I have studied Kpop history for a while, and 2025 looks like it will be a replay of 2015.
Exo's Growl blasted off the 2nd Generation and seemed to end it, but on April 2014 the ferry incident, which shut down Kpop for months, occurred.
The ethos in Korea changed, and IU, a domestic singer not relevant outside of Korea, released remakes of 1980s ballads which did capture the Korean psyche.
Exo and IU fought a very deadly struggle, while the former was also plagued by the departures of its two more popular Chinese members who were responsible for about 40% of its revenue (and Exo never really recovered from it).
with its depleted forces, Exo finally defeated IU on MAMA 2014, when EXO won two Grand Prizes while IU was given the Lifetime Achievement Award , making her a has been , Senior Singer who is eternally ineligible from receiving a Grand Prize from MAMA ever again.
However, Exo spent all of its energy defeating IU, and on 2015 Big Bang returned on its full force.
Exo was defeated by Big Bang, who restored the 2nd Generation.
JYPE was completely shut out, only having one #1 , by a Baek Ayeon, selected from the KPop star audition, a ballad. It was the worst year of JYPE, and the debut of Twice was not felt initially.
And two acts from smaller outfits, BTS, and GFriend, would have their time of day.
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On 2023 , New Jeans' Ditto and Super Shy finally seemed to blast off the 3rd Generation.
New Jeans had defeated Jungkook, who will probably have the last #1 from Billboard Hot 100 by a Kpop act (Rose's current song, involving no Koreans, is NOT KPop) and established itself as the top act of KPop.
What happened in New Jeans on 2024 need not to be told again. aespa and Illit released songs, which did well in Korea , but both are about to be crushed by the forces of Roseanne Park.
With New Jeans mostly out of contention no matter what happens, and aespa and Illit, focusing mostly on Japan, not being acts strong enough to challenge the throne, it seems 2025 will be the restoration of the 3rd Generation.
I kind of feel melancholic about that. The long awaited BTS - BlackPink bout will probably occur.
However, if the bout had occurred on 2021, when the entire world watching, it would have been the bout of a century, only comparable with the Muhammad Ali vs George Foreman bout in 1973.
Instead, thanks to YG's strange philosophy, BlackPink only did some sundry activities in 2021, letting IU, yes that IU above, to deal with BTS in Korea. (Ironically IU did beat BTS in Korea on 2021, making her the chief rival of BTS at least in Korea)
The BTS-BlackPink fight on 2021 would have been global, fought in every continent, as their allies and supporters would have come forth in full force , enormously strengthening the stranglehold of Kpop on the entire world instead of IU whose reach outside of Korea was nonexistent.
Instead the projected BTS-BlackPink fight in 2025 will mostly be confined to Asia, as Donald Trump is now likely to retake White House and the American ethos would be more hostile to Kpop.
with New Jeans not likely to be able to do anything against BTS and BlackPink, and aespa and Illit too weak to stop them, it seems 2025 will see a resurgence of the 3rd Gen, suffocating the 4th Gen.
