Posts by Ronnietheperth

It’s too soon to predict the final number for SOTY award.

For MMA for example, if you look at the gap between TWS/IU and Supernova right now in yearly ULs, it’s around 25 Millions UL difference right now. Supernova actually gained 250k UL a day right now on Plot Twist and 300k UL on LWA. So it will take around 100 days if it still goes by this rate (yes, we know it will definitely take longer) so ideally it can overtake both songs before the end of September and even if it takes longer, there is still enough time to overtake them before the deadline.

If Dynamite can win SOTY with an August release (I know, I know…Dynamite is a global sensation which is a level above Supernova right now), there is nothing stopping Supernova from winning if it can keep up the hype it has right now through the entire year. I think we should wait around August-September to start to see a bigger picture. Like in 2022 when we thought Tomboy had it in the bag for all year long but later realized Love Dive might actually overtake it in the end.

Quote from atropos

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Selection bias

Extend the first period by 2 days (13-24/4/24) and it’s -4 in 12 days

While subtract the last period by 2 days and it’s -12 in 19 days

Also don’t forget that there are new releases that pushed the song down (Spot, Heya, Supernova, Maestro) and also older songs that got pushed up from new releases (Drama, Hype boy, ETA, Super shy)

Edit: And if we look at the next period (16-24/5/24), the song only fell down 3 spots in 9 days. But it’s not fit with the narrative so it got excluded and just picked the period until only 15/5/24.

Who cares about PAK when you just hit your career best in Spotify, still going strong in big charts like Melon and Youtube Music, hitting a new peak in their career and getting an overall great reception for the comeback and also huge anticipation for their 2nd title?

Look at Bam Yang Geng, getting PAK but already down to #15, only few spots higher than Rhapsody of sorrow and To.X which were released months prior.

In Melon old realtime chart, Supernova already surpassed SPOT at 0 AM (and after chart freezing).

Kinda interesting to see how many days it takes to start overtaking SPOT at peak hours.

Probably next morning?

Quote from atropos

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Dammit, and I thought Taeyeon would easily runaway with this year’s Best OST. from award shows but with QOT being a bigger drama (probably one of the biggest cable drama ever) compared with Welcome to Samdalri…I expect Crush to win it for most of them now.

Quote from pchromo4

Do we know the eligibility period for MAMA or MMA? I remember when IU released "Love Poem" mini album in Nov 2019 (with smash hit "Blueming"), the next year MMA conveniently started their award eligibility period the week after IU released so nothing from the album was eligible for nomination lol. November releases are tricky, MMA and MAMA both change their eligibility cut offs every year to whatever suits them. Even early Dec releases may not be safe, depending on award show politics.

I think MMA usually have the cut-off point around mid-November iirc. So December release is probably 99% safe unless MMA wants to f*ck some of December releases for unknown reasons. Late November releases like To.X is probably 80% safe too but anything can happen. Drama is the one that is pretty much on the borderline period and I won’t be surprised if the cut-off period is after their comeback.

Edit: I just checked MMA 2023 eligible period and it’s 4 November 2022 - 1 November 2023 while MMA 2022 is 8 November 2021 - 3 November 2022. So it’s probably safe to say 2 November 2023 is the cut-off date for eligible period this year which means Drama and To.X should be eligible.

Quote from YamaChwan

The context of an IU album drop and two extremely viral songs even she couldn't conquer is important to keep in mind here.

With that competition, nearly every artist and group would "underperform" their usual standards

When Super lady dropped, BYG hasn’t been released yet and Plot Twist was still climbing up in the 90s position (With top 5 being occupied by 4 songs that were 1.5 months old at that point). Not gonna lie, we expected something out of the gate from them, at least Top 5 should be secured at that point.

Quote from atropos

Gidle comeback is no more an underperformance thanks to fate getting popular.

I'd say if super lady and wife show some decent longevity it's a bigger success than ive comeback. Ive may have gotten a #1 but Baddie was a robbing an empty house. Either way and off the record have tragic longevity.

Both aren’t looking that promising tbh. It’s not even 2 months in and they started to drop out from Top 20 in Melon and some charts. Either way is at least in Top 10 for amount of time (but very shit longetivity, I agree).

I still consider this comeback an underperformance by their recent standard. Come on you have 3 #1 consecutive songs in a row but your title track barely cracking Top 10 this comeback?

Quote from atropos

At last . But this will most probably struggle to be a hit in Korea

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Too early to judge, this is only their first week with “Easy”. There are still more promotions + variety appearances to come. And most songs usually peak at their second/third week so it still has time to rise more.

Bibi being the one who challenges IU for SOTY by looking at the list of who came back during this period, who would have guessed??? Not in my bingo card for sure.

