Who, at this point, do you think will win the decisive NewJeans-IU fight later this year? 5
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NewJeans (4) 80%
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IU (1) 20%
It is not worthwhile to list all of Hannibal Barca of Carthage's accomplishments here.
Long story short, after Hannibal was defeated by Scipio Africanus, Hannibal had to flee Carthage . He went to a bunch of places, including a place called Bithinia, now the northern coast of Turkey.
Rome was looking for him and he was always ready to flee. And, lo and behold, there was an exile from Rome, who was none other than Scipio Africanus himself. Scipio got into some trouble in Rome and had to run for a while.
In the historical meeting of the two generals, which may or may not be true, Scipio asked Hannibal who was the Greatest General of all time (i.e. ancient world). Hannibal said Alexander the Great
Scipio asked who was the second greatest, probably thinking about himself, and Hannibal said "Pyrrhus of Epirus". Pyrrhus was a Greek king who fought the Romans, and although he won most of his battles, they were very costly so the term pyrrhic victory has stuck to this day.
Scipio , then, asked who was the third greatest, and Hannibal pointed to himself. Scipio asked , 'How about me?'
Not answering Scipio directly, Hannibal said "If I had defeated you, I would have been the greatest general of all time."
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IU's rumored new drama has no news although it is now in the 2nd half of January.
It might be off because IU might have opted out of it.
Something has really changed in Hybe - NewJeans is now the new darling, and Mr. Bang is now influenced by Ador and Min Heejin, who already influenced a lot of Hybe's architecture and internal matters, might have a bigger influence over the entire Hybe organization, which can only mean shunning BTS.
Given the less-than-expected showing of BTS' solo activities, and the complete lack of attention to them from Hybe's HQs, it appears that a permanent change has taken place inside Hybe - NJ is now the emphasis of Hybe, leaving BTS to the wayside.
I now see that a disbandment of BTS before Seokjin is discharged is not out of question, or at most the so-called 2025 "Yet to Come" will be their last promotion as a whole.
( I don't count late activities like Backstreet Boys now as activities. BSB effectively disbanded on 2001, and whatever happened next is just a 'job' for the members. Whatever tours they might do, they are not relevant for the discourse of pop anymore. So if BTS is no longer relevant for the course of Pop, I don't talk about it, just as I don't talk about most 2nd Gen singers now.)
In other words, the nemesis for BTS might have been Min Heejin, not Taylor Swift, The Weeknd or IU.
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Lee Jieun personally watched NewJeans perform in the movie award ceremony. Yoona stopped Lee Jieun watching IVE but it appears Yoona stopped at the wrong moment, since while IVE doesn't seem to be an existential threat to the former owner of Edam Entertainment, NewJeans appears to be so.
Without the Lee Jongsuk scandal, Lee Jieun would probably have been able to defeat NewJeans , albeit with some difficulties. However, now the scandal has closed the doors for newer fans, IU faces an uphill battle.
IU's greatest success came from early Jan 2017, when she was done with Kiha, until late 2022. We don't know whether she was in relationship(s) or not but no one cared since no one knew about it.
For the first time in her career, Lee Jieun has met an existential threat.
The battle between NewJeans and IU will take place on late 2023. If IU doesn't fight NJ, the whole world will see that IU ran away because she was afraid of NJ, so NJ wins by default.
Most likely , given her previous battles against BigBang+Sistar+Kara, SNSD, EXO, Twice, BTS, IZOne and aespa, she will release her songs after NewJeans releases its 1st regular album in Aug or Sep.
Victory will be determined by whether IU can dislodge NewJeans' songs from the top 3. IU has to permanently kick the NewJeans songs from #1 . If IU takes #1 for a few days and NJ takes the spot back, IU has lost to NewJeans, free and clear, and the whole world will see that IU has lost the touch and with that the 3rd Gen ends. (Technically IU belongs to the 2nd Gen, but since her heyday was during the 3rd Gen dominance era, her fall means the end of 3rd Gen as well.)
Given the enormous stake of this fight, it seems she realized this is not the time to spend time doing dramas or things like that and is concentrating everything for the upcoming struggle with NewJeans.
Given the way things are going now, it seems BabyMonster will be a younger version of BlackPink, and NewJeans is now cleaning up such style so it will probably lose to NJ. NJ's producers follow the latest trends and act accordingly, a step ahead of every KPop producers including the former owner of Edam Entertainment.
A NewJeans victory over IU means Min Heejin's voice will get even stronger within Hybe and she will ask for permission to run BTS according to her whim, a move RM is unlikely to approve. He would rather choose to disband the group than listen to Min Heejin's wishes.
It is ironical that the singer who spent her whole life fighting the 2nd and 3rd Generations of KPop has become the last barrier against the torrent of 4th Generation sweeping the previous KPop scene away.
