Posts by KangK

For the top 10, you need at least 200k uls by the time aespa comeback. The chance of this is 50 percent. Sure, they got some momentum right now, but It all depends on the song.

Here the chance for aespa. 15 percent it will reach 300k, 50 percent around or above 200k, 50 percent between 200k and 100k, and 15 percent below 100k.

Pick your poison. I am leaning toward around or above 200k to be realistic which is the top 10. I know this maybe disappointment for some people, but it is the most realistic one base on data and the current environment. It is also the best performance song form a come back this year for 4 gent girlgroup.

Don't expect this to be anywhere near Next level and you won't disappointed.

Quote from SooYoung

no usually if it's an english song SM put (eng version)

it's just that deez and Say are korean lyricist

while all the other songs were compose and produce by foreigner, so i guess they send an english demo and then they hire someone to write the korean lyrics

that's why it's written korean lyrics by

and not just lyricist like it's the case for Deez and saay

Oh that makes sense. It would not surprise me it This turn out to be english song. It time for kpop to explore this for their b side since most of their fans are oversea. Beside, korean don't give a damn about most artists bside.

Quote from bobsyouruncle

thank god lol

2 songs with Yoo Young Jin are all about aespa lore. And I am gona guess aenergy will get the second MV dedicate to the ae.

Yeppi Yeppi might be an English song .

Quote from Artemosia

Wait I was so focused on the songwriters names I just realized it's all new songs lmao We're X3 our discography slay, but SM really doesn't want Next Level to win anything though lol

I think they don't want to pay any more royalty when they don't need to.

look like they will debute at 1 and 3 in the real time, not sure about top 100.

Quote from atropos

Uls r dead too lol. Just look at the #1 song uls. Outside of iu no one can even do 700-800k. Mega hits of this year like butter and nl couldn't even reach 600k even one day on daily iirc. NS has better uls than #1 hits like traffic light and stay from this year. Taking everything into consideration ns and d3 don't have too much difference in performance till now. Longevity wise I don't think it'll sustain like ns. Over there ns will overpower.

OK, I also agree melon uls does go down over the years too. But you told me all because of downloads. I showed you the first 3 weeks the reason Nonstop had more gaon points not because entirely of downloads, but the fact that Nonstop was a bigger song, and it's melons' Uls correspond to the lead it had over D3.

OK, I see we gona disagree on this. I don't think it pointless to compare 2020 songs with 2021 song.

Also, if you can't compare data between the 2 songs and it is pointless, then how do you get the idea that the 2 song had initial similar performance?

Quote from atropos

No point comparing points from 2020 and 2021. The points keep decreasing each year thanks to downloads dying. Overall hardly any difference in initial performance from nonstop to dun dun dance. But i don't expect d3 do as well as ns in longevity.

I agree with you that digital points do go down over the year, but it doesn't make that drastic difference say compare 2018 song like d4 and DTNA. Take a look at the first 3 weeks of melon between Nonstop and Dun dun dance, you can see the gaon point does corresponds to the melon ULs. Nothing suggests that download could have affected gaon point to the point of useless comparison.

Quote from atropos

Actually there isn't much difference between nonstop and dun dun dance's start. Dolphin's start was way weaker. Both nonstop and dolphin outperformed at the top20 and top40-50 onwards.

Actually, they are quite big at the start, but it seem Nonstop is droping faster. I kinda exaggerated a bit when using no where close.

Nonstop. Dun dun dance

Week 01: 34.7 mil 20.2 mil

Week 02: 34.5 mil 27.1 mil

Week 03: 31,2 mil 29.9 mil

Week 18: 15.4 mil 12.7 mil

Total: 422.9 mil 375 mil

Slim chance, As many have already mentioned. Oh my girl did decent after their biggest hit, but still no where close. Brave Girls did way below expectations after rollin. StayC is doing OK, but still below expectations. See the pattern here? It hard to replicate your biggest hit. If you are lucky like Twice, you can have a cheer up and TT. That will no doubt put aespa into the top group. My advice is, don't expect to come anywhere close to NL, and you won't be disappointed.

