Everyone in Japan will be called Sato by 2531 unless marriage law changed, says professor

Sato will become the only option by 2531, suggests modelling as part of campaign to overturn outdated law requiring spouses to have same surname

www.theguardian.com

Everyone in Japan will be called Sato by 2531 unless marriage law changed, says professor

Japanese citizens will all have the same family name in 500 years’ time unless married couples are permitted to use separate surnames, a new study has suggested as part of a campaign to update a civil code dating back to the late 1800s.The study, led by Hiroshi Yoshida, a professor of economy at Tohoku University, projected that if Japan continues to insist that couples select a single surname, every single Japanese person will be known as “Sato-san” by 2531.

“If everyone becomes Sato, we may have to be addressed by our first names or by numbers,” he said, according to the Mainichi. “I don’t think that would be a good world to live in.”

Some social media users wrongly assumed the study, first reported on Monday but published in March, was an April fools’ day prank, but Yoshida said he wanted it to give people pause for thought.

A nation of Satos “will not only be inconvenient but also undermine individual dignity,” he said, according to the Asahi Shimbun, adding that the trend would also lead to the loss of family and regional heritage.

According to Yoshida’s calculations, the proportion of Japanese named Sato increased 1.0083 times from 2022 to 2023. Assuming the rate remains constant and there is no change to the law on surnames, around half of the Japanese population will have that name in 2446, rising to 100% in 2531.

Quote from patrik-k

I read that article earlier today and it's sounds like bullshit to me because the % with the same surename should not change that much over they years.

Quote from bartkun

I don't think it works like that

what if Sato family would suddenly have more daughters than sons?

or if they decided to not have children, or to not even get married at all?

and if for example people who have Suzuki family which is 2nd most common surname in Japan would be on richer side and thus have more kids because they will have more money for it

there is just too many variables here

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Quote from SandyBee3

Something is off with the statistics

the logic that because the number of Satos increased during the 2022 - 2023 period at a set rate that you can extrapolate that to the next 500 years is of course flawed but that is no surprise because this guy is one of the advocates for the change to the civil code so he does has an ulterior reason to make grandiose claims

that said the distribution of family names in Japan is interesting, i don't have good examples but i know that just a handful of names made up a huge percentage of the population while there are tens of thousands of names that are just shared by few dozen people each, iirc of the of Japanese members of TWICE has an incredible rare surname like less than 100 people share her family name but i forgot who it was