How popular would Produce groups be, if they didn't disband and had 7 years?

i dont see the success of these groups as overwhelming since big scale survival shows give groups immediate success not depending on the music quality since the fans are already attached to them, but in the long run it depends on their music imo

Depends a lot on the group.

IoI probably would have some good years as their hit was very very very which was near to their disband.

Wannaone probably would have physicals sales, their peak digitals was their debut and if I have to be honest they were a bit declining.

IZONE would definitely have physical sales and their fandom would have increased.

X1 no clue.

I completely agree with icy

I think that given time all of them would have been stable powerhouses..and some of the top groups for sure...

i honestly think I.O.I would be dominating with that member line-up. I think top 3 ggs would be BP > I.O.I = TW or even BP > I.O.I > TW, their career had just barely begun when they disbanded

Quote from icyruios

, IZ*ONE blew every other 4th Gen GG out of the water and only by IZ*ONE disbanding can they finally discuss this topic properly without IZ*ONE as a threat.

I like izone alot but this isn't true. Izone outside of physical sales was never really a threat. Their fandom was very passionate.

If we take Spotify and yt they fall behind by quite a lot in front of many ggs.

Same goes for Korean charting.

U could say they had huge streams on melon compared to any new group but that was more of fandom work which is impressive.

Popularity wise many ggs r easily above them.

I am not dismissing their crazy success but physicals aren't the only thing.

I do think they could have toured japan really well if there wasn't any pandemic.

Also people overrate ioi i feel. One song shows nothing. They wouldn't be close to twice or bp.

If W1 was around they would most probably be 3rd top bg of 3rd gen.

X1 not sure.

Quote from icyruios

IZ*ONE definitely had a lot more achievement wise though and yes you probably say because they've been around longer. But still it doesn't change that other GGs probably need many many more comebacks to prove themselves, which I think eventually they might.

What I'm curious is that if IZ*ONE didn't disband, and continue for another 5 more years like a normal group, together with all the other newer groups that debut from 2019 onwards how would they compare

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That spoiler pretty much proved what I said. They were a threat when it came to album sales and fandom size. I mostly compare itzy to izone and the former beats the latter in everything except sales. I considered these 2 to be the top ggs of 4th gen.

Also izone bsides did quite well because of the solid fanbase. Something alot of ggs can't do.

And like i mentioned they would tour well especially in Japan. And if they could they would outsell many ggs at touring.

Looks like they had the best stats in music shows after itzy.

The question is if these produce groups could continue their growth. They have huge start advantage but the others have the continuing to progress advantage. I think w1 sales were going down with time. To keep up they would need to continue to attract fans instead of just depending on the older pre debut ones.

My 2021 prediction if they never disbanded :

IOI :

They debuted very solidly in 2016 and could be argued as one of the strongest debut this year with Blackpink. Bp would be better digitally and IOI would be better physically. The IOI tragectory from now on would be similar to Twice not Bp, but would follow a more 4th gen trend of big jump in sales on some comebacks, or barely improving sales on others.

Looking at their lineup and mainly Somi, Chungha and Nayoung/Kyulkyung, they would probably create a more mature subunit with Nayoung Somi and Chungha (maybe other members) around late 2017 and early 2018 like Pristin V.

With another top groups like Twice being very active, groups like GFriend and Momoland would probably suffer more and groups like Dia, Gugudan and WM would probably not work or straight up not existing.

About sales, I predict a very big raise in 2017, reaching around 250k, 300k in 2018 and with the BTS and Kpop explosions in sales in 2019 they would probably begin to hover just under 400k. In 2020, they would probably stagnate like Twice around 400k (except having a massive hit). In 2021 they would probably reach 500k.

About their discography, I decided to stay consistent and just say they have successful comebacks, not overly successful comebacks like Bp. Of cours they could imitate Bp trajectory, but it would mean getting hits like DDDD and HYLT and that would be very unlikely.

Wanna One :

Of course when they debuted in 2017, they were very massive and sold 1m almost instantly. After 2018, they pretty clearly became a Top 3 group but disbanded in early 2019. The IOI popularity would probably not affect them at all, and they would continue to grow in 2019 and probably becoming the very clear 2nd biggest group in Kpop behind BTS, with Exo's inactivity.

Their sales would probably reach close to 2m, and maybe 3 millions around 2020/21. Their massive popularity would probably not hurt Seventeen as a massive part of their fandoms are here since 2018 and before.

The very interesting theory would be that NCT wouldn't be as popular, with Wanna One letting way less room for another big groups in the 2020s. This would probably lead to SM being a lot more aggressive on the market.

IZ*One :

IZ*One would be imo one of the most interesting group as IOI popularity will almost surely change their path. First, this will surely help their debut, as the hype for the sister group to big name and probably top 3 gg IOI would be massive. This would help IZ*One reaching more fans in the first 2 years, surely establishing themselves as a top 5 group quickly.

But with IOI and IZ*One reaching great highs quickly, the GG landscape in 2019 would massively change. In our real 2019, the GG landscape was very open, as a clear top 3 was formed and the rest was very open. GFriend couldn't take a sure top 4 place, and (G)I-DLE and ITZY could clearly thrive. Now we have Twice, Bp, RV, IOI as a sure top 4 and massive rookie IZ*ONE with certainty top 5. ITZY and other younger groups would probably have a hard time finding a place, and I could see JYP delaying ITZY debut.

In our 2020, IZ*ONE break out as one of the biggest group, whereas now they would probably gian popularity more consistently, reaching high levels in 2019 and probably reaching irl status in 2020 too. It wouldn't surprise me if they reach 300k in 2020, though they would probably be slower on the 400k. 2021 of course we don't know but groups like (G)I-DLE and ITZY have a good chance of being way smaller. Also SM new gg (maybe Aespa maybe not) would probably debut earlier and with a way more massive debut with more promotions etc.

This would probably began in 2020 the most insane GG rivalry we ever had, with 4/5 groups competing.

X1 :

X1 with Wanna One popularity would probably be a little bit bigger during their debut (not a lot more cz they were already massive irl). They would probably reach 1m quickly, and NCT would have way harder times reaching their popularity in 2020. Honestly never though too much about what X1 would be except a million seller in 2020.