Posts by Jirachier

1) Jin currently has to enlist by the end of 2021, if BTS is eligible for the new postponement law that gives him two extra years, so he won't have to enlist until December 2023, not 2022.

2) In Big Hit's fillings when they went public this is what they said

This is Big Hit saying it, so it has way more weight than some analyst assumptions. The important part is "working around the schedule with flexibly with the bandmates who are available." That sentence implies the members will not enlist together.

So no I do not think they will enlist together.

Quote from 0ppar

won't make a difference...lisa akgaes didn't buy rose's album and rose akgae's ain't gonna buy lisa's album.

Yeah except it's not as if akgaes buy 100% of albums so that is something to account for.

I think she'll probably sell 700-800k.

She could eventually get to 1M if she had more comebacks in the future but I don't think it will be the case on the first release, especially when Rose just had her solo and a lot of fans must have used money on that.

Please stop throwing around words like misogyny so casually.

BGs and GGs are judged relative to their performance in recent years, and because BGs digitals have crashed it is no longer a metric that is used to judge boygroups and the focus is more on physicals.

Meanwhile GGs are still doing decently on charts so for a GG to be considered successful they have to chart well. On the other-hand GGs are also held to a different standard when it comes to sales. if a GG sells 150k that's really good but if a BG does the same that's just expected of them.

And if a group proves that they can do well in a metric where the rest of the field can't they are still held to that standard by themselves. When ON under-performed there were many people saying BTS flopped and that they were over.

And now that BP can sell 1m+ albums which is beyond what any GG can pull, if their next comeback sells 900k they will still be called flops because now BP are held to their own unique standard.

Quote from JaedaKim

I never said it was 'right', I said it was 'in their rights'. I do hate to say it but honestly it doesn't really matter if the fans agree with what they do. They aren't taking advantage of any laws, they are using a strategy to get the most profit, like I explained to someone else. You're right, they aren't supposed to do the work of the office workers but they can be treated the same. They are given work and they do it. They company IS supposed to help build the group up but before the group's interests, the companies interests come first unfortunately. In a better world the group's totally would have control over the own careers, but in a better world it would be way harder for groups to succeed since there are many groups that don't write any music, or enough to make it if they were on their own.

It's fine if you feel a certain way, I just wanted to explain that I don't excuse the way YG manipulates Blackpink

The way you framed it made it sound as if you agreed with how things currently work. and if you don't agree then I don't understand what is the point of pointing out how things currently work, everyone is aware of how the kpop world operates, that is why people complain about it because if we continue to discuss these issues then hopefully one day it will hit a certain level where we can force it to change, that's literally how anything changes in the real world.

Imagine if every time something messed up happened IRL and people started criticizing then you came out saying "well sorry this is the world we live in just accept it" then how in the world are we supposed to progress ? Don't stifle dissent.

Quote from JaedaKim

Yes they could choose to give them 0 music if they wanted to

The idols aren't in control, nor does the company have to do anything for them

The idols are employees of the company, not the other way around

The company has all control to decide how much music they get, when they get it and if they get it

Companies don't HAVE to do anything for the idols or the fans, because they are a business and they understand PR, money and controlling people

Although it costs a lot to train and house trainees, through BP they have made back all their money spent on them so they don't see it as a priority to give them a constant flow of music because while it would make them a lot of money in long term plans it would cost too much for any short term profit to even be worth it

It's all just for PR, nothing that comes from the companies is about music or the groups, it's about what will get them the most profit at that point in time and what will sustain them long term

I get that fans want more music but from a business standpoint is makes no sense, and YG is a business before it is a music company to cater to fans

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This is such a weird way to look at things.

Labels don't have to do anything but you're talking about it as if it's a right they have been given by society and we all agreed to it, no they're just taking advantage of terrible laws in the music industry where they get too much control over the artists careers.

In the music industry artists are not supposed to be treated the same as an office worker, because that's not what they are. they are contracted to a company where in theory the label is supposed to help them build their brand and and become more successful. In a better world artists would have full control over their careers and labels would only serve as support and yes that is not the world we live in right now, but you're making it sound as if this is how it should be.

I want to know how you come up with these ideas.

