A New Way of Looking at Music Show Wins: Determining "Win Dominance" for Top Girl Groups

  • I recently posted a thread presenting a method for adjusting girl group music show wins by an inflation factor, in order to account for the significant rise in the number of music show wins awarded in recent years.


    There was a lot of good discussion in that thread, and it actually inspired me to create a new way to look at the relative strength of various groups, at least when it comes to music show wins.


    I'm calling this new methodology "Win Dominance", and calculating it is very simple.


    All I do is take the number of wins per year achieved by each girl group, and divide it by the total number of girl group wins in that year, which yields a percentage ("what percentage of total wins did a group capture in a particular year?").


    In effect, this will tell us how dominant each group was for a given year, and, importantly, should not be affected by changes in the number of overall music show wins awarded in a year.


    My calculations are shown below; the figures are current as of the end of 2020:



    Given the table above, it's easy to select the top 10 most dominant yearly performances for girl groups:


    56.00% - Wonder Girls in 2007 (Tell Me)

    39.56% - Twice in 2017 (Knock Knock, Signal, Likey, Heart Shaker)

    39.02% - Wonder Girls in 2008 (So Hot, Nobody)

    37.29% - Girls' Generation in 2010 (Oh!, Run Devil Run, Hoot)

    33.33% - Girls' Generation in 2009 (Gee, Genie)

    29.58% - Apink in 2014 (Mr. Chu, Luv)

    29.29% - GFriend in 2016 (Rough, Navillera)

    28.38% - Girls' Generation in 2015 (Party, Lion Heart)

    27.45% - 2NE1 in 2009 (Fire, I Don't Care)

    26.67% - Twice in 2018 (What Is Love?, Dance the Night Away, Yes or Yes)


    And here's the data, but presented in chart form. Official fandom colours were used when possible:



    Perhaps the most striking thing we see is how dominant Wonder Girls were early on in the Second Generation. It's often said that they brought girl groups back into fashion, and the data support this claim. However, their position dropped drastically once they were sent off to the United States, and Girls' Generation quickly usurped their position. They would reign supreme until around 2016, when we witnessed the clear rise of Third Generation groups such as GFriend and Twice. However, GFriend quickly saw their dominance drop dramatically after their initial success, and they haven't been able to recover. Twice has fared much better, but has also begun demonstrating some weakness in the past two years, which has not been helped by the rise of Blackpink, Iz*One, and Itzy.

  • interesting good work but i still somewhat prefer my own methodology which is total wins per group per year as a ratio/percentage of the amount of times the group promoted (ie. went on music shows).


    You seem like a stats guy (or girl i can never tell) - i like it

  • interesting good work but i still somewhat prefer my own methodology which is total wins per group per year as a ratio/percentage of the amount of times the group promoted (ie. went on music shows).

    Ok, so you're proposing the following: "Win Dominance" = Number of Times an Artist Won in a Given Year ÷ Number of Times an Artist Performed on Music Shows in a Given Year


    I like where you're going with this, but I have two questions:

    1. How do you deal with an artist that never performed on a music show, but still won? In this case, the denominator would be 0, and wouldn't you have a "divide by zero" error?
    2. How do you determine the number of times that an artist performed on music shows in a given year? It seems like you would have to manually count (perhaps by searching for videos on YouTube), which wouldn't be feasible if you're looking at a large number of artists over many years.
  • Ok, so you're proposing the following: "Win Dominance" = Number of Times an Artist Won in a Given Year ÷ Number of Times an Artist Performed on Music Shows in a Given Year


    I like where you're going with this, but I have two questions:

    1. How do you deal with an artist that never performed on a music show, but still won? In this case, the denominator would be 0, and wouldn't you have a "divide by zero" error?
    2. How do you determine the number of times that an artist performed on music shows in a given year? It seems like you would have to manually count (perhaps by searching for videos on YouTube), which wouldn't be feasible if you're looking at a large number of artists over many years.

    interestimg perspective...i wouldn't know...let me put a placeholder here whilr i think about it lol

  • As a further refinement to my initial post, I decided to re-calculate win dominance using total wins for *all* artists (instead of just girl groups) in a given year.


    Whereas my first analysis provided a picture of how a particular girl group compared to other girl groups in a specific year, this analysis compares each group to the broader market encompassing all types of artists. My new calculations are shown below:



    And here's the new top 10 list:


    14.86% - Girls' Generation in 2010 (Oh!, Run Devil Run, Hoot)

    14.69% - Twice in 2017 (Knock Knock, Signal, Likey, Heart Shaker)

    12.78% - GFriend in 2016 (Rough, Navillera)

    12.21% - Wonder Girls in 2008 (So Hot, Nobody)

    11.89% - Girls' Generation in 2009 (Gee, Genie)

    10.61% - Twice in 2018 (What Is Love?, Dance the Night Away, Yes or Yes)

    10.29% - Wonder Girls in 2007 (Tell Me)

    10.13% - Twice in 2016 (Cheer Up, TT)

    9.79% - 2NE1 in 2009 (Fire, I Don't Care)

    9.21% - Apink in 2014 (Mr. Chu, Luv)

    {Honorable mention to Blackpink, since they fell just outside of the top 10 with their 2020 score of 8.24%}


    Shown below is the revised data presented in chart form. Again, fandom colours were used where possible:



    Third Generation girl groups perform better in this analysis compared to my first. This is likely due to girl groups becoming more popular in general in recent years (i.e. GGs as a whole capturing a higher percentage of total wins).

  • This is likely due to girl groups becoming more popular in general in recent years (i.e. GGs as a whole capturing a higher percentage of total wins).

    And just to follow up on this thought, I put together a quick graph showing what percentage of total music show wins girl groups captured in each year from 1981 to 2020:



    As we can see, girl groups weren't really a factor until the late 1990s, when we witnessed the success of First Generation groups such as S.E.S. and Fin.K.L. However, those groups didn't last too long, and girl group wins quickly collapsed in the mid 2000s before being revitalized by the rise of Second Generation groups such as Wonder Girls, starting in 2007. However, Second Generation groups began to decline in the mid 2010s, but we see another uptick in win percentage starting in 2016, with the rise of groups like Twice and GFriend. In general, I would say that girl groups have never been more successful than they are now.

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