Aren't you guys talking about 2 different things?
Killingtime appears to be talking about overall, whereas Sobee is focused on the monthly chart for that month releases?
Unless Killingtime thought Psy was a may release (he was April)
Also, people should never be shocked about BG's 1st week numbers on Gaon. Downloads help enormously.
The biggest and most national 4th Gen hit is Banana Allergy Monkey by 4th Gen supergroup Oh My Girl Banhana.
Discussion closed. Let's not ask the question again.
She's releasing in a crowded period, after BTS, where UL's are likely to be elevated.
Not saying she can't do top 30 but I expect it to be a highly competitive top 30 from this end of this week till the end of July. Even people like Nayeon may struggle for cut-through.
It'll be interesting to have a total UL comparison for the top 20/30 for this upcoming period, to say Feb this year and this time last year.
People also I feel sometimes vastly over-estimate what success is for soloists too.
I mean yeah Taeyeon gets up there, but many Kpop Soloists only get to 80ish peak and generally bubble in or around the 100 mark on Melon.
Some people are very quick to point out they are flops but most are selling 50k-100k and getting 50-80k uls on a consistent basis. Sure, they aren't mega hits or anything, but it's a respectable showing.
I expect Nayeon to do something similar, maybe peak at 100k uls and hit about 60 on melon then consolidate at about 40-60k uls for a month or two. If she has the right song and the right moment, yeah possibly more, but just want to point out I think measuring soloists vs their group success is not really a fair measure.
I mean there was a fair amount of mixed criticism for WSG Wannabe from Knetz, as well as (personally) the song's a bit meh, but I guess that's never stopped Jae-Suk before.
The MSG and offshots are still going strong, so maybe the lightning didn't strike this time. They've still done pretty well all things considered. There's still plenty of time for WSG to rise.
The next big Digital Monster is most likely BTS... there's a huge amount of comebacks happening over the next 2 months, but it's really BTS, then Aespa, and maybe Itzy if they pull themselves out of the decline that'll make any noise on the digital charts.
Why are people arguing about album sales in the digital thread? Album sales are like the opposite of Digital Charts.
A little bit naughtily due to the public holiday and depressed ULs, but Tomboy has taken back #1 on Melon
For #1 on YEC or overall? Because tomboy 11th week is at 320M while drunken confession was at 196M cmiiw.
Yeah but Drunken Confession is just ticking over 11-13m each week, it's barely moving.
Tomboy is hardly moving either (only dropped 7m from peak) but I feel the fear is Tomboy is more likely to slip long term, while drunken confession will just sit at 11-13m for the rest of the year.
IVE won't challenge it, unless it gets a wildly surprising re-surgence. It peaked less, and already has been overtaken by Tomboy.
That That also seems to be running out of steam (relatively) to Tomboy. Tomboy's been taking back #1 Genie and the UL gap is closing considerably on Melon.
The real problem is most likely Tomboy slips just before catching up to number 1 properly (drunken confession), and because that song is never budging from 12m a week, eventually falls back behind it. This is if we're talking purely overall points for the year, and not focusing on 2022 releases only.
Last I checked the difference was 13m a week, and the overall difference is what, 60k? So that's still a good solid 5-6 weeks where anything can slow down Tomboy.
Just want to point out something, regarding the ridiculous narrative forming that basically anything not top 5 isn't a "hit".
My Bag by Idle. It's charting about 20-30. Little better then a few previous TTs, not quite as good as other TT's. Basically a pre-tomboy TT result, charting wise.
They were performing to University Festival crowds- the entire crowd new and danced to My Bag. They knew the song. They knew the lyrics. They knew the dance.
That's basically the level of most previous tracks by Idle. To say they aren't hits (particularly Latata/Hann/Dumdi) is to just completely misread the situation.
DC's and IDLE's venues are similar capacity. Even TXT had smallish venues. It just appears most labels are being fairly risk averse with their post-covid tours.
I think Hits is subjective. Idle have been very successful for a non big-3/4 company, with no produce hype or previous produce group members.
The only other group I think that's analogous in the current landscape is StayC.
Your big 3 group expecting hundreds of thousands of sales may think Top 20 isn't that great, but for a group from Cube (who's previous female group was CLC) and write all their own music? Yeah those are Hits.
I very highly doubt Idle will go as good as Tomboy next comeback.
It's just not their jam to be hyper-focused on solely GP "bangers". There was a period where Soyeon said they wanted to switch between Artistic Winter and "Poppier" summer CBs, and we saw that pattern emerge with Oh My God, Dumdi (which was until Tomboy their best song in Korea, UL Wise), then Hwaa. Obviously that pattern was disrupted a bit, but I fully expect an "I Burn" like mini album next time, or at the minimum at least something very different from Tomboy, and it won't be clear how Idle go digital wise.
What is less likely is another "Oh My God" - Idle had prepped that before their first cancelled World Tour, and it's one of their most popular international songs, but digitally in Korea, it tanked, and it's very unlikely they'll drink from that well again.
I would say Idle would be pretty happy with top 10-20 next comeback and that's very likely their target, depending on what they want to pursue next comeback (Marilyn Monroe inspired comeback appears on the cards, and the phrase "I'd rather be hated for who I am then loved for who I am not" was the motif for the next album).
I'm not sure if I agree to the conclusion just yet about buying the followers, however the people just dismissing a rather observable anomaly as "just popular" don't understand how trends and data work. There has to be a specific external factor for a change such as that.
Nayeon is possible because of solo teasers, but 2 others also following the same pattern at the same time with the same shift in trends?
@ OP - Viral YT shorts and Tik Toks can often drive sudden engagement, I would examine if there's been a sudden viral tik tok or YT short that has shot up massively and driven engagement, before concluding it's purchased.
