KPop back to its "Natural Borders " - Japan feeding most of KPop's overseas concerts

    k 2013, strong in Japan and China (which is off for now), some presence in Southeast Asia (incl Australia) and no presence in the west.


    KPop's 'natural borders' are Japan, SE Asia (incl Australia) and the Sinosphere. Its presence outside there was always weak.


    BTS and BlackPink , and Twice to some lesser degree, went to Europe, North America and Latin America, entered the UN Headquarters, The White House and various stadiums in the above continents, but now BTS is moribund and BP has effectively disbanded.

    I have written a lot of times to say that BTS' comeback concert would not be more likely to succeed than Napoleon's comeback concert at a place called Mont St. Jean, Belgium (although that country didn't exist at that time, being part of Netherlands), with his chief guitarist missing, drummer going AWOL, rhythm guitarist playing the wrong tune and the new base guitarist attending another concert nearby.


    The sad statistics of KPop doing 'world tours' in 2024


    (For this I include figures from Korea. in case figures are unavailable I take educated guesses.)


    Stray Kids - estimated to be 540k, 6 days at Japanese domes, meaning about 280k - more than half


    NCT Dream - about 500k, 6 days in Korea (at the Gochuck) for about 120k, 5 days in Japan for about 220k, about 40%

    (SM concerts tend to not fill the entire venue so real number is hard to determine)


    IVE - about 450k in 2024 leg. 2 days in Korea (Gymnastics) about 24k.6 days in Japan, 4 days in smaller venues for about 60k, 2 days at Tokyo Dome for about 90k, so 150k in Japan, about 33%


    Twice - (2024 leg only)

    I assume all non-Japanese venues to be 45,000

    5 days in US, Mexico and Brazil for 225k

    6 days in Japanese stadiums. Assuming 63,000 each, 380k

    so more than 60% in Japan. Out of about 590k, 380k from Japan


    IU

    Estimated to be 500k. The size of the Soccer Stadium concert not determined yet, but I will assume 90k since that was the cap for Lim Youngwoong's concert.

    145k in Korea, 54,000 in Japan for about 11%.



    So, if we take out Japan, the unthinkable has happened - the singer who has contribute the least amount to KPop's worldwide expansion had the biggest world tour if Japan is not counted!


    In other words, KPop has been pushed out from everywhere around the world, except Japan and southeast asia, with some sliver of control still remaining but slowly being eroded as time goes on and newer acts are not keeping up.


    And Japan has become KPop's dominant market again, way , way more dominant than others.


    Am I the only person crying for KPop's complete decline?

    Nothing to cry, if you had expected this to happen, as I did.


    Kpop did not expand into the West, no more than Swedish Music did in the 70s. Just BTS & maybe BP did, like ABBA did. Rest are merely riding on the reducing returns.


    The novelty of singing-dancing synch groups with a fandom culture, caught the moment in late 2010s, that's all. There is no way a non-English based industry non-Western origins is going to have sustained success in the Western market.

    It will only be diminishing returns.


    BTS' return will give some boost in 2025, then it will also peter down.


    IU is irrelevant to that dynamic, she will always have a niche audience among Kpop followers and will not reach much general public in the West -true for all non-English soloists. (or non-spanish)

    Queastion is if it's because the intrest is lower or if it because the companies have come to the conslusion that it's not worth it. But I also always thought that the popularity of kpop would decline in SE Asia in contries like the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia when start to get more domestic groups with similiar concepts as korean and japanese Idol groups.

    What was fatal is that the 4th gen acts did not follow the example of BTS and BP.


    After Abba, there was Europe (the Final Countdown), A-ha (which is Norwegian, similar to Swedish), Ace of Base and others which followed up but KPop had no one following them up.


    Also BTS' success was much larger than ABBA's.



    YG followed BP with Baemon, with the same formula, but people wanted something new and Baemon has not fulfilled.


    The slower success of txt, etc also didn't help.


    IU was seen as the chief domestic rival of BTS and others which might be why she gained the niche she did, which seems to be the max since she is unlikely to do a world tour again next year, probably filming something, and only would return when she feels like it.

    Quote from patrik-k

    Queastion is if it's because the intrest is lower or if it because the companies have come to the conslusion that it's not worth it. But I also always thought that the popularity of kpop would decline in SE Asia in contries like the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia when start to get more domestic groups with similiar concepts as korean and japanese Idol groups.

    The companies are cost conscious, and other than Hybe, they have to use some contractors in continents not named Asia which will eat up most of the profits so they seem to be doing less concerts outside of Asia. (IU is reportedly using the same agency StayC used when the latter did its European concert)


    SE Asia does not have the producing know-how to develop idols as trendy as those in Korea or Japan. It will take them time, plus they have their particular style which does not stick to those who follow KPop.

    Quote from WhyKnock

    SE Asia does not have the producing know-how to develop idols as trendy as those in Korea or Japan. It will take them time, plus they have their particular style which does not stick to those who follow KPop.

    It willl take time sure, but Kpop is nothing new, it's not like the rest of SE Asia is totally back water land, even if it's a big difference between the contries when it come to how developt the contries are. AKB48 have a lot of "sister groups" spread out in the area. Korea copid Japan, added some twist and taste, the rest of SE Asia will do the same, even slowly.

