside of Onces seem to agree that those types of repackages with new music are separate. That point can be argued about though I guess.

The main point that you've acknowledged is that using data that only goes through March has already changed/skewed the results from the present situation anyway.

Quote from wsoet

I calculated average (mean) girl group sales using data compiled by @halfdavid on Twitter. Her data set includes girl groups from 2001 to present, and is up-to-date as of the March 2021 Gaon update and the April 7 2021 Oricon update. I only included groups with over 100,000 in sales.

#01. Twice: 9,204,460 ÷ 27 = 340,906

#02. Blackpink: 2,673,673 ÷ 8 = 334,209

#03. Iz*One: 2,951,524 ÷ 9 = 327,947

#04. Irene & Seulgi: 233,162 ÷ 1 = 233,162

#05. Itzy: 532,661 ÷ 3 = 177,554

#06. Girls' Generation: 5,356,042 ÷ 31 = 172,776

#07. Big Mama: 567,521 ÷ 5 = 113,504

#08. Girls' Generation-TTS: 313,903 ÷ 3 = 104,634

#09. Kara: 3,717,781 ÷ 37 = 100,481

#10. Red Velvet: 1,597,424 ÷ 16 = 99,839

#11. I.O.I: 272,000 ÷ 3 = 90,667

#12. (G)I-dle: 603,543 ÷ 7 = 86,220

#13. Loona: 307,384 ÷ 4 = 76,846

#14. f(x): 599,806 ÷ 10 = 59,981

#15. WJSN: 636,123 ÷ 11 = 57,829

#16. 2NE1: 790,987 ÷ 14 = 56,499

#17. Mamamoo: 868,826 ÷ 16 = 54,302

#18. GFriend: 983,876 ÷ 19 = 51,783

#19. fromis_9: 196,301 ÷ 5 = 39,260

#20. SeeYa: 235,393 ÷ 6 = 39,232

#21. Apink: 1,040,079 ÷ 28 = 37,146

#22. T-ara: 1,139,140 ÷ 32 = 35,598

#23. Everglow: 136,632 ÷ 4 = 34,158

#24. Wonder Girls: 374,320 ÷ 11 = 34,029

#25. Dreamcatcher: 469,626 ÷ 15 = 31,308

#26. Lovelyz: 399,873 ÷ 13 = 30,759

#27. Oh My Girl: 385,112 ÷ 15 = 25,674

#28. Weki Meki: 163,318 ÷ 7 = 23,331

#29. AOA: 419,659 ÷ 18 = 23,314

#30. Miss A: 123,990 ÷ 7 = 17,713

#31. Jewelry: 123,108 ÷ 7 = 17,587

#32. Gugudan: 103,953 ÷ 6 = 17,326

#33. Davichi: 154,838 ÷ 9 = 17,204

#34. After School: 266,233 ÷ 16 = 16,640

#35. Gavy NJ: 113,939 ÷ 7 = 16,277

#36. Rainbow: 177,717 ÷ 11 = 16,156

#37. Girl's Day: 159,214 ÷ 10 = 15,921

#38. 4Minute: 266,708 ÷ 17 = 15,689

#39. Sistar: 149,794 ÷ 11 = 13,618

#40. EXID: 159,111 ÷ 12 = 13,259

#41. DIA: 108,371 ÷ 9 = 12,041

#42. Secret: 181,319 ÷ 16 = 11,332

#43. Brown Eyed Girls: 163,881 ÷ 16 = 10,243

#44. Momoland: 121,980 ÷ 13 = 9,383

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Also not sure if it was to intentional to be biased or not, But Blackpink’s Japanese re-edition is counted as two albums in your average but some Twice re-edition and rereleases are suspiciously omitted. Not to mention they wouldn’t even be number one at all with recent data included the way you did it previously.

Blackpink has 8 physical releases if you include their Japanese re-edition as a separate album.

Twice has 31 physical releases if you include the missing 1 Japanese comeback, 2 repackages and a re-edition.

If you want to choose a direction, that would be great

Quote from wsoet

I calculated average (mean) girl group sales using data compiled by @halfdavid on Twitter. Her data set includes girl groups from 2001 to present, and is up-to-date as of the March 2021 Gaon update and the April 7 2021 Oricon update. I only included groups with over 100,000 in sales.