If BTS releases 2 albums at normal price with 4 versions like they usually do, combined with their back-catalog and japanese sales, they can outsell any company on their own.

Whenever this issue gets brought up it always ends up with a lot of straw man-ing.

No one said groups from BIG4 should give their sales/numbers to smaller groups, or that they are lazy and don't work hard, that's got nothing to do with talking about label privileges.

Privilege comes up in discussions about popularity of groups, and it is unfair to analyze the success level of these idols without taking their starting point into consideration.

You can take any random kpop group, keep the songs/MVs/etc exactly the same but make them debut under a BIG4 label and they will DEFINITELY end up way more popular than if they weren't under a BIG4 label.

Because being from BIG4 doesn't just give you a higher budget for your music videos, better facilities, etc but it also gives you access to people who will automatically stan you just because from you're a specific label. and even outside of that, the majority of kpop fans will check out your debut because they are curious to see what is the next big thing the BIG4 are coming up with. You also get to performance on important TV shows and you might even get more time than other more successful groups just based on where you're coming from.

Since it's Hardy it means BP will definitely not comeback in the month of July. that is how your read his predictions.

This is the most ridiculous thread I've seen all day.

Following your logic fans of nugugroup485838 should make a thread saying how it's unfair not only the veterans groups have had success for this long but so did temporary groups, meanwhile there are groups out there who flop from their first comeback and don't have enough money to sustain themselves, so shouldn't all of the groups who have had some level of success disband in favor of letting these nugus prosper ?

BTS/EXO/etc don't even share the same fans as I*ZONE, they're in a completely different lane with their fans minding their own business but you somehow found a way to connect their success with I*ZONE's situation, a group whose fans were aware from the very beginning wouldn't last more than a couple years, the members themselves auditioned with that knowledge in mind.

And it's honestly very annoying to read posts like this, the way "older" groups are currently being treated is how all veteran groups should've been treated from the start, it made no sense how when a group works hard and finally reaches a decent level of popularity they get replaced by newer shinier groups, especially if you consider the fact most groups start off without an identity, with members who have yet to master their abilities yet when they finally do so that is when they get replaced ? I hope all gen2/gen3 groups get years and years of activity.

The term gets misused a lot, but in my opinion mediaplay is when a label tries to push a narrative about one of their groups that is untrue to make them seem more successful than they actually are in order to gain more interest, basically "fake it until you make it" kind of deal. And the information they are trying to spread doesn't necessarily have to be completely false, you can simply omits context or facts surrounding it which the reader will not pay attention to it, lying without really lying.

Is it bad ? People can have different opinions on it but for me yes it is, you're basically gaining unearned attention by lying about what you have achieved and it works.

It shouldn't even be up for debate, BTS made BH not the other way around.

For a company to "make" a group they need to be the ones who provided all the elements of success.

If you look at any of the top tier companies right now who can grant their groups privileges it's in the form of high quality MVs, high interest by kpop fans because of the label they're from, pre-existing fanbase, connections in the industry to get them on the most important shows and get them gigs to promote themselves, etc. BTS literally had none of that, and BH was flopping for years with their other artists before BTS came around.

Is BH making good business decisions right now to expand their reach and become a huge company worldwide ? yes, but I feel like a lot of people think they're playing 4 dimensional chess and are just geniuses when in reality it's just the BIG3 are making dumb decisions and BH just got lucky with BTS since it generates hundreds of millions for them, it's the reason the company is valuated in the billions and why you've got all these other companies wanting to make deals with them.

The only thing I will give more credit for to BH is their platform Weverse because that has the potential to become massive, but only if they actually get it there in the future, for now it's pure luck that they were the label who happened to have BTS.

Quote from paradis

As per the new BTS law Jin does not have to enlist till Dec 2023, so after that they could but even then their contract is till 2026 and they will keep being BTS and performing together even if a few enlist.

Jin does have until Dec 2023, but their current contract expires in mid 2024.