    Post-ABBA cases were merely trailing effects and hardly anyone remembers them.


    BTS success being larger is simply a factor of the market itself being much larger and connected than 50 years ago. Particularly due to digitalization


    It doesn't make any difference to the fact that a cultural act in an unfamiliar language can only be an exception and not mainstream.


    Kpop represented primarily by BTS had its peak in the West, now it will peter down. 10-15 years is the normal period for such things.

    Not sure how you can claim BTS success "was much larger than ABBA's"?..... I would say at the same level maybe and if you only look outside of SE Asia, ABBA is huge in comparsion.


    The biggest success from Sweden is not the artist themself, but probably the producers and songwriters like Max Martin and others that have also made a lot of kpop songs.

    Quote from patrik-k

    Not sure how you can claim BTS success "was much larger than ABBA's"?..... I would say at the same level maybe and if you only look outside of SE Asia, ABBA is huge in comparsion.


    The biggest success from Sweden is not the artist themself, but probably the producers and songwriters like Max Martin and others that have also made a lot of kpop songs.

    Abba did not penetrate most of the world, only the West


    It is true that Swedish composers are quite strong in KPop, influencing the easier to listen songs

    Quote from bbgc

    Kpop did not expand into the West, no more than Swedish Music did in the 70s. Just BTS & maybe BP did, like ABBA did. Rest are merely riding on the reducing returns.

    No Kpop group has come close to the sort of mainstream success ABBA had in the west, not even BTS, but we can also stop pretending only two Kpop groups have made any waves at all.

    Quote from WhyKnock

    Her chief significance was to remind the world that there was someone who was actually winning against BTS, which led the Country scene to a big revival

    You think, people who come across BTS in the West, go around checking if there is some one doing better in Korea, therefore reject BTS to be fans of Morgan Wallen .


    That's quite a convoluted reasoning, even for you.

    Quote from Popper-of-Ks

    No Kpop group has come close to the sort of mainstream success ABBA had in the west, not even BTS, but we can also stop pretending only two Kpop groups have made any waves at all.

    ABBA is the only benchmark we have of a non-English act achieving success in the West, whatever be the extent.


    And aren't you self contradictory when you use "extent" for ABBA vs BTS, then assert that other Kpop groups also have made waves.


    If ABBA >>> BTS, then BTS is >>>>>>>>>>> other Kpop acts, in the West.

    It is only Twice making the headlines now as BP and BTS are in hiatus, and to a less extent SVT & SKZ. Next year BP and BTS will be back.


    Txt & Enhypen seem to be ramping up. 4th gen girl groups are starting to ramp up, since most of them are less than 2.5 years old. But from 4th gen, its looking more and more like only Aespa and Lsf have a chance to maybe get as big as BP/Twice but I'd only give them a small % chance to do so.

    Quote from bbgc

    You think, people who come across BTS in the West, go around checking if there is some one doing better in Korea, therefore reject BTS to be fans of Morgan Wallen .


    That's quite a convoluted reasoning, even for you.

    It did give the organizers of country music a formula - do not compromise and release music the locals would like, which did become the winning formula of country music against BTS.

    Quote from bbgc

    ABBA is the only benchmark we have of a non-English act achieving success in the West, whatever be the extent.


    And aren't you self contradictory when you use "extent" for ABBA vs BTS, then assert that other Kpop groups also have made waves.


    If ABBA >>> BTS, then BTS is >>>>>>>>>>> other Kpop acts, in the West.

    I guess we're just ignoring the fact that all of their big hits were in English. In fact, I don't think I've ever heard an ABBA song that wasn't in English. For this reason I wasn't sure why you even mentioned them.

    :pepe-shrug:


    I'm not contradicting anything. ABBA was significantly more popular than any Kpop act in the west, and I stand by that. I take issue with you claiming only one or two Kpop groups have managed to cross over and the others are just riding their coattails. Not true at all.

    Quote from Popper-of-Ks

    I guess we're just ignoring the fact that all of their big hits were in English. In fact, I don't think I've ever heard an ABBA song that wasn't in English. For this reason I wasn't sure why you even mentioned them.

    :pepe-shrug:


    I'm not contradicting anything. ABBA was significantly more popular than any Kpop act in the west, and I stand by that. I take issue with you claiming only one or two Kpop groups have managed to cross over and the others are just riding their coattails. Not true at all.

    That's similar to BTS, their greatest Hits in the West are English songs, but they broke out with Korean songs even in the West.


    It is pointless to compare extents across so vast a period of 50 years. I won't get into that. It is enough that their theme is similar.


    You take all the issue you want, the fact remains that Kpop in the West, had the most impact with BTS, irrespective of acts before and acts after.

    Only Psy's viral Gangam Style can compare, but that remained as a one-song wonder.


    I will correct myself if any Kpop act beats BTS' records in the West in the future.

    Until then the facts speaks for themselves.


    Again same as ABBA, as WhyKnock mentions, there were other Swedish/Euro acts that followed them, but had insignificant impact.

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