4th Gen GG aespa, ITZY, IVE and Kep1er comeback sale Prediction

    Here we go, anyone is welcome to predict. Since lot of u talk about spotify and rarely see anyone touching sale.


    aespa next comeback with an Full album will see a minimum of 800k and maximum of 900k on Gaon. If SM want to achieve 1 mil, then they have to follow JYP play book where u have to release multiple versions and a special version 1 month down the line after the initial released. Out of the 4th gen here, aespa seem to dominate the korean and Chinese market, and they slowly gaining steam in Japan.


    Itzy next comeback with a mini album will see a minimum of 350k and a maximum of 450 on Gaon. Before people tell me they just sold 500k, they need to look at why Itzy was able to do so. First, it was a Full album. Second, their album had 6 versions, 5 member version and a special Edition 1 month after their comeback. Itzy still popular internationally, but most sale are coming from Korea, China and Japan. They seems to behind most of these 4th Gen group in all these countries maybe ahead of Kep1er in korea fandom-wise.


    Kep1er next comeback with a Full or mini album. If they follow izone with a mini album, Then we will see a minimum of 450k to 550k on Gaon. Japan seem to love their song, so I am not suprise if 500 to 600k is their range.


    IVE next comeback with a mini album will see a minimum of 400k and a maximum of 500k. Japan also seems to like them and Eleven is a viral song among kpop fan internationally. It also doesn't hurt that they kinda smashing in Korea. This is a test for IVE next comeback whether 1 viral song can net you many royal fans who will buy ur album. I can see them go to 450 to 550 range.

  • Moderator

    Approved the thread.

    aespa will definitely sell a million with the next kevel hype stilk around

    I disagree about itzy. Itzy is still showing growth in album sales. I don't know how high but 600k+ is possible. Also wasn't everyone hyping them up after MAMA performance. They may have collected new fans.

    Quote from Smoked Mustard & Rosemary Rabbit (241)

    I disagree about itzy. Itzy is still showing growth in album sales. I don't know how high but 600k+ is possible. Also wasn't everyone hyping them up after MAMA performance. They may have collected new fans.

    We will see. Look at my post regarding how they get to 500k. It took alot effort from JYP to get the album to reach the number. This is why I am skeptical about their growth. Their next come back which will be a mini album by The way, The max I can see them at 450k. They are 3 years old now and it doesn't help that Nmixx is gona take some fans from them.

    Y’all are delusional if you think aespa can almost double their sales like that. Every single gg that’s reached 500k has had a relatively stable sales that didn’t go up so fast, look at izone and twice. Bp is the only one who went from 400k to 1.4m.


    To be fair there is a limited pool to look at, but it seems like everyone is just putting some crazy expectations on their sales. Just cuz they debut with 500k doesn’t mean their gonna have that same growth.

    Quote from Dried Beets & Lemon Turkey (598)

    Y’all are delusional if you think aespa can almost double their sales like that. Every single gg that’s reached 500k has had a relatively stable sales that didn’t go up so fast, look at izone and twice. Bp is the only one who went from 400k to 1.4m.


    To be fair there is a limited pool to look at, but it seems like everyone is just putting some crazy expectations on their sales. Just cuz they debut with 500k doesn’t mean their gonna have that same growth.

    The difference is that all these groups reach 500k years after debuting ,their fanbase was stable like their sales because after these years it was hard for them to attract new fans who weren't already stanning them


    aespa reached 580k with a debut album fandom isn't as stable than the gg you mention because they just debuted they can attract even more fans, abd in fact they seem to have gain a lot more fans since Savage and DCT so their next album can easily surpass +600k

    Quote from Dried Beets & Lemon Turkey (598)

    Y’all are delusional if you think aespa can almost double their sales like that. Every single gg that’s reached 500k has had a relatively stable sales that didn’t go up so fast, look at izone and twice. Bp is the only one who went from 400k to 1.4m.


    To be fair there is a limited pool to look at, but it seems like everyone is just putting some crazy expectations on their sales. Just cuz they debut with 500k doesn’t mean their gonna have that same growth.