The illusion of family labels was created by kpop labels specifically for that reason. and all the big labels try their hardest to turn as many fans into company stans, if you're wondering why they are not showing more effort it's because they literally can't, they have to be very careful in how they do it otherwise fans of the groups will turn against them and be even more adamant to not give other groups a second look.

why is a hardy thread not getting any replies

Quote from HardcoreBLINK

Nope your fandom is complaining I willingly omitted data lol when I just couldn't find so called data & I'm not familiar with bts solo works

You could just edit your OP and clarify how many of BP's streams are coming from solo work and state that while BTS solos exist you don't know what the numbers are.

Quote from I-dont-cAre

This is very interesting thank you for taking the time to write this.

I actually wrote this with bp and nct in mind I wondered if people think they have the same fandom size and you seem to think the same as me. Really thank you for ur reply opened my eyes to some things I haven’t thought of before.

you're welcome, thanks for reading what I wrote, it took quite some time to write lol

It's very hard to do. Streaming definitely isn't it because groups can have different ratios of casual listeners, and depending on the demographics of their fanbase their streams will also vary, and people from different countries behave differently, in some countries they might prefer buying songs and album to streaming.

The second best metric is concert attendance, but this one also comes with its own set of problems, for one you have to factor in the GDP of each country because let's say a group has 100k fans in the US and they also have 100k fans in a poor country, just based on how much money they have you will get significantly less people able to buy a ticket even though it's the same number of hardcore fans.

On top of that, even in the case of two countries where people make about the same amount of money you'll have a difference in culture when it comes to concert attendance, in some places people are more willing to attend concerts of artists they don't know or they only know them on a casual basis. There is also ticket pricing.

The biggest problem with using concert attendance as a metric is the existence of a predetermined number of tickets, as much as labels and event organizers try their best it's hard to judge how many people a group can get to attend their concert, and they will try to be conservative with their estimates, so if a group is constantly growing then their current attendance numbers are gonna be way off relative to how much they can actually pull.

In my personal opinion the best metric is album sales, BUT you still have to factor in a lot of variables, doing a 1 to 1 comparison of album sales between two groups is gonna be incredibly inaccurate.

1) How many version does the album have

2) Price of the album

3) Length of time between comebacks

4) Where the sales are coming from: The same as concert attendance, whether it's a poor country or a rich one will matter a lot, how big is the physical market is in that country, and the strength of the fandom culture in that region.

This also relates to the second variable(price) because not only do albums have different prices from each other, but they can heavily vary depending on where they are sold, an album that cost $20 dollars in Korea might be sold for $50 in another country, And because of that groups who have more fans in areas where albums are more expensive will have their sales reduced.

This is just a guess, I'm gonna use BTS and give my estimate to how big the fandom of other groups is relative to theirs(hardcore fans, no casuals):

- Blackpink 1/4

- NCT 1/4

- Seventeen 1/5

- TWICE 1/12

- TXT 1/14

- Stray Kids 1/16

Quote from Icaro_Ribeiro

Not really a problem besides cannibalizing the same customers deciding which group they will buy tickets merchan and whatnot

Do you see what happens when a group exhaust their fandom financially? Their sales decreases for a while because fans money is not endless and most of kpop fans are either teenagers or young adults with a even more limited money to spend

BTS has already much content to buy, it's better for a company finding younger fans who have no other group to spend money on

Of course having some BTS fans willing to spend money on both groups are just as good as having a brand new fandom, however you can't keep this strategy for many groups ahead because at some point BTS fandom will be so saturated that there will be no point marketing a group as BTS juniors only for the sake of leaving such Juniors in a neverending shadown

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This is EXACTLY it.

What some people here don't realize is kpop operates under a model that is very different from the western one.

For example if Drake features on the song of another artist it doesn't actually hinder him in any way because he and other western artists rely on a massive pool of casual listeners not hardcore fans, so exposing those listeners to other artists doesn't hurt him because they're not focusing on him in the first place.

Whereas in kpop it's all about the hardcore fans, about buying merch, albums, concert tickets etc so any group's whose fandom gets exposted to another runs the risk of ending up in a situation where it becomes a choice between the two because as you said money is limited.

One thing I would like to add is that there is definitely something wrong with it outside of it being a bad strategy, because the company feels entitled to these fans, just because you are managing a group doesn't mean their fans are yours to do as you please, especially when you are actively doing something that is harming that group's success by trying to siphon fans elsewhere for your own benefits that have nothing to do with helping said group.