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  • It's a tossup, but he will probably win. Democrats are running a bad campaign; they are chasing fictional centrist voters who they think are going to switch from Republican to Harris. They are doing silly stuff like wheeling Liz Cheney out. Also, Harris has failed to separate herself from Joe Biden.


    They concede the framing on issues to the right such as immigration etc. They always seem to have the policies that the Republicans had a few years ago. Now they are pro border wall etc.


    If they were running a good campaign, they would have been running on issues that their base actually cares about such as universal healthcare, lowering prices in stores, stopping the genocide in gaza, legally coding in the right for abortion, being pro worker/union, increasing the minimum wage, protecting social security by doing things such as removing the salary cap etc.

    The tides are turning.


    I am no expert in US politics since I am not from there, but it seems to me that Democrats have played way too much identity politics and now it's biting their ass. Like they can't openly target certain demographics without pissing off the other. If they try to target young male voters, which they are losing, they'll piss off feminists, if they try to target Christians they'll piss off gays and etc.

  • The tides are turning.


    I am no expert in US politics since I am not from there, but it seems to me that Democrats have played way too much identity politics and now it's biting their ass. Like they can't openly target certain demographics without pissing off the other. If they try to target young male voters, which they are losing, they'll piss off feminists, if they try to target Christians they'll piss off gays and etc.

    Ehh, they will be fine if they just focus on broad issues that people care about. The thing you have to understand about the USA is that both parties are largely beholden to wealthy donors and corporations. The Democrats should be focused on stuff that's actually popular with voters like expanding and protecting the New Deal and protecting and expanding the gains from the Civil Rights. The party is feckless and weak because they serve the donors not the voters. The wealthy donors have no interest in class politics or actually being a left-wing party. They could have also done more to prevent roe from being overturned. They should have made Justices in their own party who were at the end of their life's step down when they had the power to appoint justices to the court.


    And the culture war stuff in the US originates from the right. The current right-wing coalition in the US originates as a reaction to the Civil Rights movement. The passage of roe vs wade in 1973 is the direct cause and catalyst that created the Christian Right in the USA. One of the goals of the right in the US since the 1970s has been to overturn roe vs wade (which they have been successful in).


    If you want to go into a deep dive about the origins of the current Right in the US you would have to look into some organizations such as the Moral Majority, John Birch Society and the Federalist Society.


    Dissent Magazine has three good podcasts episodes on this:


    Know Your Enemy: Overturning Roe, Part One, with the 5-4 Podcast - Dissent Magazine

    Know Your Enemy: Overturning Roe, Part Two, on the Christian Right - Dissent Magazine

    Know Your Enemy: Overturning Roe, Part Three - Dissent Magazine

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    Edited once, last by Yseki ().

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