    You really think they'll stay at 580-600k when savage and dreams come true did well on charts? I was thinking at least 850k

    sales are harder to predict than charts performance so i wont say a thing

    Quote from Seared Creamy Duck (585)

    The difference is that all these groups reach 500k years after debuting ,their fanbase was stable like their sales because after these years it was hard for them to attract new fans who weren't already stanning them


    aespa reached 580k with a debut album fandom isn't as stable than the gg you mention because they just debuted they can attract even more fans, abd in fact they seem to have gain a lot more fans since Savage and DCT so their next album can easily surpass +600k

    They reached 500k years after because they didn’t release their first album when sales were at a all time high lmao.


    It’s unheard of for a gg to double their sales after like 6 months, and it’s not like aespa are blowing everywhere internationally, they are very much still in the same realm as the other 4th gen groups


    I just don’t believe they’ll get 850k++ it’s 700k at the most tbh.

    Quote from Dried Beets & Lemon Turkey (598)

    Y’all are delusional if you think aespa can almost double their sales like that. Every single gg that’s reached 500k has had a relatively stable sales that didn’t go up so fast, look at izone and twice. Bp is the only one who went from 400k to 1.4m.


    To be fair there is a limited pool to look at, but it seems like everyone is just putting some crazy expectations on their sales. Just cuz they debut with 500k doesn’t mean their gonna have that same growth.

    No, I am not delusional. Read my post carefully. 580k with a mini album. With a Full album, a minimum of 800k is not hard. That is only 220k gain. Anything above that is still doable for aespa. Like I said, they need to be creative to get to 1 million. Have you seen demand of aespa goods? They have gain lot of fans domestically, and china since. Also, they are slow growing in Japan. Nothing from my post is delusional, you will see in due time.

    Quote from Dried Beets & Lemon Turkey (598)

    They reached 500k years after because they didn’t release their first album when sales were at a all time high lmao.


    It’s unheard of for a gg to double their sales after like 6 months, and it’s not like aespa are blowing everywhere internationally, they are very much still in the same realm as the other 4th gen groups


    I just don’t believe they’ll get 850k++ it’s 700k at the most tbh.

    You dont need to blow up internationally to reach the sale i have predicted. All they need are these 3 market Korea, China and Japan. I have never predicted double sale lol. Learn how to read.

    Quote from Dried Beets & Lemon Turkey (598)

    They reached 500k years after because they didn’t release their first album when sales were at a all time high lmao.


    It’s unheard of for a gg to double their sales after like 6 months, and it’s not like aespa are blowing everywhere internationally, they are very much still in the same realm as the other 4th gen groups


    I just don’t believe they’ll get 850k++ it’s 700k at the most tbh.

    you're delusional if you think that aespa will increase their sales of 100K at best

    when they almost reached 600K with just a mini album, Savage album reached 580K just thanks to Next level success

    Now with GOT, Savage, and dreams come true success, they gain a lot more fans, and their influence in china increase too, and they already gain in popularity in japan after Savage

    Aespa have a chance to reach 750-800K


    No, you can clearly see that Itzy didn't gain much sales between crazy in love and MITM

    even Izone didn't gain much sales between the debut of the pandemic with secret of the swan and their last comeback and during all these comebacks sales were already boosted

    but none of their album reached the amount of sales that Aespa reached even if they had years to build a fandom, if it was the case Crazy in love and Izone panorama would have sales more than Aespa debut album because the album were already boosted when they release these two album

    stop looking for lame excuses

    Aespa - 750-800k

    I just don't think they've had any massive growth anywhere since Savage to reach 1M but they might surprise people, depends on number of versions too


    Itzy

    350-450k

    They are falling off and unless JYP pulls out some tricks their sales will either stagnate or decline


    IVE

    500K with a full album. I think depending on the song they have the potential to go even higher

    Quote from OP

    You dont need to blow up internationally to reach the sale i have predicted. All they need are these 3 market Korea, China and Japan. I have never predicted double sale lol. Learn how to read.