Quote from foreveraespaaa

External Content twitter.com

Content embedded from external sources will not be displayed without your consent.

Display all external content

Through the activation of external content, you agree that personal data may be transferred to third party platforms. We have provided more information on this in our privacy policy.

I guess I am wrong about stayc taking the top spot. Look like Justin oppa is gaining. I still see aespa topping this chart for a long time. Remix does help, as demonstrated by butter. Aespa got some remixes coming next week, that gona help push this maybe pass 17 weeks. They can go for the record.

shit, I'll stop posting. Some of you are so defensive. Read my post. Stop reading this with emotion.

Quote from ForgottenSoul

Literally second highest female first day on hanteo behind BP, second highest on spotify and your saying a under perform?

I hoped she would do well in Korea but this song doesnt suit Korea at all honestly.

Its also not a teddy song can you clowns actually research.

Wait you edit, so this is not Teddy's song? And stop being defensive and call people clown. This is not a dig at Lisa. Pipe down.

Quote from ForgottenSoul

Literally second highest female first day on hanteo behind BP, second highest on spotify and your saying a under perform?

I am talking about music and korean chart here where most people drag her. Sales and other international chart is guaranteed. Read my post again.

I know she might not do well as the other members, but this is beyond under perform. This is not good for Lisa. Not to be compare with the other troll thread. I am genuinely feel unfair for her. Her song might out of the top 100 on Melon in a few days. It was in Flo a couple hours, but out completely now.

I predicted she would Crack the top 10 even with korean hate and xenophobia because this is a Teddy song and mostly with korean lyrics, but in this case, I was wrong. I have no doubt if Jennie released this, it would have been doing much better.

I suggested YG forget about Korean market with future Lisa's projects. Make the song in English, and if Lisa want to put Thai in there, let her do it. Also, don't just rely Teddy songs, buy the song she likes and let her participate more in term of songs selection and lyrics.

What I am trying to say is, focus on the international market, forget about korea. Don't be confined by teddy's music, so you have more creative freedom. International fan don't give a shit about a particular composer as long the songs slap.

I think Lisa will do great even with korea xenophobia. If this is not Teddy' song, then the outcome might have been different. She will get in the Top 10 for sure. Higher will depend on the song.

Quote from Jenchulichaengbp

Then it's far away from being the biggest hit

So we still judging a song by pak now.. what years is it? Go here guyso.me and compare peak and longevity you can pretty much predict which song will be the biggest or already the biggest song.

Like I said, beside Rollins and D4, it is corrected according to the thread title. But as of right now, I say No. Need more months of data to see how it last compare to D4 and rollins.

Quote from poteto

Total exports of K-pop albums in July this year surged 3.6 times year-on-year to $26 million (30.7 billion won). Sales coming from China reached $8.25 million, which was the biggest amount ever. But the Chinese regulation is expected to affect this trend, while local securities firms say they will have to see the actual impact of the regulations during the third quarter of this year before estimating monetary losses.

Source: https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=315074

This is a good article.

lol at those people said that china market does not affect their fav. That like 1/3 overall for physical sale. It's gona affect everyone.

Quote from alexS

so basically, as long as they can control it, the amount of fandom and amount of money spent and who spends those moneys. It's fine.

But what happens to those spending those moneys? they just disappear right?

What do you mean dissappear? You mean the amount go over the threshold?

china is not banning kpop now. Kpop has been partially banned in China since forever, but you can still support your fav with buying physical albums and fund raising birthday gifts. Kpop music is still publish in many major chart in china. Basically all china banned was physical promotion. This recent policy apply to the Chinese entertainment as a whole. They are more strict on fanbase because of the toxic nature. It just happen kpop fanbase, mostly bars are affected by the new policy. They can still buy Albums, just not raising money cross certain threshold.