Posts by 3best

    Looked it up and today is still Saturday January 21 where I am, so it is still New Year on the Mongolian calendar. Both the Chinese and Mongolian lunisolar calendars calculate NY based on the second new moon after the winter solstice. I guess the Chinese calendar uses the day after the second new moon and the Mongolian calendar uses the day of the new moon. The new moon "appears" on January 21 not 22.

    Mongolian New Year celebration is on 21 February this year, it is official and there are holidays on that day in Mongolia & even some provinces in other countries (e.g. Republic of Buryatia in Russia). Mongolian lunisolar year can last 13 months instead of usual 12 depending on the year to equalize the average year length with the solar calendar. Tibetan calendar also does this, although afaik it does not use the same calculation for Losar hence it does not coincide with the MNY most of the time.

    Chinese New Year (or Spring Festival), Seollal, etc. are celebrated based on the Chinese lunisolar calendar. Most people in the world are probably more familiar with the Chinese celebrations, hence why they sometimes get lumped together which is of course not good and I fully understand that you could feel that your culture is kind of erased there. However, I think that this push of trying to replace "Chinese" with "Lunar" is equally disrespectful and has little to do with the desire to respect other cultures but just a part of the general anti-Chinese narratives. Why? Because it instead erases all people who follow different lunisolar calendars. For example, Tsagaan Sar (Mongolian New Year) is celebrated by Mongolian and some Turkic (e.g. Tuvans) ethnicities, the date is calculated using a Mongolian lunisolar calendar. Hence "LNY" is not at all more inclusive than the CNY in my opinion, because it essentially labels one celebration as THE LNY while others are kind of sidelined, just like now.


    I don't know if there is some other name to the Chinese lunisolar calendar, so maybe it should be used instead e.g. "X Lunar New Year".

    Ok I just finished the first episode. It's true that it's a bit slow paced and I hope it picks up too. However, I really am surprised at how well they presented the key plots, so many characters, and 'essence' of the novel so far. They also got all the actors and 'TONE' of the novel correct.


    I'm gonna wait until more episodes get uploaded and then watch.

    There are already 3 more episodes on YouTube, I think they are releasing them daily or something. The second episode is better than the first one imo, they nailed the atmosphere. The pacing is probably the result of adapting the book so thoroughly because the book itself is slow-paced at the start.

    Netflix is also making a series base on this trilogy and so I will watch that too. Wonder which will be the better adaptation.

    Looked through the cast - as expected, Western entertainment continues with the routine of erasing Asians in favour of non-Asian actors even in adaptations of Asian works. The first book has like two non-Chinese characters while the cast is majority non-Asian and considering that there are only two Asian male actors (one of whom is already confirmed to be Wang Miao) so far, which means that Netflix has erased most of the Chinese male characters like always and will probably push WMAF pairings again.


    I don't understand their hate boner against Asians, especially the obvious gender typecasting.

    Sounds fair, YouTube shadowbans comments with non-YT links since long time ago under the pretense of "anti-spam protection", so why can't Twitter. Besides it is a private company, they can change their ToS and people are free to leave if they disagree. There are many Twitter copies there - Mastodon, Truth Social and so on.

    I mean one would think that in a country of 1.4 billionish people they'd find some people capable of kicking a ball/shooting a ball/throwing a ball etc etc lol

    That's some bullshit thinking, sorry. Professional sports are not about the number of people but about funding, sport facilities, general public interest in said sport, perception, etc. China has, for example, one of the best female volleyball teams.


    E.g. Indians must be genetically bad at sports or something just because they don't perform well at Olympics? Or, actually, maybe people around the world sometimes simply don't really care about certain sports.

    Wanted to say , *thanks* for your *high quality* message post here ... As observation (NOT expert here in USA) , it *seems* as IF that it is POSSIBLE that LDP could be VOTED OUT , if needed in JAPAN ... As opposed to say Leader XI in PRChina = *complete* TYRANT level control via PRChina MILITARY ... And USA did *almost* fall into a *ONE PARTY DOMINATE* (TRUMP Party) situation in Year 1992 ... It was a *miracle* 'come back' by B.CLINTON that *saved* the BIDEN Party at the time ... Currently , me , NOT clear that the *TRUMP Party* is a very acceptable 'alternative' to the BIDEN Party as USA PREZ level control ... The TRUMP Party is increasingly dominated *now* by 'RIGHT WING CRANKS' (in my view) ... And believe me , here , me , NOT a 'fan' of everything that BIDEN Party does either ... But your point , as I see it , is that JAPAN is 'one party dominated' ... Which , is NOT so good , my view ... OZ nation has *two* fairly acceptable major POLITICAL Parties (Albanese = LABOR , LIBERAL = Conservative oddly) , which is how that you WANT it in my view ... Again , *thanks* to post your message here about JAPAN political situation ... :thumbup:

    I think the problem is not with a lack of acceptable parties but with LDP being simply too influential with affiliations in many important Japanese organizations and companies compared to any other Japanese political party, which is not surprising considering that they ruled the country since 1955 almost uninterrupted. It is actually even longer than that because LDP's roots come from the Imperial Japan government. Another issue is the overall low level of political engagement among the Japanese populace, especially the youth - plenty of people vote for LDP simply based on inertia rather than because of their platform.

    This attack makes no sense.

    He barely had any power secured.