    I want talking to you op, I was mentioning the comments. So yeah I know how to read

    What lame excuse am I looking for? I said twice and izone didn’t debut with 500k because during their debut time it was literally impossible.



    Y’all can not admit aespa would probably not get 800k. Gg sales are probably capped at 700k at the most if you don’t expand outside of east Asia, twice was stuck at 500k for some time until they started expanding in sea and overall internationally.


    And aespa are making noise in east Asia the most. They will have to expand out of that more. Will that happen? Idk but it seems like sm wants to solidify them there a lot so they will focus on that more.

    Itzy are not that far behind aespa lmao. They already did 500k with cil


    And ive… that seems way to much off a overestimate. 500k? Unheard of for a non big 3 gg

    Quote from OP

    We will see. Look at my post regarding how they get to 500k. It took alot effort from JYP to get the album to reach the number. This is why I am skeptical about their growth. Their next come back which will be a mini album by The way, The max I can see them at 450k. They are 3 years old now and it doesn't help that Nmixx is gona take some fans from them.

    I remember jyp adding another version that inflated their sales. Otherwise they weren't having a 150k+ growth from guess who. They took this measure after they saw how there was barely any growth from guess who.

    External Content twitter.com
    Content embedded from external sources will not be displayed without your consent.
    Through the activation of external content, you agree that personal data may be transferred to third party platforms. We have provided more information on this in our privacy policy.

    Quote from Dried Beets & Lemon Turkey (598)

    Itzy are not that far behind aespa lmao. They already did 500k with cil

    you're joking ? aespa sold almost 600K with a 3 versions album , and their debut album which means they didn't even build a fanbase strong enough at the time of the release


    meanwhile Itzy with guess who ? sold 339K in 8 months

    while Crazy in love sold 335K in 1 months with 5 different version against 519K for Aespa "savage" album in 1 months, JYP saw that their sales didn't increase between Guess who and crazy in love that's why they released a new versions of crazy in love 1 months after to boost the sales, that's why when you watch the gaon chart, crazy in love sold 150K more the next month after the new version was release

    you can't compare a girlgroup selling 335K without using weird tactics of releasing new version month after to boost the sales to a girlgroup able to surpass 500K without any weird tactics to boost their sales

    I hope all the girls and groups do well. Sell thousands of copies. I hope the artists get together and have a blast, meeting at award shows and variety shows. I hope they exchange numbers and keep in touch. And swear to God I hope they never meet fans like these who only care for competition and to see whos' on top, who's relevant JFC.

    Aespa sold like 150k from Chinese ebegging lol. They have like 8-9 months pre release work to build a fandom. This non sense about 1m sales is only gong to end in humiliation for them. Savage tanked in views and streams and did worse than Next Level.

    Let's wait and see what tricks SM try to pull like those missing 1 million sales from Hanteo for NCT.

    Quote from Seared Creamy Duck (585)

    you're joking ? aespa sold almost 600K with a 3 versions album , and their debut album which means they didn't even build a fanbase strong enough at the time of the release


    meanwhile Itzy with guess who ? sold 339K in 8 months

    while Crazy in love sold 335K in 1 months with 5 different version against 519K for Aespa "savage" album in 1 months, JYP saw that their sales didn't increase between Guess who and crazy in love that's why they released a new versions of crazy in love 1 months after to boost the sales, that's why when you watch the gaon chart, crazy in love sold 150K more the next month after the new version was release

    you can't compare a girlgroup selling 335K without using weird tactics of releasing new version month after to boost the sales to a girlgroup able to surpass 500K without any weird tactics to boost their sales

    Thats right. Its like a repackage comeback but not actually having a new song and comeback. I think its a Genius idea really. It boost ITZY and Twice sale atleast around 150k on Gaon when said and done. This is why in my op, I stated if aespa want to reach 1 mil, SM should follow this method, otherwise it's kinda hard.

    Quote from Poached Light Beer Lamb (159)

    Aespa sold like 150k from Chinese ebegging lol. They have like 8-9 months pre release work to build a fandom. This non sense about 1m sales is only gong to end in humiliation for them. Savage tanked in views and streams and did worse than Next Level.

