source: ZDF.de
Translator: Jiminiekookie
How is the omicron-wave going in Germany? The RKI published a model. It eas created from people at the Humbold-Universität in Berlin.
Flatend the curve, there will be more natural imunity against the virus, stated by the RKI. Even if it can be assumed that the vaccines are still highly effective against severe courses, reduced effectiveness against infections leads to higher growth rates with large outbreaks and a potentially high burden on the health system and critical infrastructure.
The health policy spokeswoman for the FDP parliamentary group, Christine Aschenberg-Dugnus, is calling for a timetable for the gradual relaxation of the corona measures.
The uncertainties are high, but calculated reliably, said Prof. Dr. Andreas Schuppert from the RWTH Aachen University. He calculates such models himself for the German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine. "It's definitely one of the best models at the moment."
One factor that was not included in the modelling, however, is the different omicron subtypes. Subtype BA.1 currently dominates, but according to experts, the new subtype BA.2 could be even more transferrable. That could prolong the pandemic because more people get infected with a time delay. The influence of seasonality was also not taken into account, as well as the different contacts between the age groups.
Hospital society: the situation remains tense
“Currently there are 30 percent more Covid patients in the normal wards than in the previous week. The intensive care units are registering more new admissions again, but at a much lower level than in the past,” says Gerald Gass, Chairman of the German Hospital Society.
However, the situation remains tense, also due to the increasing number of staff absenteeism due to illness.
Lauterbach knows the RKI model
According to the RKI itself, the modeling of the RKI and several updates had already been communicated to the Federal Ministry of Health in the past few weeks. He reiterated that, according to model calculations, they could increase further to 400,000 per day.
A DIVI spokeswoman also explains that the association is monitoring the current situation - but does not expect intensive care units to be overloaded again. "That would be the case if we dropped all measures tomorrow." The situation is manageable at the moment. Or like biomedical scientist Dr. Schuppert puts it: "I wouldn't make any far-reaching decisions based solely on the forecasts, except for those that are always right anyway: wear a mask and vaccinate."
