And speaking of debuts, MiSaMo was also announced and debuted in the June-July time frame. All three members did seem to get a boost in followers, but this was relatively short-lived it seems. I suppose that people just don't care as much about Japan-only releases?
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I think a part of that may be because Masterpiece, at least in my opinion was mainly targeted towards J-Onces. Twice as a whole focuses more on maintaining a fanbase that will consistently pay for their work over trying to draw in new listeners, but with Japanese releases it's especially so.
Masterpiece had one performance on Music Station and a showcase that literally only allowed people in the Japanese Twice Fanclub to join. No TV interviews, afaik. So I wouldn't really expect a high influx of new followers. The people they were marketing to (J-Onces) already knew who they were. Sure, I'm sure many new people were introduced to MISAMO, but that wasn't the focus of their marketing.
An update: As we can see in the charts below, Jihyo has surpassed Chaeyoung in Instagram followers. As of July 31st, their follower counts were 9,376,232 versus 9,374,876.
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I'm curious if Jihyo will experience an even larger increase in followers once she actually debuts, as was the case with Nayeon. Will Chaeyoung ever be able to overtake Jihyo again?
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Are there any members who are at risk of being surpassed? It doesn't seem like it.
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I think Jihyo will certainly recieve a boost in followers when her solo debut drops, but whether it will match Nayeon's depends on if "Killin' Me Good" goes viral on Tiktok (I'm still 50/50 on if it does). Pop's virality introduced Nayeon as an artist to people who'd never even heard of kpop, let alone Twice. I have no doubt that Jihyo's solo will be successful, it sounds really good so far, but will it reach non kpop listeners? I hope so, but we'll have to wait and see.
As for if any members are at risk of being surpassed? Considering POP's virality allowed Nayeon to gain over a million followers in a month, Jihyo could surpass Sana but only if "Killin' Me Good" goes viral. Either way, I don't think Chaeyoung will be able to overtake Jihyo regardless unless she herself has a solo debut.