Predict how fast first snow will fall off charts after Christmas and win a prize

Quote from randkpopstan

like 2 or 3 times bigger

It's 5 times bigger, if you go by ULs

Last Christmas season First Snow lost about 80% of their points 5 weeks after the Christmas day

However this year the song is doing much stronger. I believe it will do about 17 million points right before Christmas week (circle chart, next Wednesday but with data going until saturday I think)

Currently, you just need 3 million points to be on the top 100, and when Christmas is over this will probably plummet to even less, 2.5 million maybe. So everything EXO needs is not to collapse bellow 2.5 million points and they are safe into the top 100

With all that in mind and fully believing First Snow is keeping their 2002 legs I predict the song to survive 8 weeks starting counting today i.e. dropping off the top 100 between February 17 and February 24

I believe by January 1st we shall see wether this prediction has any chance to materialize or not

I mean every song charts high and then eventually falls off. It is not some new crazy fact you just discovered.

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Now that I think about it I have no idea how long TFS will chart... for all I know it can dissapear from charts by tomorrow

But I will be optimistic and say mid January?

Quote from sveznalica

Now that I think about it I have no idea how long TFS will chart... for all I know it can dissapear from charts by tomorrow

But I will be optimistic and say mid January?

late february!

I think TFS gonna have some longevity after Christmas, their challenge in Tiktok is getting viral and helps a lot

Quote from Rarami

late february!

That would be nice but by the end of February we are ready for spring (which means CBX should make comeback)

Quote from hieuken

I think TFS gonna have some longevity after Christmas, their challenge in Tiktok is getting viral and helps a lot

Good point. Maybe early March is not out of question. We really need to wait until first week of January to measure

it will never fall off of course

This year the popularity of the song have little to do with christmas

Annual christmas songs really only peak just around and on christmas. This has been at the top for weeks now, i dont see it dropping like a stone as is usual for christmas songs.

I need to see how it fares after 26th before drawing any conclusions.

Either it'll drop really fast and be out by the end of January or it'll stay until around March, rn I'm predicting the latter.

Quote from NightChamp

it will never fall off of course

Christmas is everyday actually

I don't know the challenge seems to be getting bigger as days go by so it might mean the song will keep charting as long as people keep doing it.

Let's hope your faves Christmas song gets a challenge next year and gets big so you won't sound so bitter.

Quote from Kreatin

This year the popularity of the song have little to do with christmas

Annual christmas songs really only peak just around and on christmas. This has been at the top for weeks now, i dont see it dropping like a stone as is usual for christmas songs.

Wut? Perfect NIght was #1 until like 4 days ago.

I agree otherwise, i think this is more of an EXO revival than just a Christmas outlier. I think it could still be #1 until New Years and will battle PN in January.

Last year it was a Christmas song that rose

This year it’s a hit song. So longer than last year but prolly not as long as other songs that hit #1.

Idk it’s hard to say. First snow has been charting for weeks now already. In the top 10/20 etc.

So actually you can’t compare it to Christmas songs. By asking this question you’re ignoring how long it’s already been on the charts 👀👀

Quote from BlackpinkHouse

Wut? Perfect NIght was #1 until like 4 days ago.

I agree otherwise, i think this is more of an EXO revival than just a Christmas outlier. I think it could still be #1 until New Years and will battle PN in January.

Top doesn’t mean #1 it’s been rising on the charts since November it was way ahead of any Christmas release. It went viral because of tiktok not because it’s Christmas

this song will battle with PN, drama or to x next week?and in the end Gidle took first place in January?