    Sorry but this is blatantly incorrect. Japan is essentially a one-party state with LDP ruling the country since "democratization" in 1955 almost uninterrupted - the only exceptions are 1993-1994 and 2009-12, yes whopping 2 periods and both times opposition PMs resigned prematurely. Abe was the leader of the largest and most influential wing of that party, which essentially made him a kingmaker - e.g. the victory of current PM Kishida is tied to his endorsement by Abe. He definitely held a lot of influence and power over Japanese politics, also being one of the leaders of the far-right fascist organization "Nippon Kaigi" (focused on white-washing Imperial Japan and denying their war crimes), members of which have almost 1/3rd of the seats in National Diet.


    He is one of the most influential and powerful PMs in Japan ever, even after his retirement. Basically, Abe and "barely had any power" - you can only pick one here.

    What did you expect from the "free" press, lol? The likes of NYT even shilled for the Iraq war and peddled fake news about WMDs. Of course they will try to whitewash and "both-side" as much as possible since Israel is buddy-buddy with the US & co.


    Btw, it's funny how some subs on Reddit are straight-up censoring this video, and mods on worldnews kept removing the news about this.

    Figured you thought that correct in the quote to another user up there. Personally I believe estimates on Chinese local government hidden debts by any institute any time would be far from truth.


    I think Evergrande and a huge portion of Chinese enterprises in different sectors have been as a matter of fact highly related to the rapidly increasing Chinese local government debts since 2011 to 2013. Most of the companies expanded / operated on more than potentially affordable financial leverage obtaining funds from banks owned by local governments. Blurred LGFV debts allows for China central government to write that off when necessary since mostly domestic. Evergrande is only tip of the ice burg.

    Estimates from S&P are fair game for me unless you provide credible analysis from another finance industry-related institution. Plus, as you said, the lending to corporations from the local governments is essentially accounted for in the non-financial corporate debt statistic. The part about the domestic holding of the debt confirms that mariaVSkpop's narrative of a "debt bubble that will destroy the world" is incorrect.

    I am curious why do you think the estimates of China local government debt is correct when LGFV figures is hidden in the cloud?


    One company -Evergrande- alone has liability of $300 billions.


    https://www.investopedia.com/e…-defaults-on-debt-5212684

    It is an estimate by S&P that was made back in 2018 through their research on the hidden debts. Why do you think it is incorrect?


    Evergrande is parallel to the point you were trying to make. It is not related to LGFV debts, it is a non-financial corporate debt and yes, that sector contributes the most to the total non-financial debt figure - for example, it was 162% of GDP in 2020. Plus, it is the largest developer with both huge assets and liabilities - the size of their liabilities hardly translates to other companies as most of them are far smaller.

    1. The Japanese bubble already burst in the late 80s and 90s. They are in stagnation ever since, they are not getting worse or better. Meanwhile, Japan's debt is internal, held by japanese citizens, japanese investment firms etc..

    2.The European countries debt is also not really that severe or dangerous since it is backed by the ECB and the various mechanisms established during the 2010s crisis and then the pandemic. Even the greek debt is not that bad.

    The percentage of greek debt to gdp is that high because the gdp has shrank around 35% in the previous 12 years so it does not reflect the debt in absolute numbers, greece btw has a positive primary surplus since around 2012 i think. Also, the current government has changed many of the previous administrations' policies (especially the dreadful 4 years of the previous radical leftist government which caused the disaster of 2015) so the economy is bound to bounce back sooner rather than later (greece is now one of the fastest recovering countries in the EU after the pandemic). They also replace previous debt and with new bonds at much lower rates (the 10 year bonds where above 6% not even 5 years ago, now they are around 1% if i remember correctly).


    3. If you really want to look where the next big debt bubble that will destroy the world economy is, look at china, not at the central governmental level but the local governments. It is there where they bury their debt so that it doesn't show as central government debt, and it has been in the trillions and growing uncontrollably for nearly a decade.

    It's funny how you are talking about "the debt is fine if it is held internally" but then go write about the "debt bubble that will destroy the world" in China when their debt is also held internally - primarily by the government and SOEs, not even the public. Don't you see a contradiction there? The external debt of China is small and it is a net creditor, just like Japan.


    You are also incorrect about the local government debt - it is counted separately from the central government debt and the total figure is a sum of those two. The lack of transparency in LGFVs is true, however, the estimates have been in the $4-5 trillion range, which even when added to the government debt figure would lead to around 65% of GDP which is not that big.


    Inb4 "300%" comes up without mentioning that it stands for the total non-financial debt (non-financial corporate debt + household debt + national debt) and that figure was ~270% in 2020. For instance, the US non-financial debt was 235.5% (non-financial corporate + household debts) + 129% (national debt) = 364.5% in 2020. In fact, many European countries are 300%+ on that metric (Italy 180% + 155.3% = 335.3%, France 296.5% + 115.7% = 412.2%, etc. with likes of Germany 176.9% + 69.7% = 246.6% being the exceptions).

    The second 'black box' containing flight data was found. Some rumors:

    Quote

    According to flight tracking website FlightRadar24, the plane briefly appeared to pull out of its nosedive before resuming its plunge to earth.

    FlightRadar24 data showed the aircraft was plummeting at a rate of 31,000 feet per minute.

    Authorities said the pilots did not respond to repeated calls from air traffic controllers and nearby planes during the rapid descent.

    There is also information on the pilots - the captain and his co-pilot were extremely experienced with clean mental health records and stable family situations. In addition to that, they had a third young pilot in the cabin. Moreover, pilots who operated 737-800 say that it is actually not that easy to make the plane nosedive as there is in-built protection from that but it is unclear whether it could be manually switched off. This makes the 'pilot suicide' theory less likely, as the pilot would have to overcome two other pilots while turning the protection to make that nosedive.


    Could be a structural failure of the plane.