RFK Jr. drops out

  • AllKill VIP

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr. says he's suspending his presidential bid and backing Donald Trump
    Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspended his independent campaign for president Friday and endorsed Donald Trump.
    apnews.com


    RFK Jr. dropping out actually helps Kamala win.

    The Keys to the White House - Wikipedia

    "Lichtman says that if a third party candidate is unusually popular, it signals major discontent with the performance of the incumbent party and counts against them"


    He was the highest polling third party candidate. RFK Jr. dropping out made Key #4 labeled as True, and that means that these 3 keys:

    1. Key #8: No social unrest,
    2. Key #10: No foreign or military failure, and
    3. Key #11: Major foreign or military success

    would all have to be False in order to predict Kamala's defeat.

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    Insightful 1

    Its turning out to be one o the most uncommon presidential election years, ever. Different from the usual nominees are all set in June and campaign through to November.

    I still get to vote for RFK, he is still on the ballot here. It'll be historic, I got to vote for a Kennedy.

    How it impacts the dynamics of the election? Independent Voters vote on principles. Also understand how their vote can be a deal breaker in close races. Kennedy endorses Trump means independents are voting for Trump. In close elections its insurance in Trump's favor.

  • AllKill VIP
    Quote from 4NIA4

    Its turning out to be one o the most uncommon presidential election years, ever. Different from the usual nominees are all set in June and campaign through to November.

    I still get to vote for RFK, he is still on the ballot here. It'll be historic, I got to vote for a Kennedy.

    How it impacts the dynamics of the election? Independent Voters vote on principles. Also understand how their vote can be a deal breaker in close races. Kennedy endorses Trump means independents are voting for Trump. In close elections its insurance in Trump's favor.

    Trump is not guaranteed a victory.


    "The problem with this pack journalism is it misses all the nuances of a presidential campaign and fails to comprehend how presidential elections really work. When you look at the fundamentals of a presidential election based upon the keys to the white house, my prediction system that's been right since 1984, you get a very different picture." -Allan Lichtman


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    Only 3 keys remain in play in order to determine the winner (this was before RFK Jr. dropped out):

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    Insightful 1

    Lichtman's keys are not really in play this time - his whole scheme is based on voters making their own choices. But as in 2020 and 2022, the only thing that matters is whether or not the Democrats can generate enough ballots - legally or illegally - in the cities of Milwaukee, Detroit, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Las Vegas, and Phoenix to swing those states their way.


    The election is very narrow. It takes less than 100,000 ballots to swing it either way. The other 150 million or so votes cast really don't make any difference - Hillary got a huge overvote in California and New York in 2016 and lost - Trump got a huge overvote in Texas and Florida in 2020 and lost. Trump/Vance/Kennedy are now headed for a certain popular vote victory - maybe even a landslide - but it won't make any difference if those six cities can be won - honestly or not.

    Quote from TheHeretic

    Trump/Vance/Kennedy are now headed for a certain popular vote victory - maybe even a landslide - but it won't make any difference if those six cities can be won - honestly or not.

    in what universe are the Republicans gonna win the popular vote. They haven't won the popular vote since GW Bush in 2004 and that was only due to the repercussions of 9/11 and active wars happening. Before that you have to go back to 1988 for them to win the popular vote.

  • AllKill VIP
    Quote from TheHeretic

    Lichtman's keys are not really in play this time

    We'll see on election day :evil:

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    Like 1

    Lichtman's short video also suggests a 'very different picture'. idk much about Lichtman and his formula of prediction.

    Reports of Democratic defections because the Party has gone far field of it's traditional principles. How those 'in the bag for the Dems' voters can't be counted on this election. More variables Lichtman now has to account.

    I got a sense Harris doesn't make it on nher good looks alone. MSM is obscenely covering for her, Propagandizing. idk how much Dems value wise sayings. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Dem voters are going to be shame themselves. As oppositional player I can't watch it, its sad.

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