Four generations of artists in the song, all women
Last part is narrated by Patti kim, who was basically the equivialent of IU in the 60s and 70s in korea.
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First hour uls is about what i expected, was thinking around 45k
Going away for a while, so i'll do something i normally don't really like to do without much chart data to back it up, some predictions..
Either way, the charts are currently the most interesting they have been for i dont know how long
Shame i'll likely miss out on most of it
Enjoy it while it lasts
Display MoreThis is why i've been on my soap box preaching about how irrelevant digital charting is.
If Gaon Digital Points = revenue, this means that even songs with 1 BILLION Gaon Points are giving like a measly 750k USD in gross revenue to the artist/label.
That is literal chump change. There is no money to be made here.
Compare a song earning 1 BIllion Gaon Points bringing 750k USD to the label, vs an album selling 2 Million units which could bring 30 MILLION USD in gross revenue to the label.
Well you are comparing a song to a whole album. If its a decently popular album it will get more points than just for one song and circle charts revuene statement never made much sense either way because its still filtered streams/revenue they report on (otherwise someone like lyw would be filling the chart considering he gets more unfiltered streams than anyone)
But of course, physical always brings in more if you can sell, theres a reason its so pushed for in kpop.
A few things i didnt know about regarding melon and downloads, from a korean fandom account
There are three type of downloads. MP3, Flac and DCF (encrypted files that can be download by meon free club ticket holders)
It apparently used to be that flac was available in different qualitys, and every different quality resulted in its own registered download. This was seemingly changed in 2022 so regardless of quality downloaded it just registers as one download. Lossy and lossless are still registered as two separate downloads.
The price for a lossy song is 770KRW, Flac is 1100kRW. Even if one is more expensive than the other,they are still counted the same, on melon. But they say its sometimes recommended to download FLAC first in consideration of circle chart, becuase there it actually matters.
So if what they say is true, the music services might be actually reporting revenue to gaon, and not pure uls/downloads. This is the second source ive read now saying this (another post i saw said the same about downloads on bugs and circle chart)
This could explain why circle changed to digital points to begin with, they simply stopped getting the raw ul/download data from the services and instead just get reported revenue for songs. They have themselves said they equal digital points to revenue a song would make, but ive just assumed they did their own calculations based on if it was a stream or download.
Just like Music Videos on YouTube.
You can stream a song 100's of times, but you can only like them once (unless you have multiple accounts).
So it can be more a measurement of fandom strength.
And even here i would say artists with dedicated fandoms in general are much more prone to actually liking a video. A huge part of casual viewers never use the like buttons at all.
I'm curious if anyone in this thread cares about Melon likes as much as I do. It's a relatively basic measurement of success compared to the graphs and trends we use to try to understand the lifecycle of a song on the charts, but really based on my own conjecture, I find there to be a strong correlation between major hit songs and Melon likes.
For additional context, I'm looking at "Easy" already hitting 11.4k likes in just a half day of charting time, whereas "Super Lady" and "Wife" since release have accumulated 23k and 24k respectively since release.
That alone suggests to me "Easy" is going to be a much bigger hit on MelOn, without even looking at the ULs.
Likes have never really been that good of an indicator really at least upon release. They are also usually extremely front loaded when it comes to idol groups. Often groups will gain 10-20k in the first day or two, then you look weeks later and it still sitting at 20k. Fans are usually pressing that like button before they even start playing the song. Id say its a good metric for initial built hype for a comeback in the first few hours.
Its also a measurement thats almost impossible to compare with songs just a year or two back. Back in 2020 Eight got 107k likes in the first four hours of release, the result of an IU combo with army fandom when it was at it most active, no song will ever match or even come close to that as it stands. Celebrity in 2021 took 25 hours to reach it.
Compare to:
Ditto 7 days
I AM 15 days
Seven 12 days
Super Shy 22 days
To X, about 67 days
LWA 20 days
Its a clear trend down here as with listeners overall
BYG didnt manage to grab the top 100 #1 in last update, no more chance before the morning, and if it continues the same trend as previous days, it could be hard to manage a RAK before IU comeback tomorrow. But maybe its gained enough now to grab #1 during they day tomorrow.
