Posts by Ronnietheperth
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Probably yes. Not tomorrow but it has a chance in Thursday if Day6’s UL still falling after 48 hours past.
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Here is my observation, despite currently low in Top 100 and daily chart, Crazy realtime ranking are higher than some Top 10-20 songs like Armageddon, T.B.H, Fate etc.
So fandom streaming plays a factor in high realtime ranking but there is some hopes that later on it will rise up in Top 100 and daily chart later on.
Younha’s new song is putting a nice realtime ranking too despite it being a Sunday release (very rare thing to do) so let’s see if it will get a Monday boost or not.
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Before 2018, Gaon used to release the weekly number for Downloads and Streams but not Digital index numbers. But then they decided to change the format and revealed only Digital index instead and cut off Downloads and Streams number while put out a “Certification” achievement instead when songs reaching certain numbers.
Well, the achievements are too high to achieve by current standards anyway. No 2020s songs even reached 2.5 Millions download at all so Good job Gaon!!! for this change.
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For MMA SOTY…
Supernova’s only real contender right now are probably only down to Fate, Plot twist and LWA
Advantages:
- Judging by impacts and records alone, the song is the biggest one.
- Their fandom voting power is pretty okay, smaller than IU but probably bigger than (G)-idle and TWS
- The song may have the biggest judge scores out of all contenders
Disadvantages:
- Since the song was released the latest, their number may not catch up to Plot twist/Fate in time before the deadline so some may use this number to say the song didn’t deserve to win SOTY.
Plot twist
Advantages:
- It probably will end up with the highest overall cumulative streams by the end of deadline.
- The song is pretty viral to some degrees and really favored by teenagers/students
Disadvantages:
- It’s the song released by a rookie boy group who still may not be considered as the top artists yet. This will certainly have a big impact on judge scores.
- Their fandom voting power is a big question mark. It can certainly go both ways
- There are still some people who still think the song didn’t have a big enough impact compared to other SOTY in past few years (Dynamite, Love dive, Ditto)
Fate
Advantages:
- It’s the song released by one of the top girl group right now just like Aespa
- The song will probably end up in second overall cumulative streams just after Plot twist.
- The song is pretty viral to some degrees and really favored by teenagers/students
Disadvantages:
- It’s a B-side song, there is very slim chance the award would decide to give the award to a B-side song.
- Their fandom voting power so far in past years hasn’t been that great. Less than Aespa and IU for sure.
LWA
Advantages:
- It’s the song released by freaking IU, enough said.
- Judge scores may have a big favor considering it’s IU.
- Her fandom voting power is one of the biggest so far
Disadvantages:
- The song while have a huge start, has the worst longetivity so far.
- The overall numbers will probably have the least number of all contenders.
Very outside chance: To.X, Bam Yang Geng, Magnetic
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The generations shifted in 2016 and 2022.
If we look at it logically, the 3rd generation really should start by impact standpoint which was in 2016 when there were clearly big shift of top groups (from groups like Bigbang, 2NE1, SNSD, Sistar, AOA, Beast any many more to Exo, BTS, BP, Twice, RV, MMM, Gfriend) same as 2022 when 4th generation groups didn’t get much of spotlights until that year (NJ, IVE, LSF and even Idle).
But I understand that dividing the generation by Debut date is much more easier. However it’s somewhat a bit hilarious that after 4th gen started to get some footing, the 5th gen was determined already after only a year.
Edit: Now let’s wait for 2027-2028 for the 5th gen to really start getting some tractions over 4th generation. And 2029 for 6th gen to start because that’s K-pop for you.
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With Olympics coming up and no music shows in the next 3 weeks, there will be no big releases that can overthrow Supernova.
If Sticky and Klaxon can’t rise enough to overtake it during this period then 12 weeks for #1 Melon will be on locked at this point surpassing Dynamite and making even stronger case for SOTY in MMA for judge scores.
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*sigh* not a hater but I swear to god if this mediocre song gets to #1 then…
(joking
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People give so much shit on JYP for bottling and fumbling ITZY’s individual promotions and opportunities but BEP is also doing the same thing (or even worse) with StayC now. The girls seriously lack individual popularity even though they have so much potential in early years. Now it’s too late with top 4th gen girls and newer girls taking the spot. The only ones I can see a little hype are Yoon and J and it’s still not that much.
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Really? There is no way soyeon didn't make more bank from tomboy/queencard than latata. Maybe she is talking about #1s like baddie that serve no longevity.
External Content x.comContent embedded from external sources will not be displayed without your consent.Through the activation of external content, you agree that personal data may be transferred to third party platforms. We have provided more information on this in our privacy policy.Makes sense. If you look at the daily UL data from 2018-2019, Top 20 daily UL were around 200-250k UL or even 300k UL. Nowadays with only these numbers can get you in Top 3-5 or even #1 easily if the timing is right.
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Aespa currently are in a very favorable position right now for Melon ArOTY
They have the highest cumulative UL right now just from the latest update
External Content x.comContent embedded from external sources will not be displayed without your consent.Through the activation of external content, you agree that personal data may be transferred to third party platforms. We have provided more information on this in our privacy policy.And right now they are still gaining on every other artists even with new releases
Compared Aespa with IU and (G)-idle who has the closest number right now…
Aespa
- Supernova: 300k
- Armageddon: 200k
- Drama: 90k
- Live my life: 40k (the fact that this is under anyone’s radar and still slowly rising)
IU
- Love wins all: 110k
- Holsshi: 45k
- Shopper: 25k
(G)-idle
- Fate: 180k
- Klaxon: 100k (still rising though)
- Super lady: 35k
- Wife: 25k
Except Lim Young Woong insane mass streaming numbers (but cool down a lot this year and he only had 2 songs release this year) can overcome with big judge scores. I think Aespa is a clear frontrunner for ArOTY right now.
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Honestly "Supernova" deserve SOTY if they don't win soty it would be a major scam
Cuz how do you explain that Supernova in 2 months already have more than half of the digital point of Fate and TWS song when all these songs got 6 months to reach these points
External Content twitter.comContent embedded from external sources will not be displayed without your consent.Through the activation of external content, you agree that personal data may be transferred to third party platforms. We have provided more information on this in our privacy policy.As I have said before many times in this thread, let’s all wait until the end of the year/the deadline for year-end award for the final number. Who knows what the final ranking will really be at that point? Maybe there could even be some bigger surprise we aren’t expected. Still, Supernova will probably have an edge on both Fate (no way they give SOTY to a B-side) and Plot twist (a rookie BG) for sure if the number is close.
For Heaven, I expected it to not perform that well with little promotion and the song genre. But falling off Melon Top 100 after only 3 days is really underwhelming by Taeyeon standard. I can’t even remember if there is any songs that performed worse than this, maybe “Something new” or “Dear me”?
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The fact that a “has been” Red velvet first day can pull in 800k in Spotify (with currently 550k in its third week) while a “hot trend” (G)-idle can only get 300k streams really speak a lot about (G)-idle international hype right now.
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Think they will definitely get to Top 10 daily pretty easily with current momentum. Let’s go for Top 5 because they and the song deserve it!!!
) spots today, mostly because of their 10th year anniversary. Don’t know if it will translate to anything meaningful in the next few 