Just the start of the year and we already have IU, Taeyeon, Bibi on the top of digital chart this year for female solo artists.

Quote from BEG4DAWIN

TAEYEON?

The BTS singer or the SNSD singer?

WHUTTTT????

Quote from Alex_Murphy

Exactly. That's how nice Soyeon is.

WTF!!!!???

With 59 seconds and 3 collabs + narrator

(Jump to Shhh… recording room)

PD: Okay Hyein, let’s begin recording

Hyein: *breathes in*

PD: Great job!!! Your part here is done. You can go home now…oh say hello to Min Hee Jin for me.

Quote from uwuwu-98

Way back home was the 2nd song to be accused (and honestly I think even some people accusing it finally admitted it was huge eventually because it was really really huge), first one was Nilo's Pass by. Anyway the problem weren't these 2 but after these kpop fans started to use the sajaegi argument against any song coming from a soloist that blocked their favs. In 2019 and the first half of 2020 there were like 10? different songs accused of sajaegi and some of the accusations really made no sense.

However, I think that Melon didn't change the chart for this, this is a personal opinion and I could be wrong of course but I'm almost sure it was fandom streaming. In that moment it was becoming worse with fandoms becoming stronger and Mr trot happened in early 2020 and their singers were starting to chart like top groups with big fandoms at night too. The 24h chart system doesn't really have any effect to stop the supposed sajaegi, but it would end the realtime chart which was where the fandom streaming was reflected. A big change like that was also the perfect moment to say the bullshit that they were doing it to stop sajaegi so people would praise them but if you think about it a simple chart system wouldn't change "bought" streams in any way. Back then I personally was a good idea tbh, but I (and ig Melon, regardless of if it was because of this or because the sajaegi fr) definitely underrated the effect it would have in the charting of other songs.

Anyway looking at the fall of other charts, all this situation can't be just because of the chart system, it's just one of probably many reasons.

Yes, still remember about it. I can confirm Nilo was the first and the reason it got so many attention because the song eventually blocked “What is love” from PAK. Of course, fans would be livid about this but it started to blow up because THE Park Jin Young himself also accused Melon about this. (There is still a false narrative that fans believe about JYP artists not charting well and got blocked from Melon because of this issue. And you can’t even correct them.)

Then kpop fans wouldn’t fact checked anything anymore and started to attack anything that isn’t kpop related that’s getting #1 and being a riser as “Sajaegi”. Shaun is the next one (and he got so much hate that he said he eventually had anxiety when performing his song), Lim Jae Hyun also was one of them (he also got this time but much milder), I remember Kassy got some backlash with “You’re still beautiful” and Jannabi at first (but people realized it was a real sensational hit so they quickly went silent), other artists were Song Haye, Yoon Min Soo etc. who got mentioned by drunk Park Kyung (who f*ck around and found out later) and last one was probably Changmo who blocked “Psycho” from PAK and fans got mad and attacked him (but it got backfired when public sided with him when he posted about this instead because it was a real hit). And I think no one was catching any stray after that until recently I guess.

Quote from K-PL

To get 1st weekly in Youtube Korea. If they released at the same time Melon ULs would be higher, but she wouldn't have got 1st weekly in Youtube Korea which she just barely got, and potentially no PAKs.

Or to summarize all of this, IU is right…again.

Tbh, To.X performance literally surprised me the most. It’s not the type of a music that screams “big hit” at all. So reaching Top 3 is already exceeding my expectation but 2 months past and it overtook Drama, Perfect night and Rhapsody of sorrow? Not in my calculation at all.

Sad that such a good performance would get overshadowed by IU who would probably go on and sweep all best female solo awards this year.

What is FLO chart? I only know LYW chart…

What are these “IVE is finished!!!” doomposts we have recently?

Unless they have 3 consecutive flop comebacks (which is currently 0 on the “flop-o-meter” so far), being irrelevant is out of the question for IVE right now.

Btw, Taeyeon’s OST “Dream” (a remake of Cho Yong Pil’s song) is rising back to Top 100 after the show ended last Sunday. Pretty late than usual but still nice to see considering her power as an OST queen is fading a bit with recent OST releases that didn’t perform as well as her older ones. (Also, To.X still holding strong as #2 in big charts as well which is nice. A bit regretful that she may get shadowed by IU long awaited comeback again though )

Well, we have a good run guys. This year is over.

Quote from bttttoo

I think PN will stop at 6 weeks , rhapsody is catching up fast. there is a possibility PN will drop to third or even fourth place.

3rd is possible with the gap between them and To.X is still shrinking (probably Monday is my current prediction) but I think they are still safe from Drama until (G)i-dle release their album at least.