I have to say that the Hot 100 chart impact is basically... nothing. LSFM debuting in the top 3 and falling the next update just means people don't even check the chart. It works like the old realtime chart and back then a debut like that would have made the song to jump to #1 in the next hour in almost all the cases. I remember when they started with this chart Guyso explained how bad planned it was and how it was hidden, I really wonder how Melon can be handling this kind of situations this bad, they could just put everything exactly the same they had before the 24h chart (with the graph on top of the website, I miss it) but with the current hot 100 instead of the realtime to avoid the fandom streaming situation, and I'm completely sure the activity regarding new songs would improve again.
Yea, i dont know how it works in the app that i assume most listeners are using, but at least on the homepage hot 100 is tucked away behind top 100 chart.
Both top 100 and hot 100 are based on 40% streams and 60% downloads still according to their website, which explains the discrepancies between ranks and hourly/daily uls sometimes. (but i dont think downloads are reflected in the hot 100 5 minute chart?)
BYG have had this somewhat weird trend all weekend where its starts trending up between 8pm-12pm, or rather it doesnt lose listeners at near the same rate the others do, so could still pick up.
BYG was just about 400-500 hourly uls from claiming #1 on top 100 at 11pm, might take it next update.
As i was saying Bam yang gang has this somewhat odd trend of just trucking along barely losing any listeners from 8pm until midnight compared to the other songs.
This is the fift day in a row, ever since it started charting in top 5 on friday.
27k debut Uls for LSF's new song. 7k higher than what Super Lady got so 24h uls will be around 130-140k uls probably.
In the meantime Love Wins All and Plot Twist are doing better today than Bibi's song on Melon during the peak hours. Plot Twist also reached #1 on Genie during 7pm peak hour now.
Tomorrow however LWA will get a boost again so I imagine it can widen the gap on the different charts again.
LSF firs thour is better then i expected (but then overall uls are up now compared to when super lady released)
BYG have had this somewhat weird trend all weekend where its starts trending up between 8pm-12pm, or rather it doesnt lose listeners at near the same rate the others do, so could still pick up.
Plot twist usually trend up at around 1pm and 9-10pm. To X trends up between 14-18pm, then theres rhapsody of sadness which has been strong during night hours and early morning.
the new release also seems to have shrunk the gap between the top three songs on melon because they are all very tight on the 5 min chart atm compared to previous hour.
Display MoreFor the 9 am update:
BAM YANG GANG #1 on Flo and bugs
PLOT TWIST #1 on Genie
LOVE WINS ALL #1 on melon
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LSRFM can change everything lol
lol, i think someone just massdownloaded plot twist on genie or it added 6k streams from nowere at 9am. Its the highest unfiltered number its ever had in an hour.
+9k Unfiltered ul streams added, almost 10k more than LWA. Yet it barely scraped by on the chart which is filtered with a % of 5,58 vs lwa's 5.51
All other songs are within expected range and trend.
Plot twist
LWA
Gam Yang Gang
edit:
And back down to normal numbers at 10am
The Korean Youtube chart for Shorts is something else lol. So many non-kpop songs. The highest kpop ones right now are Plot Twist and All Night. A lot of Japanese songs charting high as well. And this Chinese song has been #1 there for almost 70 days now.
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Yeah Bibi is not slowing down. Just jumped to #1 on FLO. Also close to having more realtime streams than Love Wins All on Melon. Music consumption might be tragic but I'm loving the surprises 2024 is giving so far tbh.
It just beat lwa on melon in realtime at 0am with about thirty listeners. First song from hot 100 to bypass at 0am since lwa release. Merry plistmas and A letter (no longer in hot 100) did it for 3hours total at 7pm on sundays previously.
LYW of course almost always have more uls than any other act at night, but he doesnt have any song in hot 100.
And tws and bibi took #1 and #2 respectivly on genie as well with the last update.
Not too unexpected, usually the shift in top charts come during the weekends/monday, when uls are low but new songs are trending and can retain a fair amount of repeat listeners even in off hours. Will be interesting to see how tomorrow goes, going into it i was expecting tws to maybe challenge on monday, but seems it will be bibi.
Bibi is way above LWA already there, almost impossible to hold it even with a boost. Holssi's views are just of 1 day instead of 2 (checking kworb) but even with the double of streams doesn't look enough to beat Bibi's streams that should even go higher. Unless Shopper has a huge debut I'd say it's for Bibi. It would mean no PAKs for IU's title, not sure when was the last time she had a title with no PAKs but I honestly don't remember it lol.