    Let's wait and see what tricks SM try to pull like those missing 1 million sales from Hanteo for NCT.

    Sheesh youre so pressed you have to bring in NCT. Kmca already said their gaon sales are legit. 2.5 MILLION das rite

    Quote from Poached Light Beer Lamb (159)

    Aespa sold like 150k from Chinese ebegging lol. They have like 8-9 months pre release work to build a fandom. This non sense about 1m sales is only gong to end in humiliation for them. Savage tanked in views and streams and did worse than Next Level.

    Let's wait and see what tricks SM try to pull like those missing 1 million sales from Hanteo for NCT.

    So chinese sale is not sale now? I know who this poster here. This sound familiar. Savage did not tank in views. It on pace to reach 200 mil faster than Next Level. It has similar view to Loco while leading Loco around 20 mil.

    External Content twitter.com
    Content embedded from external sources will not be displayed without your consent.
    Through the activation of external content, you agree that personal data may be transferred to third party platforms. We have provided more information on this in our privacy policy.


    Global apple music album only have 3 kpop GG groups charting. Notice how Savage as a song is not charting above Wadada, but the album does despise 3 months older. Aespa Bside is also perform the best on spotify. These stats indicate aespa indeed have a bigger fandom internationally, which is lead to bigger sale just like boy groups but in smaller scale.


    External Content twitter.com
    Content embedded from external sources will not be displayed without your consent.
    Through the activation of external content, you agree that personal data may be transferred to third party platforms. We have provided more information on this in our privacy policy.


    Don't worry about trick. JYP is pretty good at this. The 1 month release special Edition is that trick. Infact, I recommend SM should do this to boost aespa sale to 1 mil, otherwise I don't see they are reaching it.

    Aespa

    650k

    Why you ask? Their sales came after the massive hype of next level. Savage however did not meet many peoples expectations. It actually hurt their popularity a little internationally. I don't think they saw as much growth as you're projecting. At least outside korea


    Itzy

    480k - 550k

    They are growing internationally but they haven't had a big hit with kpop fans since wannabe. They've grown but not as much as they would have had they released better liked songs last year. That's why I'm predicting only a slight increase


    Ive

    500k+

    Eleven has been massively successful on all platforms. They already had the izone boost but now they also have massive hype from their hit song. Wonyoung has gained so much more popularity that she alone can boost them to these numbers


    Kepler

    420k

    Their song is well liked so I feel they've gained a lot more fans. I see a lot of people talking about them everywhere so their popularity is not to be underestimated

    People underestimating aespa growth, what's new? Maybe savage wasn't Next level but it charted really well and the most important thing the album was GOOD and met all the expectations. They couldn't be as popular in the west as other groups but they have key sales markets which is way more important than spotify streams, korea + china + growing in japan (winter got more popular there since savage and Karina and aespa keep growing in china).


    If you think after 6/7 months from their first album, aespa fandom didn't grow at all you're delusional. They sold almost 600k with savage, they are gonna sell more next comeback for sure

    aespa = 700-800k

    cmiiw, aespa ver winter smtown album sales are the 2nd highest only behind NCT 2 vers album. One of the members SQ photocards sales is the highest among SM. So high possibility they will reach this number

    Quote from Deep-Fried Sour Ostrich (90)

    aespa = 700-800k

    cmiiw, aespa ver winter smtown album sales are the 2nd highest only behind NCT 2 vers album. One of the members SQ photocards sales is the highest among SM. So high possibility they will reach this number

    700K-800K looks quite realistic.


    It's funny how akp users like to change their narrative with aespa. Black mamba didn't make much noise, according to akp users it was flopped, only fans listened to forever and while next level is a big hit it was only a digital song so aespa only had two songs before their album. If you check any aespa prediction sales thread for savage the most was expecting 100K-200K, some a bit more than that but nobody was expecting 600K for their first album but sure it's not much, right? let's see how much they can sell next cb, according to some here they gained 0 new fans after savage :joy: :)


    Thread
    Predict Aespa’s album sales
    I’d say 150k
    tokyorv
    Quote from OP

    Thats right. Its like a repackage comeback but not actually having a new song and comeback. I think its a Genius idea really. It boost ITZY and Twice sale atleast around 150k on Gaon when said and done. This is why in my op, I stated if aespa want to reach 1 mil, SM should follow this method, otherwise it's kinda hard.

