Stop asking when your girls will become the next global girl group. It's just not likely.
I don't mean offense. My second faves are Lesserafim. But what sets apart the biggest GG's from 3rd gen is that their music is almost cartoonish. And the more cartoonish (you could even say obnoxious) the higher the popularity because it catches more attention. Internationally Psy is still the benchmark. His songs were huge without social media help and without massive fandom inflation. The closer a GG gets to his sound the better, it's that basic. And currently that's Blackpink (no surprise, because he was with YG at the time.)
Asking for opinions on whether IVE or NJ will take over is misguided. It's nice to have smoother GG music again, but they are too subtle. They may end up top kpop girl groups in Korea, but internationally your best bet is still Aespa (if SM stop bothering with diversity and just make variations of Next Level), even Itzy (if they can dial back the obnoxious slightly) or G-Idle. Unfortunately they are all peaking at a time when Blackpink and Twice still dominate, whatever varying sets of statistics say about it.
The next group to take over globally after Blackpink will be a group that is loud and fun, has a strong brand, and good debut timing. Maybe some kind of Twice-Blackpink hybrid. Almost inevitably from Big 4. Just when we are all saying "Wow, 3rd gens have all fallen off, and IVE and NewJeans are still charting on Melon so I guess they're the ones now by default..." that's when the next big group will pop up.