At this point I even see it challenging #1 in the rest of the charts just a week or some days after IU's album is released, I think her ULs will go quite high.
it was only a matter of time ever since youtube chart was included on instiz really
Other IU songs that wouldnt have gotten pak with youtube included:
Blueming (peak #2)
Give you my heart (peak #8)
Lilac (peak #2)
Strawberry moon (peak #1, but too late for pak)
ircc only love poem, Celebrity and LWA have done 2+ weeks on youtube chart since 2019. Strawberry moon barely managed a #1 in its second week.
As for next week id agree its probably going to be bibi in first place, my guess for rankings:
Bam yang gang
LWA/Holssi
Shopper
Maybe add serrafim into the mix as well
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Even if shopper does well, i dont think it has any chance overtaking a song thats performing like bam yang gang currently with only 2,5 days of tracking.
Holssi is also kinda hampered by the fact that it doesnt have its audio track available on youtube music. LWA on this weeks chart had 3m streams from audio track and only 600k from official mv. (I will never understand the reasoning for only pre-releasing an mv and not the audio for any act that does it)
...
As always her lyrics can be interpreted in various ways, but thats probably the gist of it.
I do doubt anything of it has to do with any notion of worldwide success or not. It would be the antis and typical negativity in korea , which kan take some batshit insane proportions in some cases, that it is in part commenting on. (I dont think i have ever seen any korean comments about anything regarding worldwide success or promotions )
For better or worse, IU has little to no clue about anything going on outside of korea regarding herself. She has never promoted directly outside of the country (exception is a few months in japan back in 2012). Her concert overseas has always been because the demand has been there to begin with.
Bibi's charting is scary, at this point it wouldn't surprise me if it faces IU for #1 after the songs fall a bit since it will probably be peaking the 3rd week or so, the rise is really fast and with promos it could be even more.
I agree with Kreatin, Holssi definitely sounds like the "side-title" and Shopper will probably chart better, the fact that it was released before the album pretty much means that she will promote more Shopper too.
Bibi's song sounds very much like it could have been an IU track in a way (kinda ironic considering the writer and composer is Jang Kiha, IU's ex boyfriend..)
What could have been
Anyway, Holssi feels like the equivivalent of Coin (or above the time). I expect the chart perfomance for it to be relatively similar to that.
I like it. Fighting with twenty three for being her trippiest MV. Fitting for a pre-release mv.
bfr celebrity was the biggest song of 2021, next level was a close 2nd. and lilac is definitely one of the top5 songs from that year
Theres no point, trust me ive tried multiple times with chart data and metrics. Next level is blackpinkshouse biggest song of 2021, no matter what.
You know HYBE net worth is $7 Billion dollars right???
Thats 9.1 Trillion KRW
More like HYBE can buy both Chaebol families 2 times over
Point is that the TBL girl is part of the samsung and Shinsegae family. There's rich then there's being in the family who founded and controls organisations that has over 20% of koreas GDP. Hybe buy her family? Hybe, kakao and yg put together is literally pocket money for them. This is the richest and most powerful family in south korea, they are as close to royalty as you can get.
Its also a horrible family that has tens of thousands of peoples blood on their hands (like most chaebols). Not that children should be judged by the sins of their fathers, but seeing people worship them just because they are chaebol offspring is kinda...
Yeah I thought the "usual" sajaegi accusations happened when a song was doing well on only one of the platforms, which would be sus indeed. But the song is performing well everywhere.
To me it all just sounds like extreme cope.
"no one is Korea is talking about them" if your basis for "Korean people" is pannchoa then I have some news for you
Not really, almost all the hubub about songs accused of sajaegi in the last years have charted relative even on most if not all domestic charts. Its more that accusations start flying as soon as any unknown/new artist enter top 100 on the bigger charts.
Last month it was rhapsody of sadness being suspected despite it charting on all charts and having a steady rise since december
And to play the devils advocate (not saying this song is sajaegi), but if i were a company making money on selling botted streams, i would offer it on all services because 1) it makes it look alot less suspicious 2) you can charge extra money without costing anything extra in investments when it comes to hardware and the controlling software is already in place.