#01. Twice: 9,204,460 ÷ 27 = 340,906

#02. Blackpink: 2,673,673 ÷ 8 = 334,209

#03. Iz*One: 2,951,524 ÷ 9 = 327,947

#04. Irene & Seulgi: 233,162 ÷ 1 = 233,162

#05. Itzy: 532,661 ÷ 3 = 177,554

#06. Girls' Generation: 5,356,042 ÷ 31 = 172,776

#07. Big Mama: 567,521 ÷ 5 = 113,504

#08. Girls' Generation-TTS: 313,903 ÷ 3 = 104,634

#09. Kara: 3,717,781 ÷ 37 = 100,481

#10. Red Velvet: 1,597,424 ÷ 16 = 99,839

#11. I.O.I: 272,000 ÷ 3 = 90,667

#12. (G)I-dle: 603,543 ÷ 7 = 86,220

#13. Loona: 307,384 ÷ 4 = 76,846

#14. f(x): 599,806 ÷ 10 = 59,981

#15. WJSN: 636,123 ÷ 11 = 57,829

#16. 2NE1: 790,987 ÷ 14 = 56,499

#17. Mamamoo: 868,826 ÷ 16 = 54,302

#18. GFriend: 983,876 ÷ 19 = 51,783

#19. fromis_9: 196,301 ÷ 5 = 39,260

#20. SeeYa: 235,393 ÷ 6 = 39,232

#21. Apink: 1,040,079 ÷ 28 = 37,146

#22. T-ara: 1,139,140 ÷ 32 = 35,598

#23. Everglow: 136,632 ÷ 4 = 34,158

#24. Wonder Girls: 374,320 ÷ 11 = 34,029

#25. Dreamcatcher: 469,626 ÷ 15 = 31,308

#26. Lovelyz: 399,873 ÷ 13 = 30,759

#27. Oh My Girl: 385,112 ÷ 15 = 25,674

#28. Weki Meki: 163,318 ÷ 7 = 23,331

#29. AOA: 419,659 ÷ 18 = 23,314

#30. Miss A: 123,990 ÷ 7 = 17,713

#31. Jewelry: 123,108 ÷ 7 = 17,587

#32. Gugudan: 103,953 ÷ 6 = 17,326

#33. Davichi: 154,838 ÷ 9 = 17,204

#34. After School: 266,233 ÷ 16 = 16,640

#35. Gavy NJ: 113,939 ÷ 7 = 16,277

#36. Rainbow: 177,717 ÷ 11 = 16,156

#37. Girl's Day: 159,214 ÷ 10 = 15,921

#38. 4Minute: 266,708 ÷ 17 = 15,689

#39. Sistar: 149,794 ÷ 11 = 13,618

#40. EXID: 159,111 ÷ 12 = 13,259

#41. DIA: 108,371 ÷ 9 = 12,041

#42. Secret: 181,319 ÷ 16 = 11,332

#43. Brown Eyed Girls: 163,881 ÷ 16 = 10,243

#44. Momoland: 121,980 ÷ 13 = 9,383

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Blackpink pulled ahead of twice with both since then, and has been above them for Korean average for a while . As twice had a flop release in Japan and BP back catalog increased more than Twice, their averages went down and up respectively.

Quote from atropos

Alcohol free looks like can end up with good performance on the charts. Right now it's 22 on 24hits. Its 23 on old realtime.

The first hour after it’s first 24 hours ended, it stopped rising and went down a spot to number 23 on 24hits. Not a good sign

Quote from atropos

#39 on melon atm

Entered melon too late. But it's doing much better atm.

For a non-nugu group, to not be in the top 20 by now is embarrassing.

It would be all 4 Blackpink if they released more often lmao.

They only had one album this decade so far.

Twice is doing worse on melon than expected. The 24 hour mark is approaching. Does anyone know the UL’s currently?

It’s rising slower than expected. So far an underperformance. We’ll see if it rises more after 24 hours or if it stays put.

Quote from miuhiae

just curious, what would be your favorite twice song?

It changes from time to time but it's either ICSM or Knock Knock

Not feeling it. Nothing interesting about the chorus especially. Has a summer feel, but kind of in a weird zone where it's not the style of "laid back" that Korea likes, but also not that fast and upbeat either. I'll be surprised if it does any better than ICSM did.

The MV was their best in a while though.

I liked the MV. It looked a lot less cheap than their past several. But the song is their worst since Signal. Nothing interesting or all that catchy about it. Korea might like it though, guess we'll see in a few hours.