    Version 4 of Twice last album sold less than 20k on hanteo bud. Nice cope.


    No different than YG re releasing the album later or now Lalisa and SM has done it in the past. Cut you bs

    except it had 60 million ad views lol. Talking about tricks when both SM and YG re release versions after the fact and started it first?


    Pressed much over your donated albums that get sent to the dump lol.

    Quote from Poached Light Beer Lamb (159)

    Version 4 of Twice last album sold less than 20k on hanteo bud. Nice cope.


    No different than YG re releasing the album later or now Lalisa and SM has done it in the past. Cut you bs

    Jyp overshipping albums? The file version sold 93000 on gaon.

    External Content twitter.com
    Content embedded from external sources will not be displayed without your consent.
    Through the activation of external content, you agree that personal data may be transferred to third party platforms. We have provided more information on this in our privacy policy.

    Quote from Poached Light Beer Lamb (159)

    Version 4 of Twice last album sold less than 20k on hanteo bud. Nice cope.


    No different than YG re releasing the album later or now Lalisa and SM has done it in the past. Cut you bs

    Nice try. Admitedly twice special Edition did not register much on hanteo, maybe around 30k, but that not unusual for twice. Look at their hanteo to Gaon sale in the past, It used to be favor Gaon alot more. With more hanteo Certified store, it seem to favor hanteo in the recent release, but that change back to the low hanteo high Gaon sale with this album. So no, JYP shipped tons of album on Gaon compare to hanteo sale.


    Do you know Formula of Love barely lead aespa maybe 25k on hanteo but it is a whooping 230k on Gaon?


    External Content twitter.com
    Content embedded from external sources will not be displayed without your consent.
    Through the activation of external content, you agree that personal data may be transferred to third party platforms. We have provided more information on this in our privacy policy.

    I hope all of these groups do well. Sad that the fans have to treat everything as a competition though.

    Quote from OP

    Nice try. Admitedly twice special Edition did not register much on hanteo, maybe around 30k, but that not unusual for twice. Look at their hanteo to Gaon sale in the past, It used to be favor Gaon alot more. With more hanteo Certified store, it seem to favor hanteo in the recent release, but that change back to the low hanteo high Gaon sale with this album. So no, JYP shipped tons of album on Gaon compare to hanteo sale.


    Do you know Formula of Love barely lead aespa maybe 25k on hanteo but it is a whooping 230k on Gaon?


    External Content twitter.com
    Content embedded from external sources will not be displayed without your consent.
    Through the activation of external content, you agree that personal data may be transferred to third party platforms. We have provided more information on this in our privacy policy.

    Doesn't Hanteo only count certain stores while Gaon counts all shipments?

    Quote from Smoked Mustard & Rosemary Rabbit (241)

    A 20k on hanteo and 90k in gaon is a huge difference

    I guess, but hanteo is not going to count sales that are not certified by them. If a US fan was to buy an album from Target or Amazon, it will not count on Hanteo. However, it will count on Gaon as they count on all shipments.

    Quote from Smoked Mustard & Rosemary Rabbit (241)

    Jyp overshipping albums? The file version sold 93000 on gaon.

    External Content twitter.com
    Content embedded from external sources will not be displayed without your consent.
    Through the activation of external content, you agree that personal data may be transferred to third party platforms. We have provided more information on this in our privacy policy.

    JYPE overship albums? That's rich when you have an NCT album with 1m sales missing on Hanteo and BP the Album with nearly 600k difference lol.

  • This thread contains 32 more posts that have been hidden for guests, please register yourself or login to continue reading.

Participate now!

Don’t have an account yet? Register yourself now and be a part of our community!

Register Yourself Login