Who will be the first 4th generation group to win a Daesang?
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Album Daesang: They have to beat NCT then BTS on sales. Won't happen that soon.
Artist Daesang: They have to beat BTS on sales, digitals and voting. Won't happen that soon.
Song Daesang: The most probable. Next Level has a chance, but:
- MAMA: it has to beat Butter in sales and voting - won't happen
- MMA: it could win depending on the judges
- GDA: it lacks 1st month digitals to go against Celebrity and voting to go against Butter. - won't happen
As for next year:
- IU won't release anything at the beginning of the year, so she won't have the digitals. Even if she releases something this November, it won't be eligible for MMA, so someone else can win there.
- BTS looks like they will release an album only early 2022. So, if the song hits, they will have the whole year of tracking. They also dominate the physicals and voting.
- Blackpink is looking for an early 2022 comeback. If the song hits, they will have the whole year of tracking. They also have good sales and voting.
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Aespa for Next Level probably.
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Album Daesang: They have to beat NCT then BTS on sales. Won't happen that soon.
Artist Daesang: They have to beat BTS on sales, digitals and voting. Won't happen that soon.
Song Daesang: The most probable. Next Level has a chance, but:
- MAMA: it has to beat Butter in sales and voting - won't happen
- MMA: it has to beat Celebrity in digitals - won't happen
- GDA: it lacks 1st month digitals to go against Celebrity and voting to go against Butter. - won't happen
NL has good chance at MMA though. They can split the Album and Artist between BTS and IU. This is pretty likely.
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just because they give IU one award doesn’t mean she can’t get another though. I can see her getting both album and song of the year
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- IU won't release anything at the beginning of the year, so she won't have the digitals. Even if she releases something this November, it won't be eligible for MMA, so someone else can win there.
MMA's eligibility period, seem to change each year by a bit. So November releases could still be a contender and if IU cares to contend, she could adjust the schedule, but does she?
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Aespa has the best performing song out of all 4th gen groups domestically so they have the biggest chance to win song of the year. I don't really think they will win because they're going against butter/celebrity but those criterias have always been strange to me so anything is possible.
If they don't win then the first group to win some other time could be itzy, aespa or txt
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